PRODUCTION VS. CONSUMPTION AND THE CARBON CONTENT OF TRADE – A WORLDWIDE ANALYSIS FOR AGRICULTURE

Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Agricultural Productivity Growth, Efficiency Change and Technical Progress in Latin America and the Caribbean

This paper analyzes total factor productivity growth in agriculture in Latin America and the Caribbean between 1961 and 2007 employing the Malmquist Index, a non-parametric methodology that uses data envelopment analysis (DEA) methods. The results show that among developing regions, Latin America and the Caribbean shows the highest agricultural productivity growth. The highest growth within the region has occurred in the last two decades, especially due to improvements in efficiency and the introduction of new technologies. Within the region, land-abundant countries consistently outperform land-constrained countries. Within agriculture, crops and non-ruminant sectors have displayed the strongest growth between 1961 and 2001, and ruminant production performed the worst. Additional analysis of the cases of Brazil and Cuba illustrates potential effects of policies and external shocks on agricultural productivity; policies that do not discriminate against agricultural sectors and that remove price and production distortions may help improve productivity growth.Total factor productivity, Agriculture, Crops, Livestock, Latin America and the Caribbean, Malmquist Index

IMPACT OF PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN CROPS AND LIVESTOCK ON WORLD FOOD TRADE PATTERNS

World food trade patterns have changed in the last 40 years with the share of world trade comprised of bulk commodities falling, and the share of world food trade comprised of processed commodities rising. These changes have been driven by a combination of supply and demand forces. On the demand side, world demand for livestock products and more highly processed food products has been rising more rapidly than that for bulk products. This increasing demand can either be met from domestic production or from foreign production in the latter case resulting in increased international trade. The extent to which the increased demand can be met from domestic production depends importantly on the rate of productivity growth in the various components of the farm and food sector. This is why the relative rates of productivity growth in crops and livestock is also believed to be an important factor in determining the changing composition of trade. This study seeks to understand to what extent productivity growth in crops and livestock has affected world food trade patterns. We do so by first estimating total factor productivity growth in crops and livestock over the past four decades. The results show that productivity growth in crops has been larger in developed countries. However, non-ruminant productivity growth in developing countries has been larger. By incorporating these estimates into a back-casting exercise with the GTAP general equilibrium model, we hope to understand how these differential productivity growth rates have influenced the composition of world food trade.International Relations/Trade,

Innovation Networks in the Learning Economy

This paper presents breakthroughs of the proposal for a methodology to develop innovation networks with virtual links. It considers stages of analysis, design, implementation and follow up and can be applied to both large companies and SMEs. Fragmented approaches have predominance in literature, for this reason we want to close that gap somehow, within the framework of a systemic, dynamic, organic, and transparent approach. The methodology values the already existing contributions, from which new elements have been added, specially the support of electronic networks (ICT). We consider that innovation in networks must transcend spatial frontiers, thus considering virtual links since they turn the organizations faster and more flexible, therefore facilitating a more efficient access to information and knowledge; considered the key aspects in today’s interactive innovation process. The research methodology was bibliographical, documental, and exploratory.

Domestic Support Policies for Agriculture in Ecuador and the U.S.-Andean Countries Free Trade Agreement: An Applied General Equilibrium Assessment

For the past two years the United States and Colombia, Peru and Ecuador have being negotiating a Free Trade Agreement (FTA). One of the main concerns of Ecuador's farmers is the asymmetry that exists between U.S. and Ecuador agricultural sectors. U.S. agriculture is highly subsidized in products such as rice, corn, and soybeans, products that represent an important export and subsistence products for Ecuadorian farmers. To reduce any negative effect that the FTA may have, Ecuador's government is studying land-based payments for rice, corn, soybeans and livestock producers. This program would offer direct initial support to farmers' income after the FTA enters in full effect. The objectives of this paper were twofold. First, estimate the effects on the Ecuadorian economy, and especially on Ecuador's agriculture of the FTA. And second, study the viability of the domestic support program for agriculture proposed by the Ecuadorian government, as well as some alternative domestic support policies. We use a modified version of the GTAP global general equilibrium model specific for agriculture support, called GTAP-AGR. The results show that trade liberalization will negatively affect all agricultural sectors in Ecuador, except for the exporting sectors (bananas, coffee, cocoa, and flowers). Government subsidies are estimated to disproportionally help rice and soybeans producers, but they will not be enough for corn and livestock producers. We conclude that government subsidies should be extended to other sector such as sugar cane and cotton.International Relations/Trade,

Biofuels Potential in Latin America and the Caribbean: Quantitative Considerations and Policy Implications for the Agricultural Sector

Rising oil prices has led to increased interest to replace domestic demand for liquid fuels for transport (petrol and diesel) with biofuel production (ethanol and biodiesel). One of the pioneers in biofuel production is Brazil, which since the 1970s has established a government program that promotes the production and consumption of ethanol. Currently, Brazil is the leading producer of ethanol in the world and has started also programs for biodiesel production based on soybeans, oil palm and other crops. Other countries in Latin America and the Caribbean have also expressed interest in biofuel production, and have started programs, and in some cases the legislation that promotes biofuel production. However, most of the analysis of biofuel crops has been focused in the major countries such as Brazil and Argentina. As most countries in the region embark in biofuel projects and establish national policies on biofuels, there is a need for a roadmap that looks into the technical considerations that biofuel production will require. Most government policies are driven by politics, and in some cases such as the discussion of food production versus biofuel production, there should be technical analysis of increased production of biofuels. For those reasons, this study offers the first complete assessment of the potential of biofuels in Latin America and the Caribbean for 28 countries in the region, based on 12 agricultural and forestry crops. We first identify the biofuel production potential based on current surplus production, as a catalyst of biofuel production in the region. We then estimate the land requirements based on a 5% replacement of domestic liquid fuel demand, and the suitable available area in each country for such replacement. We also project biofuel production and available land area needed to meet food and nutrition targets for countries in the region to 2025. The results of this study show that the crops with the largest potential in Latin America and the Caribbean are sugar canes and cassava. Based on current production levels the conversion of sugar cane into bioethanol could surpass the 5% mix in more than half of the domestic markets of the countries surveyed. For biodiesel, countries with current surplus production that could be transformed to biodiesel and exceed the 5% mix include Argentina, Bolivia, Paraguay, Costa Rica and Honduras. For land, Latin America, particularly South America may have enough suitable land for production of biofuels, specially sugar cane, soybeans and oil palm, the main crops identified in this study. As for food supply and security and the future production of biofuels to 2025, we find that for major food exporters, there is enough land for both food and energy crop production. However, there are some smaller countries, especially in Central America and the Caribbean that may have to decide whether to import food and produce energy from crops. In term of the effect on prices, we find that increased biofuel production may have important price effects the effect may depend we analyze energy crops, traditional crops or byproducts of biofuel production. Finally, in terms of the impact on agricultural structure and land ownership, the most significant structural changes consist in a higher concentration in production and tenure as well as the establishment of new kind of actors and norms. Policies and institutions should be established that enables small producers to take advantage of increased biofuel production, so they can benefit in terms of employment, income, as means for poverty reduction in rural areas of Latin America and the Caribbean.Biofuels, land availability, price effect, agricultural structure, Latin America, Caribbean, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Q42, Q48, Q11, Q15,

Experimental Investigations of the Aerodynamics and Wind Loading of Buildings with Balconies

Balconies constitute an important element of the building design, especially in areas with a mild climate where they represent a characteristic component of the local architecture and provide the occupants an easy access to the environment. Nevertheless, in parallel with the aesthetics and functionality, balconies have an effect on the wind loading of buildings and if poorly designed it could bring catastrophic accidents. Failure of balcony glass handrail panels has been a frequent occurrence during past windstorms. Such failure poses safety concerns for the building residents and generates wind-borne debris affecting other structures downwind. The current methodology for establishing the wind effects on building facades involves determining the design load using the wind provisions of codes and standards (e.g., ASCE 7-16). However, the current methodology does not provide adequate guidance on the wind loading affecting the balcony glass hand railings in residential mid- and high-rise buildings. Large-scale testing of balcony handrail panels is essential as it provides more representative information about the realistic wind effects than the typical small-scale studies. However, as the model increases, the limited dimensions of wind tunnels does not allow simulating the low frequency end of the turbulence spectrum. To address these limitations, the Partial Turbulence Simulation (PTS) method compensate analytically for the effects of the missing low-frequency content of the spectrum. In this method, the turbulence spectrum is divided into two processes, where the high frequencies are simulated in the wind tunnel, and the low frequencies are treated in a quasi-steady manner. This PTS methodology is based on the assumption of Equilibrium of Small-scale Turbulence; however, this assumption is not applicable for tall buildings. The current study is an extension of the PTS to include balcony handrail panels in Tall buildings. Three scale experiments at 1:180, 1:67, and 1:25 were carried out to investigate the wind loading on balconies and the effect of balconies on wind loads of tall buildings. Analysis was compared among model scales and existing codes and standards on pressure coefficients on components and cladding