Explaining the Great Moderation: It is Not the Shocks

Abstract This paper shows that the explanation of the decline in the volatility of GDP growth since the mid-eighties is not the decline in the volatility of exogenous shocks but rather a change in their propagation mechanism. JEL Classification: E32, E37, C32, C5

short-term forecasting The QUEEN of Numbers

EURO area growth may be on the mend, but the risks are far from over and the region is still in for a bumpy ride, reckons Lucrezia Reichlin, a professor at the London Business School who was the first female head of research at th