Targeting Relative Inflation Forecast as Monetary Policy Framework for Adopting the Euro

This study proposes relative inflation forecast targeting as an operational framework of monetary policy for adopting the euro by the EU new Member States. This strategy assumes containing differentials between the domestic and the eurozone inflation forecasts as an operational target. A model prescribing the RIFT framework is presented along with a set of appropriate policy indicator variables and instrument rules. The proposed framework advances the strategy based on relatively strict inflation targeting that is currently pursued by some NMS. Several ARCHclass tests in various functional forms are employed for providing preliminary empirical evidence on convergence of inflation differentials relative to the euro area for Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40140/3/wp754.pd

Monetary Convergence And Risk Premiums In The EU Candidate Countries

This study examines the link between various monetary policy regimes and the ability to manage inflation and exchange rate risk premiums in the EU candidate countries as they undergo monetary convergence to the eurozone. The underlying hypothesis is that a system of 'flexible inflation targeting' may be an optimal policy choice for managing these two categories of risk. A model of inflation and exchange rate risk premiums within the context of inflation targeting is proposed. Recent trends in these risk premiums in Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland are tested by using the GARCH(1,1) methodology.inflation risk premium, exchange rate risk premium, inflation targeting, monetary convergence, transition economies

The Development of Financial Markets in Poland

This project analyzing the development of Polish financial markets sponsored by the USAID grant was aimed at examining selected problems of the banking system and financial markets in Poland. The main criterion for selection of these problems was their potential usefulness for policy-makers at the present stage of the economic transformation. The studies within the project address the issues that require special attention of policy-makers in their efforts to design future stages of the economic transformation and to formulate a program of effective preparations for the EU accession. The topics examined include: the advancement of risk management in the banking system, the economic and legal aspects of capital account liberalization, contagion effects of world financial crises, and sensitivity of financial markets to Exchange rate policies. The studies find visible improvements in the methodology of risk management in the banking system in Poland and in the institutional framework of financial markets. It is further suggested that a larger participation of foreign, more experienced banks Gould improve efficiency of Poland's financial institutions. It remains debatable whether the banks ought to evolve in the directions of universal or specialized institutions. The financial system is prone to contagion effects of external financial crises as documented by the impact of the Asian and the Russian crisis episodes. Several measures aimed at developing an effective cushion against potential contagion effects of financial crisis are proposed. They include: an effective system of bank monitoring and supervision, a lower reliance on debt in relation to equity, a low (less than a multiple of three) ratio of M2 money to foreign exchange reserves, a higher degree of transparency of financial institutions, more transparent fiscal and monetary policies, and a significant increase in national savings. The advancement of capital account liberalization shall not be restrained by taxes on foreign exchange transactions or by similar measures aimed at containing capital flows. Capital controls could be devastating to still very fragile and volatile Polish financial markets.Financial Markets, Poland

A Dynamic Approach to Inflation Targeting in Transition Economies

This study views inflation targeting as a viable regime for more advanced transition economies. A dynamic approach to the trajectory of disinflation and the flexibility of direct inflation targeting is presented in the context of achieving monetary convergence to the EU/EMU. The candidate countries are advised to begin from strict inflation targeting and to follow with a more flexible inflation targeting regime before they establish a necessary 'foundational credibility' and monetary stability. These steps, ultimately followed by the euro-peg, are necessary in preparing for accession to the eurozone. The early experiences of the Czech Republic and Poland with inflation targeting are examined.

Money Rules For The Eurozone Candidate Countries

This study proposes the adoption of money growth rules as indicator variables of monetary policies by the countries converging to a common currency system, in particular, by the eurozone candidate countries. The analytical framework assumes an inflation target as the ultimate policy goal. The converging countries act in essence as “takers” of the inflation target, which, in this case, is the eurozone’s inflation forecast. The study advances a forward-looking money growth model that might be applied to aid monetary convergence to the eurozone. However, feasibility of adopting money growth rules depends on stable relationships between money and target variables, which are low inflation and stable exchange rate. Long-run interactions between these variables are examined for Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic by employing a Johansen cointegration test, along with short-run effects assessed with a vector error correction procedure.common currency system, eurozone, monetary convergence, money growth rules, inflation targeting.

Monetary Convergence of the EU Candidates to the Euro: A Theoretical Framework and Policy Implications

A flexible approach to direct inflation targeting is a viable monetary policy choice for transition economies that is believed to facilitate both the economic transition and the monetary convergence to the euro. Following this assumption, an analytical model investigating the link between the inflation process and monetary variables in transition economies is advanced in this study. The empirical testing is conducted for Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary. The analysis recommends that the monetary convergence begins with inflation targeting and concludes with a full-fledged euroization. It further advocates the application of flexible benchmarks of monetary convergence that would accommodate various non-monetary factors affecting inflation in transition economies.transition economies, European Union candidate countries, inflation targeting, inflation targeting, monetary convergence

Recent Developments in International Currency Derivatives Market: Implications for Poland

This paper examines currency derivatives that have emerged in international financial markets over the past two years, emphasizing the departures of spot exchange rate movements from the macroeconomic fundamentals among the “triad” currencies: the U.S. Dollar (USD), the German Mark (DM), and the Japanese Yen (YE). Sensitivity of exchange rates to key macroeconomic variables (differentials in interest rates, income and inflation) is tested for the “triad” currencies in two periods: 1991-1993 and 1994-1995. In the latter period, some considerable misalignments between forward rates and changes in spot exchange rates are observed. This is contrary to the historical evidence of the validity of the so-called “unbiased forward rate hypothesis” claiming that forward rates are the best predictor of adjustments of spot rates (Levich, 1976). It is argued that the recently observed failure of the relationship between forward rates and lagged spot rates has contributed to significant losses of investors and speculators in international currency derivative markets. The examination of these relationships and the recent empirical developments provides useful lessons for the transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe in their attempts to construct viable modern financial markets. This study limits the scope of recommendations for developing financial markets to the conditions of Poland. It assumes that currency-based derivative transactions may play a pivotal role in reducing systemic risk of external trade and financial contracts in the Polish economy presently undergoing considerable structural adjustments aimed at promoting export and net capital inflows. It further argues that an introduction of financial derivatives in Poland shall be preceded by a construction of sound underlying security markets. A stable currency accompanied by low inflation is necessary prerequisites for a successful functioning of currency-based derivatives.

Recent Developments in International Currency Derivatives Market: Implications for Poland

This paper examines the critical problems of international currency derivatives that have emerged in international financial markets over the past two years, emphasizing the departures of spot exchange rate movements from the macroeconomic fundamentals among the “triad” currencies: the U.S. Dollar (USD), the German Mark (DM), and the Japanese Yen (YE). The macroeconomic variables that theoretically play a predominant role in the exchange rate movements are: differences in comparable market interest rates among the countries (interest rate differentials), differences in the rate of growth of real GDP (income differentials), and differences in the rates of inflation (inflation differentials). The changeable sensitivity of exchange rates to these key variables is tested in this paper for the “triad” currencies in two periods: 1991-1993, and 1994-1995. In the latter period, some considerable misalignments between forward rates and changes in spot exchange rates are observed. This is contrary to the historical evidence of the validity of the so-called “unbiased forward rate hypothesis” claiming that forward rates are the best predictor of adjustments of spot rates (Levich, 1976). It is argued that the recently observed failure of the relationship between forward rates and lagged spot rates has contributed to significant losses of investors and speculators in international currency derivative markets.Poland, International Currency Derivatives, International Financial Markets

Targeting Relative Inflation Forecast as Monetary Policy Framework for Adopting the Euro

This study proposes relative inflation forecast targeting as an operational framework of monetary policy for adopting the euro by the EU new Member States. This strategy assumes containing differentials between the domestic and the eurozone inflation forecasts as an operational target. A model prescribing the RIFT framework is presented along with a set of appropriate policy indicator variables and instrument rules. The proposed framework advances the strategy based on relatively strict inflation targeting that is currently pursued by some NMS. Several ARCHclass tests in various functional forms are employed for providing preliminary empirical evidence on convergence of inflation differentials relative to the euro area for Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary.Inflation targeting; Monetary convergence; Euro adoption; EU new Member States.