A novel approach for prediction of vitamin D status using support vector regression

BACKGROUND Epidemiological evidence suggests that vitamin D deficiency is linked to various chronic diseases. However direct measurement of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentration, the accepted biomarker of vitamin D status, may not be feasible in large epidemiological studies. An alternative approach is to estimate vitamin D status using a predictive model based on parameters derived from questionnaire data. In previous studies, models developed using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) have explained a limited proportion of the variance and predicted values have correlated only modestly with measured values. Here, a new modelling approach, nonlinear radial basis function support vector regression (RBF SVR), was used in prediction of serum 25(OH)D concentration. Predicted scores were compared with those from a MLR model. METHODS Determinants of serum 25(OH)D in Caucasian adults (n = 494) that had been previously identified were modelled using MLR and RBF SVR to develop a 25(OH)D prediction score and then validated in an independent dataset. The correlation between actual and predicted serum 25(OH)D concentrations was analysed with a Pearson correlation coefficient. RESULTS Better correlation was observed between predicted scores and measured 25(OH)D concentrations using the RBF SVR model in comparison with MLR (Pearson correlation coefficient: 0.74 for RBF SVR; 0.51 for MLR). The RBF SVR model was more accurately able to identify individuals with lower 25(OH)D levels (<75 nmol/L). CONCLUSION Using identical determinants, the RBF SVR model provided improved prediction of serum 25(OH)D concentrations and vitamin D deficiency compared with a MLR model, in this dataset.Dr. Guo is funded by an Australian Postgraduate Award. Prof. Lucas is funded by a National Health and Medical Research (NHMRC) Career Development Fellowship and receives research funding from Cancer Australia, NHMRC, and MS Research Australia. Prof. Ponsonby is funded by a NHMRC Research Fellowship and receives research funding from NHMRC and MS Research Australia. The Ausimmune Study was funded by the US National Multiple Sclerosis Society, NHMRC, and MS Research Australia

Vitamin D sufficiency in pregnancy

One year ago, the chief medical officers of the United Kingdom recommended that “All pregnant and breastfeeding women should take a daily supplement containing 10 μg (400 IU) of vitamin D,” to counter the high prevalence of vitamin D deficiency in pregnant women. This was aimed at reducing the associated consequences of deficiency, such as rickets in children and osteomalacia in adults

“Any d*** can make a baby, but it takes a real man to be a dad”: group work for fathers

This article contributes to debates about fathers in social work by examining a group work intervention for fathers in Scotland. We present findings from observations of the ‘dad’s group’ and interviews with seven fathers and staff members. Participating in the dad’s group was found to be an expanded perception and expression of masculinity and fatherhood. The group provided a platform for the men to define and challenge understandings of fatherhood in which they developed a sense of expertise and self-belief as individuals and as fathers. We provide examples of the way that the men manoeuvre against societal barriers, in the context of disadvantage, unemployment and persistent mental health difficulties and prevailing gendered stereotypes and allow the fluid expression of manhood through engaging with non-masculine activities. In consideration of policy and practice implications, we argue that parenting support such as group work for fathers are crucial to improve parenting skills and wellbeing and positive outcomes for children. Acknowledgments. This research was funded by the Big Lottery. Thanks go to the men, staff and other users of the Family Centre for their willingness to participate in this project. Thanks to Andressa Gadda for her role in data collection, analysis and writing. Thank you to the reviewers for their very helpful and detailed comments

Measurement of Epstein-Barr virus DNA load using a novel quantification standard containing two EBV DNA targets and SYBR Green I dye

BACKGROUND Reactivation of Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infection may cause serious, life-threatening complications in immunocompromised individuals. EBV DNA is often detected in EBV-associated disease states, with viral load believed to be a reflection of virus activity. Two separate real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (QPCR) assays using SYBR Green I dye and a single quantification standard containing two EBV genes, Epstein-Barr nuclear antigen-1 (EBNA-1) and BamHI fragment H rightward open reading frame-1 (BHRF-1), were developed to detect and measure absolute EBV DNA load in patients with various EBV-associated diseases. EBV DNA loads and viral capsid antigen (VCA) IgG antibody titres were also quantified on a population sample. RESULTS EBV DNA was measurable in ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid (EDTA) whole blood, peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs), plasma and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples. EBV DNA loads were detectable from 8.0 × 10² to 1.3 × 10⁸ copies/ml in post-transplant lymphoproliferative disease (n = 5), 1.5 × 10³ to 2.0 × 10⁵ copies/ml in infectious mononucleosis (n = 7), 7.5 × 10⁴ to 1.1 × 10⁵ copies/ml in EBV-associated haemophagocytic syndrome (n = 1), 2.0 × 10² to 5.6 × 10³ copies/ml in HIV-infected patients (n = 12), and 2.0 × 10² to 9.1 × 10⁴ copies/ml in the population sample (n = 218). EBNA-1 and BHRF-1 DNA were detected in 11.0% and 21.6% of the population sample respectively. There was a modest correlation between VCA IgG antibody titre and BHRF-1 DNA load (rho = 0.13, p = 0.05) but not EBNA-1 DNA load (rho = 0.11, p = 0.11). CONCLUSION Two sensitive and specific real-time PCR assays using SYBR Green I dye and a single quantification standard containing two EBV DNA targets, were developed for the detection and measurement of EBV DNA load in a variety of clinical samples. These assays have application in the investigation of EBV-related illnesses in immunocompromised individuals.The Ausimmune Study is funded by the National Multiple Sclerosis Society of the USA, the National Health & Medical Research Council (Project Grant 316901) and Multiple Sclerosis Research Australia

Relationships between Social Spending and Childhood Obesity in OECD Countries:An Ecological Study

Objectives The burden of childhood obesity is clustered among children in low-socioeconomic groups. Social spending on children—public welfare expenditure on families and education—may curb childhood obesity by reducing socioeconomic disadvantages. The objective of this study was to examine the relationship between social spending on children and childhood obesity across the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries. Design Ecological study. Setting Data on social spending on children were obtained from the OECD Social Expenditure Database and the OECD educational finance indicators dataset during 2000–2015. Data on childhood obesity were obtained from the NCD Risk Factor Collaboration database. Participants Aggregated statistics on obesity among children aged 5–19 years, estimated for OECD 35 countries based on the measured height and weight on 31.5 million children. Outcome measures Country-level prevalence of obesity among children aged 5–19 years. Results In cross-sectional analyses in 2015, social spending on children was inversely associated with the prevalence of childhood obesity after adjusting for potential confounders (the gross domestic product per capita, unemployment rate, poverty rate, percentage of children aged <20 years and prevalence of childhood obesity in 2000). In addition, when we focused on changes from 2000 to 2015, an average annual increase of US$100 in social spending per child was associated with a decrease in childhood obesity by 0.6 percentage points for girls (p=0.007) and 0.7 percentage points for boys (p=0.04) between 2000 and 2015, after adjusting for the potential confounders. The dimensions of social spending that contributed to these associations between the changes in social spending on children and childhood obesity were early childhood education and care (ECEC) and school education for girls and ECEC for boys. Conclusion Countries that increase social spending on children tend to experience smaller increases in childhood obesit

Bronze Age and Early Saxon activity at Dagenham Heathway, London Borough of Barking and Dagenham

Excavations by Pre-Construct Archaeology Ltd in advance of development of a former school playing field at Dagenham Heathway, in the London Borough of Barking and Dagenham, revealed prehistoric archaeology, dominated by two phases of Late Bronze Age activity. This comprised a series of ditched fields with possible stock management elements, which was superseded by an enclosed settlement containing three roundhouses. The site was not reoccupied again until the Early Saxon period, when a different type of agrarian settlement was established. During either the Middle or Late Saxon period the site was abandoned and another series of field ditches was laid out