Ongoing astrometric microlensing events from VVV and Gaia

6 pages, 2 figures, accepted MNRAS LettersWe extend predictive microlensing event searches using the Vista Variables in the Via Lactea survey and the second Gaia data release. We identify two events with maxima in 2019 that require urgent follow-up. First, we predict that the nearby M2 dwarf L 338-152 will align with a background source with a closest approach of $35^{+35}_{-23}$ mas on 2019 November $16^{+28}_{-27}$ d. This will cause a peak astrometric shift and photometric amplification of the background source of $2.7^{+3.5}_{-1.5}$ mas and $5.6^{+143.2}_{-5.2}$ mmag respectively. This event should be astrometrically detectable by both the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and the Spectro-Polarimetric High-contrast Exoplanet Research instrument on the Very Large Telescope. Secondly, we predict the likely K dwarf NLTT 45128 will lens a background source with a closest approach of $105.3^{+12.2}_{-11.7}$ mas on 2019 September $26^{+15}_{-15}$ d. This will produce a peak astrometric shift of $0.329^{+0.065}_{-0.059}$ mas. NLTT 45128 is only 3.6 magnitudes brighter than the background source which makes it an excellent candidate for follow-up with HST. Characterisation of these signals will allow direct gravitational masses to be inferred for both L 338-152 and NLTT 45128 with an estimated precision of $\sim9$ and $\sim13$ per cent respectively.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

A Direct Stellar Metallicity Determination in the Disk of the Maser Galaxy NGC4258

We present the first direct determination of a stellar metallicity in the spiral galaxy NGC4258 (D=7.6 Mpc) based on the quantitative analysis of a low-resolution (~5 AE) Keck LRIS spectrum of a blue supergiant star located in its disk. A determination of stellar metallicity in this galaxy is important for the absolute calibration of the Cepheid Period-Luminosity relation as an anchor for the extragalactic distance scale and for a better characterization of its dependence as a function of abundance. We find a value 0.2 dex lower than solar metallicity at a galactocentric distance of 8.7 kpc, in agreement with recent HII region studies using the weak forbidden auroral oxygen line at 4363 AE. We determine the effective stellar temperature, gravity, luminosity and line-of-sight extinction of the blue supergiant being studied. We show that it fits well on the flux-weighted gravity--luminosity relation (FGLR), strengthening the potential of this method as a new extragalactic distance indicator.Comment: Accepted for publication by ApJ Letters, 5 pages, 5 figure

The Influence of Fallback Foods on Great Ape Tooth Enamel

Lucas and colleagues recently proposed a model based on fracture and deformation concepts to describe how mammalian tooth enamel may be adapted to the mechanical demands of diet (Lucas et al.: Bioessays 30[2008] 374-385). Here we review the applicability of that model by examining existing data on the food mechanical properties and enamel morphology of great apes (Pan, Pongo, and Gorilla). Particular attention is paid to whether the consumption of fallback foods is likely to play a key role in influencing great ape enamel morphology. Our results suggest that this is indeed the case. We also consider the implications of this conclusion on the evolution of the dentition of extinct hominins

Fracture in teeth—a diagnostic for inferring bite force and tooth function

Teeth are brittle and highly susceptible to cracking. We propose that observations of such cracking can be used as a diagnostic tool for predicting bite force and inferring tooth function in living and fossil mammals. Laboratory tests on model tooth structures and extracted human teeth in simulated biting identify the principal fracture modes in enamel. Examination of museum specimens reveals the presence of similar fractures in a wide range of vertebrates, suggesting that cracks extended during ingestion or mastication. The use of ‘fracture mechanics’ from materials engineering provides elegant relations for quantifying critical bite forces in terms of characteristic tooth size and enamel thickness. The role of enamel microstructure in determining how cracks initiate and propagate within the enamel (and beyond) is discussed. The picture emerges of teeth as damage-tolerant structures, full of internal weaknesses and defects and yet able to contain the expansion of seemingly precarious cracks and fissures within the enamel shell. How the findings impact on dietary pressures forms an undercurrent of the study

Automated Generation of User Guidance by Combining Computation and Deduction

Herewith, a fairly old concept is published for the first time and named "Lucas Interpretation". This has been implemented in a prototype, which has been proved useful in educational practice and has gained academic relevance with an emerging generation of educational mathematics assistants (EMA) based on Computer Theorem Proving (CTP). Automated Theorem Proving (ATP), i.e. deduction, is the most reliable technology used to check user input. However ATP is inherently weak in automatically generating solutions for arbitrary problems in applied mathematics. This weakness is crucial for EMAs: when ATP checks user input as incorrect and the learner gets stuck then the system should be able to suggest possible next steps. The key idea of Lucas Interpretation is to compute the steps of a calculation following a program written in a novel CTP-based programming language, i.e. computation provides the next steps. User guidance is generated by combining deduction and computation: the latter is performed by a specific language interpreter, which works like a debugger and hands over control to the learner at breakpoints, i.e. tactics generating the steps of calculation. The interpreter also builds up logical contexts providing ATP with the data required for checking user input, thus combining computation and deduction. The paper describes the concepts underlying Lucas Interpretation so that open questions can adequately be addressed, and prerequisites for further work are provided.Comment: In Proceedings THedu'11, arXiv:1202.453

Improving Navy MPTE Studies with Model-Driven Big Data

The goal of this research was to improve upon the ability of OPNAV N1 analysts to quickly and efficiently obtain experiment-based information from their computational models. The enhanced information will enable N1’s analysts to better support Navy leadership in resource and policy decisions that shape the future Navy and help it retain and develop its most talented Sailors. This project built on previous collaborations with N1 using data farming to enhance the information gleaned from their Navy talent management models, such as the Officer Strategic Analysis Model (OSAM) model, the Production Resource Optimization (PRO) model, and the Navy Total Force Strength Model (NTFSM). During this research period, (1) Ensign William Desousa (2015) investigated the behavior of economic inputs in NTFSM; (2) Lieutenant Peter Bazalaki (2016) used the new data farming capabilities we developed in OSAM to investigate Surface Warfare Officer (SWO) inventory across a breadth of possibilities; and (3) Lieutenant Allison Hogarth (2016) built, tested, and demonstrated a user interface in Excel that enables users of the PRO model to automatically execute a sophisticated design of experiments—the tool that enables this new capability is known as Production Resource Optimization Model With Experimental Design (PROMWED). In addition to working with the student-officers, the faculty supporting this project performed an empirical study of statistical software packages that may provide better understanding of the high-dimensional behavior of manpower models in the future (Erickson, Ankenman, & Sanchez 2016).Naval Research ProgramPrepared for Topic Sponsor: OPNAV N1; Research POC Name: Mr. Ian AndersoNPS-N16-N154-