The Link between Agricultural Output and the States of Poverty in the Philippines: Evidence from Self-Rated Poverty Data

The high poverty incidence in the county is a concern that needs to be addressed by our policy makers. Official poverty statistics from the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) shows that the reduction in poverty over the past two decades has been quite dismal from 38% in 1988 to 26% in 2009 or less than one percent reduction per year. Since poverty incidence has dynamic patterns, studies using official poverty data encounter difficulty because of limited number of data points. This study builds econometric models in analyzing the movement of poverty in the country using the quarterly self-rated poverty series of the Social Weather Stations. The first model uses Markov Switching to determine the states of poverty. It assumes two states: high and moderate states of poverty. A high 61% of the population considered themselves as poor when the country is in the state of high poverty. In times of moderate poverty, 49.5% of the population considered themselves as poor. The result shows that once the country is in the state of high poverty, it stays there for an average of 24 quarters, or six years, before moving out. The paper then builds a logistic regression model to show what determines the states of high poverty. The model shows that a one-percent increase in agricultural output in the previous quarter reduces the probability of being in the high state of poverty by about 8 percentage points, all things being the same. The study shows that poverty incidence in the country is dynamic and frequent monitoring through self-rated poverty surveys is important in order to assess the effectiveness of the government programs in reducing poverty. The self-rated poverty surveys can complement the official statistics on poverty incidence

The Link between Agricultural Output and the States of Poverty in the Philippines: Evidence from Self-Rated Poverty Data

The high poverty incidence in the county is a concern that needs to be addressed by our policy makers. Official poverty statistics from the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) shows that the reduction in poverty over the past two decades has been quite dismal from 38% in 1988 to 26% in 2009 or less than one percent reduction per year. Since poverty incidence has dynamic patterns, studies using official poverty data encounter difficulty because of limited number of data points. This study builds econometric models in analyzing the movement of poverty in the country using the quarterly self-rated poverty series of the Social Weather Stations. The first model uses Markov Switching to determine the states of poverty. It assumes two states: high and moderate states of poverty. A high 61% of the population considered themselves as poor when the country is in the state of high poverty. In times of moderate poverty, 49.5% of the population considered themselves as poor. The result shows that once the country is in the state of high poverty, it stays there for an average of 24 quarters, or six years, before moving out. The paper then builds a logistic regression model to show what determines the states of high poverty. The model shows that a one-percent increase in agricultural output in the previous quarter reduces the probability of being in the high state of poverty by about 8 percentage points, all things being the same. The study shows that poverty incidence in the country is dynamic and frequent monitoring through self-rated poverty surveys is important in order to assess the effectiveness of the government programs in reducing poverty. The self-rated poverty surveys can complement the official statistics on poverty incidence

The Link between Extreme Poverty and Young Dependents in the Philippines:Evidence from Household Surveys

The high level of extreme poverty or those experiencing hunger in the country is the most pressing issue that needs to be addressed by our policymakers. Official government statistics and data from self-rated hunger surveys show an increasing trend in hunger incidence among households. On the one hand, latest data from the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) show that the percentage of population experiencing hunger almost remained the same from 11.1 percent in 2003 to 10.8 percent in 2009. On the other hand, the Social Weather Stations (SWS) quarterly surveys on hunger incidence show an increasing trend in the percentage of families that experienced hunger, reaching 18.4 percent (about 3.8 million households) in the 2nd Quarter of 2012. This study looks at the determinants of extreme poverty among households using the data from the Family Income and Expenditures Survey (FIES) and the household surveys of SWS. Using a logit model on the pooled data, the results show that presence of a young dependent in the household increases the probability that the household will be extremely poor, controlling for other factors. Other variables that influence the probability of the household being extremely poor are the education of the household head and percentage of cash transfer from abroad. Moreover, regional characteristics such as varying food prices and underemployment rate (quality of jobs) explain a lot about the probability of the household being extremely poor. The study shows that we cannot ignore the evidence linking population growth and poverty. Development policies aimed at addressing poverty incidence in the country must include measures that will manage the country’s bourgeoning population

The Link between Extreme Poverty and Young Dependents in the Philippines:Evidence from Household Surveys

The high level of extreme poverty or those experiencing hunger in the country is the most pressing issue that needs to be addressed by our policymakers. Official government statistics and data from self-rated hunger surveys show an increasing trend in hunger incidence among households. On the one hand, latest data from the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) show that the percentage of population experiencing hunger almost remained the same from 11.1 percent in 2003 to 10.8 percent in 2009. On the other hand, the Social Weather Stations (SWS) quarterly surveys on hunger incidence show an increasing trend in the percentage of families that experienced hunger, reaching 18.4 percent (about 3.8 million households) in the 2nd Quarter of 2012. This study looks at the determinants of extreme poverty among households using the data from the Family Income and Expenditures Survey (FIES) and the household surveys of SWS. Using a logit model on the pooled data, the results show that presence of a young dependent in the household increases the probability that the household will be extremely poor, controlling for other factors. Other variables that influence the probability of the household being extremely poor are the education of the household head and percentage of cash transfer from abroad. Moreover, regional characteristics such as varying food prices and underemployment rate (quality of jobs) explain a lot about the probability of the household being extremely poor. The study shows that we cannot ignore the evidence linking population growth and poverty. Development policies aimed at addressing poverty incidence in the country must include measures that will manage the country’s bourgeoning population

Is Income Growth Enough to Reduce Total Fertility Rate in the Philippines? Empirical Evidence from Regional Panel Data

The population debate in the country has been dynamic and contentious. On the one hand, proponents of population management say that the rapid population growth in the Philippines has hindered the country’s economic development. On the other hand, others are saying that population growth is uncorrelated with economic growth. The core idea behind the link between population and economic growth is the demographic transition. Demographic transition is a change from a situation of high fertility and high mortality to one of low fertility and low mortality. Advocates of speeding the demographic transition placed emphasis on the need of public efforts to speed up the voluntary reduction in fertility rates as rapidly as possible, arguing that demographic transitions, where they have occurred, have typically been accelerated and even triggered, by proactive government policies. Those that are against direct government intervention argue that fertility rates fall when income rises and therefore, policies to increase income should be the main concern. This paper looks at the relationship between per capita income and total fertility rate (TFR), controlling for other factors, using a regional panel econometric model using data from the National Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS), Family Planning Survey (FPS), Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES), Labor Force Survey (LFS) and the Regional Gross Domestic Product (RGDP). The results show that increasing per capita income indeed reduces TFR but its impact is minimal and given that the country average per capita growth is low, it will take some time before the country benefits from the demographic transition through the income effect alone. The results of the analysis can also explain why the decline in fertility rate in the Philippines has been slower in recent times, lagging behind the significant changes in the international scene