Alternative Theories on Economic Growth and the Co-evolution of Macro-Dynamics and Technological Change: A survey.

This paper aims to propose an approach to endogeneous growth considering the relationship between macro-dynamics and technical change. We draw upon two stream of literature: Cumulative causation and its macroscopic view of economic dynamics, and Evo-lutionary economics and its focus on micro-determinants of technical change. This paper presents a survey of the formal representation of the growth process and identifies the possible bridges between these two approaches. Our claim is that merging these two distinct theories might offer a framework to consider the co-evolution of macro-dynamics and technical change.Economic Growth, Technical Change, Cumulative Causation, Evolutionary Theory.

Demand and Technology Determinants of Structural Change and Tertiarisation: An Input-Output Structural Decomposition Analysis for four OECD Countries.

The paper provides fresh empirical evidence on the relative role of changes in final and intermediate demand as affecting the changes in the sectoral structure of advanced economies. These latter have led, over the last three decades, to the massive growth of service sectors. The paper draws upon the recently released OECD Input- Output (I-O) tables. The empirical analysis is based on an I-O Structural Decomposition Analysis carried out on 13 manufacturing and service sectors, from the end of 1960s to the end of 1990s. Although heterogeneous sectoral patterns emerge, we find that the structural changes leading to the growth of services, particularly KIBS (Knowledge Intensive Business Services), are mainly (domestic) demand-led, whereas the role of foreign trade remains marginal even in the last decade. We infer that, even in the case of the most technologically advanced service sectors, (domestic) demand constraints affect the degree of exploitation of technological opportunities and the patterns of growth.Structural change, Growth of Services, Input–Output.

Cumulative Causation and Evolutionary Micro-Founded Technical Change : A Growth Model with Integrated Economies

We propose to develop in this paper an alternative approach to the New Growth Theory to analyse growth rate divergence among integrated economies. The model presented here considers economic growth as a disequilibrium process. It introduces in a cumulative causation framework, micro-founded process of technical change taking into account elements rooted in evolutionary and Neo-Austrian literature. We then attempt to open the ‘Kaldor-Verdoorn law black-box’ using a micro-level modelling of industrial dynamics. We use this framework to study the nature and sources of growth rate divergence, focusing on the effect of some macro-economic parameters (income elasticities) and of some technological parameters (technological opportunities and absorptive capacities). If the results remain broadly in Kaldorian lines, this framework allows for more subtle considerations of growth rate divergence.

Sectoral specialisation and growth rate differences among integrated economies

This paper addresses the question of sectoral specialisation mechanisms and effects on growth rate differences providing an alternative approach to endogenous growth processes. The framework we choose draws on the Kaldorian cumulative causation approach to growth and the evolutionary modelling of technical change and industrial dynamics. The framework developed in the paper is used to consider the following issues: First, the paper addresses the question of sectoral specialisation as an emergent property of the dynamics generated by the model, focusing on the mechanisms leading to and sustaining specialisation patterns. These mechanisms are linked to technology but also demand. Second, the paper investigates the relationship between specialisation patterns and growth rate differences among economies. Specialisation can lead to increases in growth rate differences among economies. We then try to sort out the mechanisms inducing this pattern

The role of technology, organisation, and demand in growth and income distribution

The paper proposes a model that explains cross-country growth divergences over time for different aspects of structural change. The model formalises the links between production technology, firm organisation (functional composition of employment) on the supply side and the endogenous evolution of income distribution and consumption patterns on the demand side. Wage distribution is the main channel between the organisation of firms and consumption patterns, and firm selection is the main trigger of investment in new capital, productivity gains and cumulative growth. The model is able to reproduce empirical stylised facts on growth and income inequality associated with different stages of growth. We use VARs to estimate the causal relations between the three aspects of structural change. We then analyse the effect of the parameters that define the structure of an economy – and the way in which this unfolds through time – on growth and income distribution via numerical simulation. Product variety, differences in consumption preferences, organisational complexity and production technology determine whether the economy experiences a take-off or a stagnating growth, and the associated distribution of income

Evolutionary micro-dynamics and changes in the economic structure

The paper aims to account for the empirical stylised facts related to changes in sectoral structures that have led to the growth of services in most advanced countries over recent decades. A growth model with evolutionary micro-founded structural change is developed, which formalises the role of technical change and changes in intermediate demand as they affect the evolution of the sectoral composition of the economy and macro-economic growth. Firstly, we provide a micro-foundation for the Kaldorian Cumulative Causation mechanism. Secondly, we account for (demand-related) macro-constraints affecting the micro-behaviour of firms in the decision to adopt technology. We also formalise the mechanisms transmitting the effects of micro-behaviour on aggregate growth, via changes in the intermediate linkages and sectoral composition of the economy. The simulated results are based on the use of the actual data, including Input-Output (I-O) coefficients in the case of Germany. Three scenarios are identified, which account for the effects of a set of key parameters on changes in the structure of the economy

Cumulative causation and evolutionary micro-founded technical change: A growth model with integrated economies

We propose to develop in this paper an alternative approach to the New Growth Theory to analyse growth rate divergence among integrated economies. The model presented here considers economic growth as a disequilibrium process. It introduces in a cumulative causation framework, micro-founded process of technical change taking into account elements rooted in evolutionary and Neo-Austrian literature. We then attempt to open the 'Kaldor-Verdoorn law black-box' using a micro-level modelling of industrial dynamics. We use this framework to study the nature and sources of growth rate divergence, focusing on the effect of some macro-economic parameters (income elasticities) and of some technological parameters (technological opportunities and absorptive capacities). If the results remain broadly in Kaldorian lines, this framework allows for more subtle considerations of growth rate divergence

Alternative theories on economic growth and the co-evolution of macro-dynamics and technological change: A survey

This paper aims to propose an approach to endogeneous growth considering the relationship between macro-dynamics and technical change. We draw upon two stream of literature: Cumulative causation and its macroscopic view of economic dynamics, and Evo-lutionary economics and its focus on micro-determinants of technical change. This paper presents a survey of the formal representation of the growth process and identifies the possible bridges between these two approaches. Our claim is that merging these two distinct theories might offer a framework to consider the co-evolution of macro-dynamics and technical change

Demand and technology contribution to structural change and tertiarisation: An input-output structural decomposition analysis

The paper provides fresh empirical evidence on the relative role of changes in final and intermediate demand as affecting the changes in the sectoral structure of advanced economies. These latter have led, over the last three decades, to the massive growth of service sectors. The paper draws upon the recently released OECD Input-Output (I-O) tables. The empirical analysis is based on an I-O Structural Decomposition Analysis carried out on 13 manufacturing and service sectors, from the end of 1960s to the end of 1990s. Although heterogeneous sectoral patterns emerge, we find that the structural changes leading to the growth of services, particularly KIBS (Knowledge Intensive Business Services), are mainly (domestic) demand-led, whereas the role of foreign trade remains marginal even in the last decade. We infer that, even in the case of the most technologically advanced service sectors, (domestic) demand constraints affect the degree of exploitation of technological opportunities and the patterns of growth

Structural change and business cycles: An evolutionary approach

The aim of this paper is to account for both the short-run fluctuations and the very-long run transformations induced by technological change in analysing long-run growth patterns. The paper investigates the possible imprint left by short-run fluctuations on the long run dynamics by affecting the mechanisms underlying structural change. To fulfil this aim, we revert to a growth model with evolutionary microfounded structural change. The model endogenies both technical change and changes in patterns of final and intermediate demand as affecting macro-economic growth, through the structural change of the economy. This work is in line with the attempts to embracing in a unifying framework both neo-Schumpeterian and Keynesian line of thoughts in explaining economic growth. This model directly extends the one presented in Lorentz and Savona (2008). The paper reverts to numerical simulations to investigate both the imprint of various business cycles scenarios on the structural change patterns and the effect of various structural change scenarios on the amplitude of business cycles. We carry out the numerical simulation on the basis of the actual I-O coefficients for Germany. These numerical simulations show us that one the one hand, the factor at the source of business cycles drastically affect the patterns of structural change. On the other hand, the mechanisms at the core of structural change, generates business cycles as a by-product