Inflation and the Macroeconomy: Changes from the 1980s to the 1990s

Over the last 10 years, the level of inflation has been much lower than in the previous two decades. At the same time, the behaviour of inflation has changed profoundly. By surveying the data and the economic research, the author first examines changes in the variability, growth rates, and behaviour of some of the major macroeconomic variables during the 1980s and 1990s. He then looks at how these changes are linked to a shift in the approach of monetary policy over the period. Lastly, he reviews the economic benefits that these changes have had for Canada.

Inflation Targeting and Medium-Term Planning: Some Simple Rules of Thumb

Inflation targeting, a stable macroeconomic environment, and an average growth rate for potential output that is not expected to vary much in the next several years all help households, businesses, and governments in their medium-term economic and financial planning. Several simple rules of thumb can be usefully employed in this planning. Specifically, inflation targeting has maintained most major measures of inflation quite close to the target midpoint on average over a number of years. Combined with a clear fiscal framework, this has contributed to a more stable macroeconomic environment in which output varies less around its potential level. Potential output growth is expected to average around 3 per cent over the next several years. In light of these factors and historical relationships, labour income, profits, and consumer spending will likely grow, on average, by about 5 per cent over the medium term. Real and nominal long-term interest rates should also continue to be stable, with real 30-year yields varying around 3.5 or 4.0 per cent, and nominal yields varying around 5.5 or 6.0 per cent.

Warding Off Financial Market Failure: How to Avoid Squeezed Margins and Bad Haircuts

Regulators aiming to ward off the next financial market failure need to implement rules to smooth the boom-bust cycle in margin requirements and haircuts used in securities financing and derivative transactions, which seriously exacerbated the last financial crisis. In this study, the author argues that key elements in a system-wide regulatory framework should include rules to mitigate swings between loose terms for margins and haircuts in boom times, and tightened terms during busts. Longworth emphasizes “through-the-cycle” haircuts and initial margins, the potential use of add-ons to haircuts and margins by macroprudential authorities, and market practices that are less procyclical than they were before and during the crisis.Financial Services, global financial crisis, regulatory framework, capital and leverage requirements, liquidity requirements, rules on margins and haircuts, financial insturments, collateral, loan-to-value ratios

Some Aspects of the Canadian Experience with Flexible Exchange Rates in the 1970s

In this study, the authors examine three aspects of the Canadian experience with flexible exchange rates in the 1970s: the movements in the Canadian dollar-U.S. dollar exchange rate, the sharp growth of external borrowings by Canadians in the 1974-76 period, and the real effects of relative price movements. Several theoretical and empirical exchange rate models are found to have done poorly in explaining the movements of the value of the Canadian dollar over the decade. In the examination of external borrowings in the mid-1970s, it is concluded that there was some response in borrower and lender behaviour to movements in nominal long-term interest rate differentials. Four sources of explanation for such behaviour are examined. A three-sector model comprising non-tradable goods, resource-based tradable goods and non resource-based tradable goods, is used to study the effects of changes in raw material prices, domestic unit labour costs, and the exchange rate on various real variables in the Canadian economy.

The Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism and Policy Rules in Canada

The inflation-targeting regime in place in Canada requires a clear understanding of the monetary policy transmission mechanism and a way to exploit knowledge of that mechanism in taking policy decisions. This paper discusses the Bank of Canada’s current view of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Canada and the internal research on which it is based, as well as some of the Bank’s research on policy rules. The main objectives in the research on various elements of the monetary policy framework at the Bank of Canada is to find practical ways of addressing the major types of uncertainty in formulating monetary policy. Uncertainty has become particularly important as a research and practical issue in recent years with the shift in focus to how to conduct monetary policy in a low and stable inflation environment. The concluding section outlines three steps that experience and research has led staff at the Bank of Canada to identify as helpful to policy makers in dealing with uncertainty and providing a sharper focus to discussions at key meetings on monetary policy.

Monetary Policy and Uncertainty

Central banks must cope with considerable uncertainty about what will happen in the economy when formulating monetary policy. This article describes the different types of uncertainty that arise and looks at examples of uncertainty that the Bank has recently encountered. It then reviews the strategies employed by the Bank to deal with this problem. The other articles in this special issue focus on three of these major strategies.