THE IMPACT OF OIL PRICES ON INVESTMENT IN CROATIA

If we look at economic growth as a function of labour and capital then, aside from the labour force, investment is a key determinant of capital accumulation and, accordingly, a prerequisite for economic growth and prosperity. During the analysed period (1996:Q1-2015:Q4) investment in Croatia demonstrated pro-cyclically behaviour but showed a higher level of fluctuation then personal consumption or GDP. The aim of the paper is to examine the influence of oil prices on investment during the analysed period using Vector Autoregression (VAR) analysis and to determine the nature of their relationship by permuting four different oil price indicators. The results indicate that investment initially react positively to the growth of oil prices after which their reaction to oil price growth becomes negative (and more pronounced than the initial positive reaction). Contribution of oil price changes to investment fluctuations were also found

Analiza elastičnosti potražnje za kruhom

Measures of demand elasticity indicate the direction and intensity of the reaction of the quantity of demand for a good or service due to a change in the determinants of demand. Among them, the price elasticity of demand stands out because it measures the reaction of customers to price changes. Price elasticity is therefore important for management in making pricing decisions because it answers the question of how raising or lowering prices will affect sales revenue and, consequently, the company\u27s financial results. In this paper, the elasticity of demand for selected types of bread from the company Bobis d.o.o. was empirically tested. The listed company is the leader in the production of bread, fresh pastries, confectionery products, and cakes (NKD 2007 10.71) in County of Split-Dalmatia, and, at the same time, one of the top ten entrepreneurs in the same industry at the national level. For the analysis, data on sales volumes and associated prices of bread in forty-four branches within County of Split-Dalmatia in 2022 were used. In the empirical part of the paper, the coefficients of price and income elasticity of demand for selected types of bread were estimated. By comparing the calculated coefficients of price elasticity of demand for selected types of bread before and after the introduction of the pricing campaign, the results point to the conclusion that the demand for bread is price elastic. The range of the calculated coefficients of price elasticity of demand is significantly higher when the campaign is introduced, in other words, the introduction of the pricing campaign reduced the sensitivity of customers to price changes in the short term, i.e. after the end of the pricing campaign sales increase despite the return of prices to the levels that preceded the campaign. Finally, the calculation of the coefficients of income elasticity of demand implies that, for all selected types, bread is considered to be a normal good.Mjere elastičnosti potražnje ukazuju na smjer i intenzitet reakcije količine potražnje za nekim dobrom ili uslugom uslijed promjene determinanti potražnje. Među istima, posebno se ističe cjenovna elastičnost potražnje jer mjeri reakciju kupaca na promjene cijena. Cjenovna je elastičnost stoga menadžmentu važna za donošenje odluka o cijenama jer odgovara na pitanje kako će podizanje ili snižavanje cijena utjecati na prihode od prodaje i, posljedično, na financijski rezultat tvrtke. U ovom je radu empirijski testirana elastičnost potražnje za odabranim vrstama kruha tvrtke Bobis d.o.o. Navedena je tvrtka vodeća u djelatnosti proizvodnje kruha, svježih peciva, slastičarskih proizvoda i kolača (NKD 2007 10.71) u Splitsko-dalmatinskoj županiji, a ujedno i jedan od top deset poduzetnika u istoimenoj djelatnosti na nacionalnoj razini. Za potrebe analize korišteni su podatci o količinama prodaje i pripadajućim cijenama kruha u četrdeset četiri poslovnice unutar Splitsko-dalmatinske županije u 2022. godini. U empirijskom dijelu rada izvršene su procjene koeficijenata cjenovne i dohodovne elastičnosti potražnje za odabranim vrstama kruha. Usporedbom izračunatih koeficijenata cjenovne elastičnosti potražnje za odabranim vrstama kruha prije i nakon akcije, rezultati upućuju na zaključak da je potražnja za kruhom cjenovno elastična. Raspon kretanja izračunatih koeficijenata cjenovne elastičnosti potražnje znatno je veći prilikom uvođenja akcije, drugim riječima, uvođenjem akcije kratkoročno je smanjena osjetljivost kupaca na promjene cijena, odnosno prihodi od prodaje nakon prestanka akcijske prodaje rastu unatoč vraćanju cijena na razine koje su prethodile akciji. Konačno, izračun koeficijenata dohodovne elastičnosti potražnje implicira da se, kod svih odabranih vrsta, kruh ponaša kao normalno dobro

Competitiveness, consumer confidence and election outcomes

The literature on the political business cycle (PBC) suggests that politicians systematically manipulate economic conditions in order to increase their chances of re-election. The list of variables that have been found to have a significant effect on the probability of re-election includes macroeconomic (inflation rate, unemployment rate, output growth rate) and fiscal (budget balance, level of expenditures and tax revenues) outcomes. This paper focuses on the question whether price and non-price competitiveness indicators together with consumer confidence index have a statistically significant effect. Thus, this paper addresses two empirical questions. First, in light of the globalisation process and on-going comparisons among national economies, could price and non-price indicators serve as a proxy for voters when deciding on whether to penalise or reward the incumbent? And second, based on the economic theory of voting, is consumer confidence index a better indicator of re-election probability compared to unemployment and output growth rates? Using a dataset of EU member states over the 2000-2015 period and by applying probit/logit analysis we test both questions

Economic policy uncertainty index and economic activity: what causes what?

This paper is a follow-up on the Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index, developed in 2011 by Baker, Bloom, and Davis. The principal idea of the EPU index is to quantify the level of uncertainty in an economic system, based on three separate pillars: news media, number of federal tax code provisions expiring in the following years, and disagreement amongst professional forecasters on future tendencies of relevant macroeconomic variables. Although the original EPU index was designed and published for the US economy, it had instantly caught the attention of numerous academics and was rapidly introduced in 15 countries worldwide. Extensive academic debate has been triggered on the importance of economic uncertainty relating to the intensity and persistence of the recent crisis. Despite the intensive (mostly politically-motivated) debate, formal scientific confirmation of causality running from the EPU index to economic activity has not followed. Moreover, empirical literature has completely failed to conduct formal econometric testing of the Granger causality between the two mentioned phenomena. This paper provides an estimation of the Toda-Yamamoto causality test between the EPU index and economic activity in the USA and several European countries. The results do not provide a general conclusion: causality seems to run in both directions only for the USA, while only in one direction for France and Germany. Having taken into account the Great Recession of 2008, the main result does not change, therefore casting doubt on the index methodology and overall media bias

European economic sentiment indicator: An empirical reappraisal

In the last five decades the European Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) has positioned itself as a high-quality leading indicator of overall economic activity. Relying on data from five distinct business and consumer survey sectors (industry, retail trade, services, construction and the consumer sector), ESI is conceptualized as a weighted average of the chosen 15 response balances. However, the official methodology of calculating ESI is quite flawed because of the arbitrarily chosen balance response weights. This paper proposes two alternative methods for obtaining novel weights aimed at enhancing ESI\u27s forecasting power. Specifically, the weights are determined by minimizing the root mean square error in simple GDP forecasting regression equations; and by maximizing the correlation coefficient between ESI and GDP growth for various lead lengths (up to 12 months). Both employed methods seem to considerably increase ESI\u27s forecasting accuracy in 26 individual European Union countries. The obtained results are quite robust across specifications

Branislav Petronijević i Ksenija Atanasijević – dva shvatanja filozofije i filozofa u savremenom filozofskom diskursu

Branislav Petronijević je odigrao izuzetno višestruko važnu ulogu u razvoju akademske filozofije u našoj sredini. Posle odbrane doktorske teze iz filozofije u Lajpcigu (1898), on je ubrzo postao profesor na Velikoj školi (1898) i potonjem Univerzitetu (1905) u Beogradu, gde je uveo niz novih filozofskih disciplina i sistematskim akademskim radom značajno unapredio nastavu filozofije u našoj sredini. U srpskoj filozofiji prve polovine dvadesetog veka, ime ovog filozofa bilo je sinonim za pojam filozofije i filozofa. Pored međunarodnog filozofskog ugleda Petronijević je stekao značajnu popularnost i u jednom krugu naših akademskih filozofa koji su u svojim shvatanjima filozofije i filozofa sledili najvećeg srpskog metafizičara. U tom krugu Petronijevićevih učenika posebno mesto pripadalo je talentovanoj Kseniji Atanasijević, prvoj ženi, koja je stekla doktorat iz filozofije na beogradskom Univerzitetu, prvoj ženi, koja je postala docent na Filozofskom fakultetu Univerziteta u Beogradu. Velike zasluge autoritativnog Branislava Petronijevića za dolazak Ksenije Atanasijević na Univerzitet i njen ulazak u srpsku akademsku filozofsku elitu, oblast kulture u kojoj su tradicionalno dominirali muškarci, nisu ništa manje od njegove, nikad sasvim razjašnjene, uloge u njenom kasnijem uklanjanju sa Filozofskog fakulteta. Filozofski aspekti ovog događaja imaju izuzetan značaj, ne samo za razumevanje razvoja naše filozofske misli, već i za celokupnu srpsku modernu građansku kulturu i ulogu u javnom životu naše intelektualne elite u prvoj polovini XX veka. U ovom radu autor nastoji da osvetli nedovoljno vidljive filozofske aspekte tog događaja i da ukaže na mene u shvatanju pojma filozofije i filozofa u radovima Ksenije Atanasijević, kao jedne od ključnih tačaka razdora između nje i njenog mentora Petronijevića, koja još uvek nije dovoljno istražena, i koja i danas, kada filozofsko polje nema više restriktivan stav prema onom ženskom (rodu) u filozofiji, može biti zanimljiva za istraživanje i razumevanje rekonceptualizacije temeljnih pojmova savremenog srpskog filozofskog diskursa

On the behavioral antecedents of business cycle coherence in the euro area

Departing from the mainstream literature on European monetary integration, we acknowledge the interdependence of economic sentiment synchronization and business cycle co-movements for 17 individual European countries and the euro area (EA). Building upon both hard and soft data, we find that sentiment cycles are in fact the driving force behind general economic cycle synchronization. This finding is robust with respect to different synchronization indicators, different Granger causality test specifications, data frequencies (monthly vs. quarterly), and the targeted EA composition (EA11 vs. EA19). The latter is of particular importance, implying that recent EA enlargements have not decreased its homogeneity in this regard. Our results exhibit a certain degree of dependence upon the business cycle phase. The synchronization of 17 examined countries vis-a-vis the EA seems to be even more intensive in recessions than in expansions. In other words, common monetary policy of the ECB should be able to effectively act as a countercyclical tool when an individual national economy is facing a recession

Razmatranje odnosa vladar-filozofija u polemičkom diskursu Ljubomira Tadića i Milana Kangrge

U članku se analiziraju filozofski dometi kritičkog i polemičkog diskursa praxis-filozofije, Ljubomira Tadića i Milana Kangrge, kako u njihovim ranim filozofskim radovima, koji se bave problemima savremene političke filozofije, pre svega kritikom autoritarnih oblika vlasti i nacionalizma u epohi komunizma, tako i u postkomunističkom razdoblju, u vreme tranzicije. Autor nastoji da pokaže teorijsku relevantnost i ograničenja praxis-filozofije u njenoj dijagnostici i kritici autoritarnih i totalitarnih oblika političke vlasti, kao i pogubno marginalizovanje praxis-diskursa i razaranja filozofske kritičke kulture koje se odvija sa nastupanjem različitih oblika neoliberalne ideologije i nacionalizma na prostoru bivše Jugoslavije

European economic sentiment indicator: An empirical reappraisal

In the last five decades the European Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) has positioned itself as a high-quality leading indicator of overall economic activity. Relying on data from five distinct business and consumer survey sectors (industry, retail trade, services, construction and the consumer sector), ESI is conceptualized as a weighted average of the chosen 15 response balances. However, the official methodology of calculating ESI is quite flawed because of the arbitrarily chosen balance response weights. This paper proposes two alternative methods for obtaining novel weights aimed at enhancing ESI\u27s forecasting power. Specifically, the weights are determined by minimizing the root mean square error in simple GDP forecasting regression equations; and by maximizing the correlation coefficient between ESI and GDP growth for various lead lengths (up to 12 months). Both employed methods seem to considerably increase ESI\u27s forecasting accuracy in 26 individual European Union countries. The obtained results are quite robust across specifications

The interrelationship between media reports and the recession in Croatia

This paper builds upon the Economist’s R-word (recession) index by forming a Croatian version of a media news-based economic uncertainty measure. Using the web archives of the four major Croatian news portals (Index.hr, Jutarnji list, Večernji list and 24 sata), an extensive database of as much as 531107 news articles is formed. The R-word index is obtained by calculating the monthly share of recession-related articles. This way Croatia is placed among the few rare world countries which have their own version of this index. It is found that the index is a leading indicator of economic activity in Croatia, preceding GDP growth rates by two months. Using rolling window correlations, the authors also prove that economic agents react to uncertainty shocks in the most intensive manner precisely at the onset of an economic crisis, while the correlation decreases in periods of more stable economic growth rates