Pathways to Defense Budget Reform

Symposium PresentationApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Pathways to Defense Budget Reform

Excerpt from the Proceedings of the Nineteenth Annual Acquisition Research SymposiumThe Planning-Programming-Budgeting-Execution (PPBE) process is the most powerful system of incentives affecting acquisition management in the Department of Defense. It is the conduit to money. A key feature of PPBE is the program of record concept that relies on a multi-year planning process. Not only does the program of record hamper technology adoption through adherence to baselines, it creates barriers to interoperability by stovepiping program decisions. Many researchers have detailed the inadequacies of PPBE and the need for embracing a portfolio management approach that aligns with best practices found in commercial and international organizations. This paper dives deeper into the history of how the legislative and executive branches managed defense budget portfolios in the 1960s and before, as well as how PPBE upended those traditional processes. First, it traces the reduction in execution flexibility over time by documenting the budget structure and thresholds for reprogramming. Second, it examines criteria for effective oversight in the PPBE and portfolio settings. The paper concludes that execution flexibility in the form of portfolio budgeting is not only consistent with economic efficiency, it is consistent with United States traditions of congressional control.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Validity Evidence of a Multiple-Choice Test and a Performance Test in an Employment Setting

A selection procedure consisting of both multiple-choice (MC) paper-and pencil and hands on performance assessment (PA) elements was developed for a large consumer products manufacturing company in the southeastern United States for the purpose of ensuring that workers possessed the necessary knowledge, skills, and abilities required for work at a new facility. Two 125-item alternate tests using an MC format and 7 PA exercises were initially developed for the job referred to in the present study as L2/L3 Production Technician. The purpose of this study was to examine the validity evidence for the two alternate multiple-choice (MC) job knowledge tests and seven performance assessment (PA) exercises that were developed for employment selection purposes. The study sample included 432 Form A and 324 Form B examinees who took both the MC test and the PA exercises. Factor analysis results revealed that the same construct, labeled as applied mechanical knowledge, was measured by both the MC tests and the PA exercises. Item and test analysis results supported the use of Form A and Form B as alternate test forms. The decision consistency between the MC tests and the PA exercises did not appear to be sufficient to recommend that either form of the MC test alone could be used to select qualified L2/L3 Production Technicians. The correlations between MC score and PA total score were .627 for Form A and .612 for Form B. As part of a content analysis, subject-matter experts rated a large number of MC items as either having "no relationship" or "small relationship" to the PA exercises. However, subject-matter experts did rate the PA exercises as having a great importance to the job of L2/L3 Production Technician

Visualizing Results From Infection Transmission Models: A Case Against “Confidence Intervals”

Stochastic transmission models are highly important in infectious disease epidemiology. The quantity of data produced by these models is challenging to display and communicate. A common approach is to display the model results in the familiar form of a mean or median and 95% interval, plotted over time. This approach has drawbacks, however, including the potential for ambiguity and misinterpretation of model results. Instead, we propose two alternative approaches for visualizing results from stochastic models. These proposed approaches convey the information provided by the median and 95% interval, as well as information about unexpected outcomes that may be of particular interest for stochastic epidemic models

Mathematical modeling of clostridium difficile transmission in healthcare settings

Clostridium difficile is a frequent source of healthcare-associated infection, especially among patients on antibiotics or proton pump inhibitors (PPIs). The rate of C. difficile infection (CDI) has been steadily rising since 2000 and now represents a major burden on the healthcare system in terms of both morbidity and mortality. However, despite its public health importance, there are few mathematical models of C. difficile which might be used to evaluate our current evidence base or new control measures. Three different data sources were analyzed to provide parameters for a mathematical model: a cohort of incident CDI cases in the Duke Infection Control Outreach Network (DICON), a hospital-level surveillance time series, also from DICON, and inpatient records from UNC Healthcare, all from 7/1/2009 to 12/31/2010. Using estimates from these data, as well as from the literature, a pair of compartmental transmission models, one deterministic and the other stochastic, were created to evaluate the potential effect of the use of fecal transplantation as a treatment to prevent CDI. The analysis of the cohort of incident cases suggested that ICU patients experience a greater burden of mortality while infected with C. difficile and have longer lengths of stay and times until death, suggesting this population as one of special interest. Two interventions were simulated using the stochastic model: the use of fecal transplantation to treat CDI and prevent recurrent cases and the use of fecal transplantation after treatment with antibiotics or PPIs to prevent the development of CDI. Simulation results showed that treating patients with CDI was effective in preventing recurrence but not in reducing the overall number of incident cases of CDI. Transplantation after treatment with antibiotics or PPIs had no effect on preventing recurrence and a statistically significant reduction in incident cases that did not reach clinical significance. These results suggest that routine fecal transplantation for patients with CDI may be an effective treatment to prevent recurrence. Mathematical models such as the one described in this dissertation are powerful tools to evaluate potential interventions, suggest new directions for study, and understand the dynamics of infection on a population level.Doctor of Philosoph

PastoralScape : an environment-driven model of vaccination decision making within pastoralist groups in East Africa

Economic and cultural resilience among pastoralists in East Africa is threatened by the interconnected forces of climate change and contagious diseases spread. A key factor in the resilience of livestock dependent communities is human decision making regarding vaccination against preventable diseases such as Rift Valley fever and Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia. The relationship between healthy and productive livestock and economic development of poor households and communities is mediated by human decision making. This paper describes a coupled human and natural systems agent-based model that focuses on One Health. Disease propagation and animal nutritional health are driven by historical GIS data that captures changes in foraging condition. The results of a series of experiments are presented that demonstrate the sensitivity of a transformed Random Field Ising Model of human decision making to changes in human memory and rationality parameters. Results presented communicate that convergence in the splitting of households between vaccinating or not is achieved for combinations of memory and rationality. The interaction of these cognition parameters with public information and social networks of opinions is detailed. This version of the PastoralScape model is intended to form the basis upon which richer economic and human factor models can be built. © 2021, University of Surrey. All rights reserved