A New Technique for Finding Needles in Haystacks: A Geometric Approach to Distinguishing Between a New Source and Random Fluctuations

We propose a new test statistic based on a score process for determining the statistical significance of a putative signal that may be a small perturbation to a noisy experimental background. We derive the reference distribution for this score test statistic; it has an elegant geometrical interpretation as well as broad applicability. We illustrate the technique in the context of a model problem from high-energy particle physics. Monte Carlo experimental results confirm that the score test results in a significantly improved rate of signal detection.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figure

Green consumer markets in the fight against climate change

Climate change has become one of the greatest threats to environmental security, as attested by the growing frequency of severe flooding and storms, extreme temperatures and droughts. Accordingly, the European Union’s (EU) 6th Environment Action Programme (2010) lists tackling climate change as its first priority. A key aim of the EU has been to cut CO2 emissions, a major factor in climate change, by 8% until 2012 and 20% until 2020. The European Commission has proposed the encouragement of private consumer market for green products and services as one of several solutions to this problem. However, existing research suggests that the market share of these products has been only 3%, although 30% of individuals favour environmental and ethical goods. This article uses Public Goods Theory to explain why the contribution of the green consumer market to fighting climate change has been and possibly may remain limited without further public intervention

First karyological analysis of the endemic malagasy phantom gecko matoatoa brevipes (Squamata: Gekkonidae)

The genus Matoatoa includes two Malagasy endemic species, M. brevipes and M. spannringi. Due to their cryptic behaviour, the two species are known only from a handful of specimens and have been included in few molecular studies. Here we carried out a molecular barcoding analysis using a fragment of the mitochondrial NADH dehy-drogenase subunit 2 (ND2) and the first chromosomal analysis of M. brevipes. The molecular analysis confirmed the identity of the studied samples as M. brevipes. However, the level of genetic divergence (4% uncorrected p-distance) between our samples and other sequences of M. brevipes, suggests previously unrecognised diversity within the spe-cies. The karyotype of M. brevipes is composed of 2n = 34 chromosomes: the first pair is metacentric, while all the other pairs are telocentric and gradually decreasing in length (Arm Number, AN = 36). C-banding revealed little evidence of centromeric heterochromatin, while NOR-associated heterochromatin was found on the telomeres of a medi-um sized telocentric pair. No heteromorphic chromosome pairs were found in the karyotype of the species, suggesting that putative sex chromosomes are at an early stage of differentiation. Karyological comparisons with closely related species were performed with Christinus marmoratus, and representatives of the genera Phelsuma, Ebenavia, Paroedura and Uroplatus. Comparisons across genera suggest that chromosome diversification in this group of geckos probably occurred by means of chromosome fusions and inversions, leading to a reduction of the chromosome number and the formation of biarmed elements in different species

Historical Criminology and the Explanatory Power of the Past

To what extent can the past ‘explain’ the present? This deceptively simple question lies at the heart of historical criminology (research which incorporates historical primary sources while addressing present-day debates and practices in the criminal justice field). This article seeks first to categorise the ways in which criminologists have used historical data thus far, arguing that it is most commonly deployed to ‘problematize’ the contemporary rather than to ‘explain’ it. The article then interrogates the reticence of criminologists to attribute explicative power in relation to the present to historical data. Finally, it proposes the adoption of long time-frame historical research methods, outlining three advantages which would accrue from this: the identification and analysis of historical continuities; a more nuanced, shared understanding of micro/macro change over time in relation to criminal justice; and a method for identifying and analysing instances of historical recurrence, particularly in perceptions and discourses around crime and justice

Reexamining evidence-based practice in community corrections: beyond 'a confined view' of what works

This article aims to reexamine the development and scope of evidence-based practice (EBP) in community corrections by exploring three sets of issues. Firstly, we examine the relationships between the contested purposes of community supervision and their relationships to questions of evidence. Secondly, we explore the range of forms of evidence that might inform the pursuit of one purpose of supervision—the rehabilitation of offenders—making the case for a fuller engagement with “desistance” research in supporting this process. Thirdly, we examine who can and should be involved in conversations about EBP, arguing that both ex/offenders’ and practitioners’ voices need to be respected and heard in this debate

Local linear density estimation for filtered survival data, with bias correction

A class of local linear kernel density estimators based on weighted least-squares kernel estimation is considered within the framework of Aalen's multiplicative intensity model. This model includes the filtered data model that, in turn, allows for truncation and/or censoring in addition to accommodating unusual patterns of exposure as well as occurrence. It is shown that the local linear estimators corresponding to all different weightings have the same pointwise asymptotic properties. However, the weighting previously used in the literature in the i.i.d. case is seen to be far from optimal when it comes to exposure robustness, and a simple alternative weighting is to be preferred. Indeed, this weighting has, effectively, to be well chosen in a 'pilot' estimator of the survival function as well as in the main estimator itself. We also investigate multiplicative and additive bias-correction methods within our framework. The multiplicative bias-correction method proves to be the best in a simulation study comparing the performance of the considered estimators. An example concerning old-age mortality demonstrates the importance of the improvements provided

Arctic hydroclimate variability during the last 2000 years : current understanding and research challenges

Reanalysis data show an increasing trend in Arctic precipitation over the 20th century, but changes are not homogenous across seasons or space. The observed hydro-climate changes are expected to continue and possibly accelerate in the coming century, not only affecting pan-Arctic natural ecosystems and human activities, but also lower latitudes through the atmospheric and ocean circulations. However, a lack of spatiotemporal observational data makes reliable quantification of Arctic hydroclimate change difficult, especially in a long-term context. To understand Arctic hydroclimate and its variability prior to the instrumental record, climate proxy records are needed. The purpose of this review is to summarise the current understanding of Arctic hydroclimate during the past 2000 years. First, the paper reviews the main natural archives and proxies used to infer past hydroclimate variations in this remote region and outlines the difficulty of disentangling the moisture from the temperature signal in these records. Second, a comparison of two sets of hydroclimate records covering the Common Era from two data-rich regions, North America and Fennoscandia, reveals inter- and intra-regional differences. Third, building on earlier work, this paper shows the potential for providing a high-resolution hydroclimate reconstruction for the Arctic and a comparison with last-millennium simulations from fully coupled climate models. In general, hydroclimate proxies and simulations indicate that the Medieval Climate Anomaly tends to have been wetter than the Little Ice Age (LIA), but there are large regional differences. However, the regional coverage of the proxy data is inadequate, with distinct data gaps in most of Eurasia and parts of North America, making robust assessments for the whole Arctic impossible at present. To fully assess pan-Arctic hydroclimate variability for the last 2 millennia, additional proxy records are required.Peer reviewe