Impacts du développement des biocarburants sur la production française de grandes cultures

The paper provides an analysis of the impacts of the bio fuel policy on the French arable crop subsector. The model used is a bio fuel supply model composed of an agricultural module and an industrial bio fuel processingule. Our results show that the incorporation target of 7% of bio fuels in transport fuels would lead to a considerable increase in the rapeseed area. In the main producing regions, the rapeseed area would reach approximately a third of the total farmed area. It would not be possible to reach a 10% incorporation target without imports. Furthermore, we analyse the impacts of reaching these production levels on the rapeseed opportunity costs, and show that reaching the incorporation targets will need an increase in rapeseed prices paid to farmers. We calculate the impacts of this opportunity cost increase on the competitiveness of bio fuels with respect to fossil oil, for different levels of oil prices.Agriculture , Bio-fuels , Energy policy , French arable crops

La révision à mi-parcours de la PAC (juin 2003) et les exploitations céréalières des régions intermédiaires

A l'aide d'un modèle régional d'offre optimisant le revenu agricole des exploitations sous un ensemble de contraintes et simulant parallèlement les évolutions des structures agricoles sur la période 2002-2012, les impacts du compromis de Luxembourg sur les revenus et sur les structures agricoles, sur les assolements et sur la déprise (non culture) ont été analysés, dans les régions céréalières intermédiaires. Les simulations montrent un léger risque de déprise, 8% des exploitations, si les prix des céréales diminuent nettement, 81€ à l'horizon 2012. Un recouplage de 25% des aides fait disparaître la déprise dans ce scénario de prix qui suppose une baisse du prix d'intervention. Suite au compromis de Luxembourg, le maintien du prix d'intervention devrait normalement empêcher une baisse aussi importante des prix et freiner donc naturellement la déprise. Alors que les ultimes propositions "Fischler" (scénario 1) auraient entraîné des baisses importantes de revenu agricole par hectare et par exploitation, le compromis de Luxembourg (scénario 2) devrait permettre un maintien du revenu par exploitation en euros constants (taux d'inflation 1,4%), sachant que 12% des exploitations disparaissent à l'horizon 2012, selon le modèle. Le découplage fait peu évoluer l'équilibre entre les céréales et les oléagineux, ce qui n'est pas surprenant puisque les aides couplées par culture sont identiques depuis l'application de l'Agenda 2000.

Les enjeux du développement des biocarburants dans l’Union européenne

En mars 2007, le Conseil européen a annoncé qu’à l’horizon 2020, une proportion minimale de 10 % de biocarburants devrait être incorporée dans les carburants utilisés pour le transport routier. Les pouvoirs publics communautaires mettent en avant trois facteurs principaux pour justifier une telle ambition : la réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre (GES), la diversification des approvisionnements énergétiques et le soutien des revenus agricoles. Alors qu’on s’interroge sur les conditions dans lesquelles les 5,75 % d’incorporation fixés par le cadre législatif actuel pourraient être atteints en 2010, ce nouvel élan donné à la politique communautaire des biocarburants suscite plusieurs interrogations.

The future of global sugar markets: Policies, reforms, and impact

"Sugar is one of the most highly protected agricultural commodities worldwide. This protection depresses trade opportunities and the prices received by exporters without preferential market access. For this reason, dialogues about sugar policy are often polarized and short sound bites caustic. Yet today's sugar markets are being driven by a complex array of dynamic and emerging supply, demand, and policy forces that need to be understood. A number of these forces have the potential to reshape the global market scene. Recent sugar policy reforms in the European Union (EU) have received little attention in North America but may turn the EU into a net importer, with substantial compensation paid to its farmers and displaced processing facilities. High oil prices and the related ethanol boom place Brazil at the fulcrum of new market developments. In the United States, corn sweetener and sugar markets are being integrated with Mexican markets under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), raising the question of whether the EU reforms provide a template for new policies. And among developing countries in Africa and elsewhere there are low-cost producers that would benefit from more open trade but others who would be disadvantaged by the loss of preferential markets. This discussion paper presents the proceedings of a one-day conference that served as a forum for the discussion of these and other critical issues affecting global sugar markets, policies, and reform options. The conference was attended by 60 representatives of governments, research institutions, producers and processors from the sugar sector, and other groups interested in sugar markets and policies. The four papers were presented by internationally recognized experts from the EU, Brazil, the United States, and South Africa. Discussion openers and general discussion at the conference added further policy insights, and the papers were edited and revised after the conference to reflect the dialogue that had occurred." from authors' abstractsugar, Ethanol, NAFTA, WTO, Trade policy,

The mid-term CAP reform (June 2003) and French cereal farms in the intermediate regions

Using a regional model optimizing farmers’ agricultural income subject to a set of constraints, while also simulating the evolution of farming structures in the period 2002-2012, the impacts of the Luxembourg compromise on farm incomes and agricultural structures, the cropping pattern and agricultural decline (idle land) are here analysed with regard to cereal production in intermediate regions. Simulations show little risk of agriculture decline: a loss of 8% farms if cereal prices drop considerably, to 81€ by 2012. A recoupling of 25% of the aids makes this decline disappear in this price scenario, which supposes a drop in the intervention price. Following the Luxembourg compromise, the maintenance of the intervention price should impede such a fall in prices and so naturally slow down the decline. While the final “Fischler” proposals (scenario 1) would have entailed major drops in farm incomes per hectare and farm, the Luxembourg compromise (scenario 2) should allow for the levelling off of farm income (inflation rate of 1.4%), bearing in mind that according to the model 12% of farms closed down by 2012. Decoupling evens up cereals and oleaginous production, which is not surprising since aids coupled by crop have been identical since the Agenda 2000 implementation

L'impact de la réforme à mi-parcours de la PAC sur les exploitations céréalières françaises des régions intermédiaires

International audienceLa réforme de la politique agricole, prévue au plus tôt pour 2005, a été marquée par trois grandes étapes, une première proposition de la commission en juillet 2002, puis une adaptation de cette proposition en janvier 2003 qui en atténuait déjà nettement les impacts économiques, enfin l'accord de Luxembourg entre Etats en juin 2003. Pour fournir des outils de réflexion au ministère de l'Agriculture et à la profession agricole, des simulations ont été réalisées ex ante pour les exploitations céréalières des régions intermédiaires, sensibles aux changements de politique agricole. Elles ont été effectuées avec un modèle régional de programmation linéaire séquentiel, optimisant les revenus des exploitants chaque année sur la période 2000-2012 et intégrant les évolutions des structures. Grâce à l'interrogation de cet instrument, les auteurs ont pu étudier les incidences de la réforme sur les assolements et notamment sur les parts respectives des céréales et des têtes d'assolement, sur les revenus agricoles par hectare et par exploitation, sur les risques de déprise et sur l'évolution du nombre d'exploitations et de leur structure

The CAP Mid-Term Reform Impacts to French Cereal-Oriented Farms

The agricultural policy reform to be implemented by 2005, has been marked by a three-step process, a first proposition of the E.C. in July 2002, then an adaptation of that proposition in January 2003 that clearly alleviated the economic impacts and finally the Luxembourg compromise in June 2003. In order to provide insights for discussion in the French Ministry of Agriculture and the farmers’ professional organisations, cereal-oriented farms in central regions of France, which are particularly sensitive to agricultural policy, have been studied. ‘Ex ante’ simulations have been run using a regional model of sequential linear programming that optimises over the annual farmers’ incomes in the period 2002-2012 integrating as well the evolution of farm structure. Thanks to the interrogation of this tool, the impacts of the reform have been estimated on a) crop mix especially regarding cereal and crop precedent in rotation, b) on agricultural incomes per hectare and farm, c) possibilities of land left idle, and d) evolution of farm structure and number of farms. It can be concluded that the final compromise on the C.A.P. stabilises the farmers’ income in the 2012 horizon due to the size adjustment upwards of cereal farms under the condition that agro-environmental measures do not penalise them and that rapeseed prices keep increasing. Re-coupling to avoid idle land is no more necessary after the Luxembourg compromise whereas farm business disappearance does not seem to accelerate. Enlargement and mechanical equipment economies of scope may be the proper response to new conditions and in any case decoupling is not expected to enhance the extensive use of the land factor, intended by the proponents of the eco-conditionality of subsidies

A novel approach for assessing the contribution of agricultural systems to the sustainable development of regions with multi-scale indicators: Application to Guadeloupe

International audienceThe assessment of agriculture at a regional scale is necessary to better guide regional agricultural planning. To improve the contribution of agriculture to sustainable regional development, assessments must take account of the locations and diversity of cropping systems. We have therefore developed a method based on a set of multi-scale indicators to assess the contribution of agriculture to the sustainable development of regions, and its evolution over time. This method can identify: i) sustainability issues, ii) relevant indicators that will provide information on impacts at the field scale, iii) a method to aggregate indicators, iv) data on cropping systems, and v) a database containing spatial units to analyse the whole region. Application of this method to Guadeloupe (2004-2010) enabled the definition of ten issues and 16 indicators, with three procedures to aggregate information from 36 cropping systems allocated to 11,908 fields between 2004 and 2010. Economic, social and environmental sustainability was poor in 2004, with high dependency on subsidies (47.3 M€.yr-1), low agricultural added value (48.5 M€.yr-1), low employment (only 1799 2 workers), significant risks of crop contamination and pressure on water quality. The total value of subsidies and the risks of river pollution tended to decrease between 2004 and 2010 because of a reduction in intensive banana cropping systems. In parallel, we were able to see that sugar cane, the most widespread crop in Guadeloupe, made only a small contribution to employment and food self-sufficiency during the studied period. The spatial representation revealed that improvements have been seen in southern Guadeloupe due to reductions in banana cultivation. This method was therefore helpful in identifying the most critical agricultural development issues and helping to highlight areas where relevant agricultural land use policies could be formulated

Energy efficiency, environmental benefits and cost competitiveness of EU biofuels

In the EU, the biofuels policy now has a significant impact on some sectors, such as the oilseeds, and future targets are likely to affect also the grains and sugar market. The paper provides a background information regarding the EU policy on biofuels. The purpose is to assess whether this policy may lead to an increase use of European agricultural products for energy, or whether it is more likely that the EU will shift towards imports of biofuels. We first describe the EU policy of support to energy crops, i.e. tax exemption for biofuels and mandatory incorporation targets in some member states, the impact on demand and supply of biofuels. We then focus on the prospects for the production and utilization of biofuels in the EU. We address the three related issues of energy efficiency, environmental benefits and cost competitiveness of EU biofuels and we present simulations regarding the competition between food and non food use of agricultural products and the consequences on the competitiveness of biofuels