144 research outputs found

    Prediction of the 20-year incidence of diabetes in older Chinese: Application of the competing risk method in a longitudinal study

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    The competing risk method has become more acceptable for time-to-event data analysis because of its advantage over the standard Cox model in accounting for competing events in the risk set. This study aimed to construct a prediction model for diabetes using a subdistribution hazards model

    Acute effects of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) on hospital admissions for cardiovascular disease in Beijing, China: A time-series study

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    Background Air pollution and cardiovascular disease are increasing problems in China. However, the short-term association between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) is not well documented. The purpose of this study is to estimate the short-term effects of PM2.5 on CVD admissions in Beijing, China. Methods In total, 460,938 electronic hospitalization summary reports for CVD between 2013 and 2017 were obtained. A generalized additive model using a quasi-Poisson distribution was used to investigate the association between exposure to PM2.5 and hospitalizations for total and cause-specific CVD, including coronary heart disease (CHD), atrial fibrillation (AF), and heart failure (HF) after controlling for the season, the day of the week, public holidays, and weather conditions. A stratified analysis was also conducted for age (18–64 and ≥ 65 years), sex and season. Results For every 10 μg/m3 increase in the PM2.5 concentration from the previous day to the current (lag 0–1) there was a significant increase in total CVD admissions (0.30, 95% CI: 0.20, 0.39%), with a strong association for older adults (aged ≥65 years), CHD (0.34, 95% CI: 0.22 to 0.45%) and AF (0.29, 95% CI, 0.03 to 0.55%). However, the observed increased risk was not statistically significant for HF hospitalizations. The associations in the single-pollutant models were robust to the inclusion of other pollutants in a two-pollutant model. No differences were found after stratification by sex and season. Conclusions Exposure to PM2.5 increased the risk of hospitalizations from CVD, especially for CHD, and appeared to have more influence in the elderly. Precautions and protective measures and efforts to reduce exposure to PM2.5 should be strengthened, especially for the elderly

    Associations between social and intellectual activities with cognitive trajectories in Chinese middle-aged and older adults: A nationally representative cohort study

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    BACKGROUND: Associations between the frequency of social and intellectual activities and cognitive trajectories are understudied in Chinese middle-aged and older adults. We aimed to examine this association in a nationally representative longitudinal study. METHODS: The China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) is a nationally representative sample of Chinese middle-aged and older participants. The frequency of social and intellectual activities was measured at baseline. Interview-based cognitive assessments of orientation and attention, episodic memory, and visuospatial skills and the calculation of combined global scores were assessed every 2 years from 2011 to 2016. Cognitive aging trajectories over time were analyzed using group-based trajectory modeling, and the associations of the trajectory memberships with social and intellectual activities were analyzed using multinomial logistic regression. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were reported. RESULTS: Among 8204 participants aged 50-75 years at baseline, trajectory analysis identified three longitudinal patterns of cognitive function based on the global cognitive scores: persistently low trajectory (n = 1550, 18.9%), persistently moderate trajectory (n = 3194, 38.9%), and persistently high trajectory (n = 3460, 42.2%). After adjustment for sociodemographic variables, lifestyles, geriatric symptoms, and health conditions, more frequent intellectual activities (OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.38-0.77) and social activities (OR 0.79, 95% CI 0.65-0.95) were both associated with a lower likelihood of being in the persistently low trajectory for global cognitive function. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggested that more frequent social and intellectual activities were associated with more favorable cognitive aging trajectories

    A competing-risk-based score for predicting twenty-year risk of incident diabetes: the Beijing Longitudinal Study of Ageing study

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    Few risk tools have been proposed to quantify the long-term risk of diabetes among middle-aged and elderly individuals in China. The present study aimed to develop a risk tool to estimate the 20-year risk of developing diabetes while incorporating competing risks. A three-stage stratification random-clustering sampling procedure was conducted to ensure the representativeness of the Beijing elderly. We prospectively followed 1857 community residents aged 55 years and above who were free of diabetes at baseline examination. Sub-distribution hazards models were used to adjust for the competing risks of non-diabetes death. The cumulative incidence function of twenty-year diabetes event rates was 11.60% after adjusting for the competing risks of non-diabetes death. Age, body mass index, fasting plasma glucose, health status, and physical activity were selected to form the score. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.76 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.72–0.80), and the optimism-corrected AUC was 0.78 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.69–0.87) after internal validation by bootstrapping. The calibration plot showed that the actual diabetes risk was similar to the predicted risk. The cut-off value of the risk score was 19 points, marking mark the difference between low-risk and high-risk patients, which exhibited a sensitivity of 0.74 and specificity of 0.65

    Association between telomere length in peripheral blood leukocytes and risk of ischemic stroke in a Han Chinese population: A linear and non‑linear Mendelian randomization analysis

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    Background: Many contradictory conclusions pertaining to the telomere length in peripheral leukocyte chromosomes as a potential biomarker for ischemic stroke (IS) risk have been reported by the various observational studies in previous years. This study aims to investigate whether the leukocyte telomere length is associated with an increased IS risk or not, based on the Mendelian randomization (MR) approach. Methods: Based on the NHGRI-EBI GWAS Catalog database, the Chinese online genetic database as well as the previous published studies, twelve single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with minor allele frequency ≥ 0.05 were selected and the leukocyte telomere length was measured in 431 first-ever IS patients and 304 healthy controls (quantitative polymerase chain reaction). To explore linear and non-linear effect of telomere length on the IS risk, we preformed the linear MR analysis (the inverse-variance weighted method, the maximum likelihood method, and the mode-based estimation method), and the non-linear MR analysis (semiparametric method with three tests for non-linearity, including the quadratic test, Cochran’s Q test, and the fractional polynomial test). Results: Two verified SNPs (rs11125529 and rs412658) were chosen as instrumental variables. In linear MR analysis, the adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals of IS for genetically predicted telomere lengths, based on the two SNPs, were 1.312 (0.979 to 1.759), 1.326 (0.932 to 1.888) and 1.226 (0.844 to 1.781) for the inverse-variance weighted method, the maximum likelihood method, and the mode-based estimation method, respectively. Three tests for nonlinearity failed to reject the null exactly, indicating that the relationship between telomere length and IS risk is unlikely to be non-linear. Conclusion: This MR study based on individual data does not provide strong evidence for a positive linear or non-linear effect of telomere length on the IS risk

    Cognitive impairment and risk of all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality over 20-year follow-up: Results from the BLSA

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    Background-Cognitive impairment may increase the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. This study examined the association between cognitive function and risk of all-cause and CVD mortality among the elderly in Beijing, China. Methods and Results-A total of 1996 participants aged ≥55 years at baseline were enrolled from the BLSA (Beijing Longitudinal Study of Aging). Cognitive function was assessed using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), and participants were categorized as

    Changes in Proteinuria on the Risk of All-Cause Mortality in People with Diabetes or Prediabetes: A Prospective Cohort Study

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    Background. Proteinuria has been related to all-cause mortality, showing regression or progression. However, few studies have focused on the relationship between proteinuria changes and all-cause mortality. The main purpose of this paper is to examine the associations between proteinuria changes and all-cause mortality in people with diabetes or prediabetes. Methods. Dipstick proteinuria at baseline and a 2-year follow-up were determined in the participants attending the Kailuan prospective cohort study. Participants were then divided into three categories: elevated proteinuria, stable proteinuria, and reduced proteinuria. Four Cox proportional hazard models were built to access the relations of proteinuria changes to all-cause mortality, adjusting for other confounding covariates. Results. A total of 17,878 participants were finally included in this study. There were 1193 deaths after a median follow-up of 6.69 years. After adjusting for major covariates and proteinuria at baseline, mortality risk was significantly associated with elevated proteinuria (hazard ratio (HR): 1.54, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.33–1.79) and reduced proteinuria (HR: 0.70, 95% CI: 0.55–0.89), compared to those with stable proteinuria. Conclusion. Proteinuria changes were independently associated with mortality risk in either diabetic or prediabetic population
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