Machine dependence and reproducibility for coupled climate simulations: the HadGEM3-GC3.1 CMIP Preindustrial simulation

When the same weather or climate simulation is run on different high-performance computing (HPC) platforms, model outputs may not be identical for a given initial condition. While the role of HPC platforms in delivering better climate projections is to some extent discussed in the literature, attention is mainly focused on scalability and performance rather than on the impact of machine-dependent processes on the numerical solution. Here we investigate the behaviour of the Preindustrial (PI) simulation prepared by the UK Met Office for the forthcoming CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) under different computing environments. Discrepancies between the means of key climate variables were analysed at different timescales, from decadal to centennial. We found that for the two simulations to be statistically indistinguishable, a 200-year averaging period must be used for the analysis of the results. Thus, constant-forcing climate simulations using the HadGEM3-GC3.1 model are reproducible on different HPC platforms provided that a sufficiently long duration of simulation is used. In regions where El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection patterns were detected, we found large sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration differences on centennial timescales. This indicates that a 100-year constant-forcing climate simulation may not be long enough to adequately capture the internal variability of the HadGEM3-GC3.1 model, despite this being the minimum simulation length recommended by CMIP6 protocols for many MIP (Model Intercomparison Project) experiments. On the basis of our findings, we recommend a minimum simulation length of 200 years whenever possible

The effects of explicit versus parameterized convection on the MJO in a large-domain high-resolution tropical case study. Part II: Processes leading to differences in MJO development

High-resolution simulations over a large tropical domain (∼20◦S–20◦N and 42◦E–180◦E) using both explicit and parameterized convection are analyzed and compared during a 10-day case study of an active Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) event. In Part II, the moisture budgets and moist entropy budgets are analyzed. Vertical subgrid diabatic heating profiles and vertical velocity profiles are also compared; these are related to the horizontal and vertical advective components of the moist entropy budget which contribute to gross moist stability, GMS, and normalized GMS (NGMS). The 4-km model with explicit convection and good MJO performance has a vertical heating structure that increases with height in the lower troposphere in regions of strong convection (like observations), whereas the 12-km model with parameterized convection and a poor MJO does not show this relationship. The 4-km explicit convection model also has a more top-heavy heating profile for the troposphere as a whole near and to the west of the active MJO-related convection, unlike the 12-km parameterized convection model. The dependence of entropy advection components on moisture convergence is fairly weak in all models, and differences between models are not always related to MJO performance, making comparisons to previous work somewhat inconclusive. However, models with relatively good MJO strength and propagation have a slightly larger increase of the vertical advective component with increasing moisture convergence, and their NGMS vertical terms have more variability in time and longitude, with total NGMS that is comparatively larger to the west and smaller to the east

UniFHy v0.1.1: a community modelling framework for the terrestrial water cycle in Python

The land surface, hydrological, and groundwater modelling communities all have expertise in simulating the hydrological processes at play in the terrestrial component of the Earth system. However, these communities, and the wider Earth system modelling community, have largely remained distinct with limited collaboration between disciplines, hindering progress in the representation of hydrological processes in the land component of Earth system models (ESMs). In order to address key societal questions regarding the future availability of water resources and the intensity of extreme events such as floods and droughts in a changing climate, these communities must come together and build on the strengths of one another to produce next-generation land system models that are able to adequately simulate the terrestrial water cycle under change. The development of a common modelling infrastructure can contribute to stimulating cross-fertilisation by structuring and standardising the interactions. This paper presents such an infrastructure, a land system framework, which targets an intermediate level of complexity and constrains interfaces between components (and communities) and, in doing so, aims to facilitate an easier pipeline between the development of (sub-)community models and their integration, both for standalone use and for use in ESMs. This paper first outlines the conceptual design and technical capabilities of the framework; thereafter, its usage and useful characteristics are demonstrated through case studies. The main innovations presented here are (1) the interfacing constraints themselves; (2) the implementation in Python (the Unified Framework for Hydrology, unifhy); and (3) the demonstration of standalone use cases using the framework. The existing framework does not yet meet all our goals, in particular, of directly supporting integration into larger ESMs, so we conclude with the remaining limitations of the current framework and necessary future developments.</p

The effects of explicit versus parameterized convection on the MJO in a large-domain high-resolution tropical case study. Part I: Characterization of large-scale organization and propagation

High-resolution simulations over a large tropical domain (∼20◦S–20◦N and 42◦E–180◦E) using both explicit and parameterized convection are analyzed and compared to observations during a 10-day case study of an active Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) event. The parameterized convection model simulations at both 40 km and 12 km grid spacing have a very weak MJO signal and little eastward propagation. A 4 km explicit convection simulation using Smagorinsky subgrid mixing in the vertical and horizontal dimensions exhibits the best MJO strength and propagation speed. 12 km explicit convection simulations also perform much better than the 12 km parameterized convection run, suggesting that the convection scheme, rather than horizontal resolution, is key for these MJO simulations. Interestingly, a 4 km explicit convection simulation using the conventional boundary layer scheme for vertical subgrid mixing (but still using Smagorinsky horizontal mixing) completely loses the large-scale MJO organization, showing that relatively high resolution with explicit convection does not guarantee a good MJO simulation. Models with a good MJO representation have a more realistic relationship between lower-free-tropospheric moisture and precipitation, supporting the idea that moisture-convection feedback is a key process for MJO propagation. There is also increased generation of available potential energy and conversion of that energy into kinetic energy in models with a more realistic MJO, which is related to larger zonal variance in convective heating and vertical velocity, larger zonal temperature variance around 200 hPa, and larger correlations between temperature and ascent (and between temperature and diabatic heating) between 500–400 hPa

The importance of the representation of deep convection for modeled dust‐generating winds over West Africa during summer

West Africa is the world's largest source of airborne mineral dust, which affects weather, climate, and biogeochemical processes. We use continental-scale ten-day simulations from the UK Met Office Unified Model to study the effects of the representation of deep convection on modeled dust-generating winds in summertime West Africa. To isolate the role of meteorology from the land surface we use a new diagnostic parameter "uplift potential", which represents the dependency of dust uplift on wind-speed for an idealized land surface. Runs permitting explicit convection suggest that cold pool outflows from moist convection (so called "haboob" dust storms) potentially generate on the order of half the dust uplift. Simulations with parameterized convection show substantially less haboob uplift, but compensating increased uplift from low-level jets associated with a stronger Saharan heat low (SHL). This leads to reduced dust emission on convectively active days, in the afternoon and evening hours, and in the Sahel. The common practice of tuning coarse-resolution dust models cannot resolve these problems. A realistic representation of the dust cycle, as well as of the SHL, requires targeted efforts to develop computationally inexpensive ways to incorporate the effects of cold-pool outflows from deep convection

The role of moist convection in the West African monsoon system - insights from continental-scale convection-permitting simulations

Predicting the West African monsoon (WAM) remains a major challenge for weather and climate models. We compare multiday continental-scale simulations of the WAM that explicitly resolve moist convection with simulations which parameterize convection. Simulations with the same grid spacing but differing representations of convection isolate the impact of the representation of convection. The more realistic explicit convection gives greater latent and radiative heating farther north, with latent heating later in the day. This weakens the Sahel-Sahara pressure gradient and the monsoon flow, delaying its diurnal cycle and changing interactions between the monsoon and boundary layer convection. In explicit runs, cold storm outflows provide a significant component of the monsoon flux. In an operational global model, biases resemble those in our parameterized case. Improved parameterizations of convection that better capture storm structures, their diurnal cycle, and rainfall intensities will therefore substantially improve predictions of the WAM and coupled aspects of the Earth system