Toward a Country-Based Prediction Model of COVID-19 Infections and Deaths Between Disease Apex and End: Evidence From Countries With Contained Numbers of COVID-19

The complexity of COVID-19 and variations in control measures and containment efforts in different countries have caused difficulties in the prediction and modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic. We attempted to predict the scale of the latter half of the pandemic based on real data using the ratio between the early and latter halves from countries where the pandemic is largely over. We collected daily pandemic data from China, South Korea, and Switzerland and subtracted the ratio of pandemic days before and after the disease apex day of COVID-19. We obtained the ratio of pandemic data and created multiple regression models for the relationship between before and after the apex day. We then tested our models using data from the first wave of the disease from 14 countries in Europe and the US. We then tested the models using data from these countries from the entire pandemic up to March 30, 2021. Results indicate that the actual number of cases from these countries during the first wave mostly fall in the predicted ranges of liniar regression, excepting Spain and Russia. Similarly, the actual deaths in these countries mostly fall into the range of predicted data. Using the accumulated data up to the day of apex and total accumulated data up to March 30, 2021, the data of case numbers in these countries are falling into the range of predicted data, except for data from Brazil. The actual number of deaths in all the countries are at or below the predicted data. In conclusion, a linear regression model built with real data from countries or regions from early pandemics can predict pandemic scales of the countries where the pandemics occur late. Such a prediction with a high degree of accuracy provides valuable information for governments and the public

The mechanism of palmatine-mediated intestinal flora and host metabolism intervention in OA-OP comorbidity rats

BackgroundErXian decoction is a Chinese herbal compound that can prevent and control the course of osteoarthritis (OA) and osteoporosis (OP). OP and OA are two age-related diseases that often coexist in elderly individuals, and both are associated with dysregulation of the gut microbiome. In the initial study, Palmatine (PAL) was obtained by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) and network pharmacological screening techniques, followed by 16S rRNA sequencing and serum metabolomics of intestinal contents, to explore the mechanism of PAL in the treatment of OA and OP.MethodsThe rats selected for this study were randomly divided into three groups: a sham group, an OA-OP group and a PAL group. The sham group was intragastrically administered normal saline solution, and the PLA group was treated with PAL for 56 days. Through microcomputed tomography (micro-CT), ELISA, 16S rRNA gene sequencing and non-targeted metabonomics research, we explored the potential mechanism of intestinal microbiota and serum metabolites in PAL treatment of OA-OP rats.ResultsPalmatine significantly repair bone microarchitecture of rat femur in OA-OP rats and improved cartilage damage. The analysis of intestinal microflora showed that PAL could also improve the intestinal microflora disorder of OA-OP rats. For example, the abundance of Firmicutes, Bacteroidota, Actinobacteria, Lactobacillus, unclassified_f_Lachnospiraceae, norank_f_Muribaculaceae, Lactobacillaceae, Lachnospiraceae and Muribaculaceae increased after PAL intervention. In addition, the results of metabolomics data analysis showed that PAL also change the metabolic status of OA-OP rats. After PAL intervention, metabolites such as 5-methoxytryptophol, 2-methoxy acetaminophen sulfate, beta-tyrosine, indole-3-carboxylic acid-O-sulfate and cyclodopa glucoside increased. Association analysis of metabolomics and gut microbiota (GM) showed that the communication of multiple flora and different metabolites played an important role in OP and OA.ConclusionPalmatine can improve cartilage degeneration and bone loss in OA-OP rats. The evidence we provided supports the idea that PAL improves OA-OP by altering GM and serum metabolites. In addition, the application of GM and serum metabolomics correlation analysis provides a new strategy for uncovering the mechanism of herbal treatment for bone diseases

Fluid Retention Caused by Rosiglitazone Is Related to Increases in AQP2 and α

Peroxisome proliferator activated receptor-γ (PPARγ) is a ligand-activated transcription factor of the nuclear hormone receptor superfamily. The decreased phosphorylation of PPARγ due to rosiglitazone (ROS) is the main reason for the increased insulin sensitivity caused by this antidiabetic drug. However, there is no clear evidence whether the nuclear translocation of p-PPARγ stimulated by ROS is related to fluid retention. It is also unclear whether the translocation of p-PPARγ is associated with the change of aquaporin-2 (AQP2) and epithelial sodium channel α subunit (αENaC) in membranes, cytoplasm, and nucleus. Our experiments indicate that ROS significantly downregulates nuclear p-PPARγ and increases membrane AQP2 and αENaC; however, SR1664 (a nonagonist PPARγ ligand) reduces p-PPARγ and has no effect on AQP2 and αENaC. Therefore, we conclude that in vitro the fluid retention caused by ROS is associated with the increases in membrane αENaC and AQP2 but has little relevance to the phosphorylation of PPARγ

GCTOF-MS Combined LC-QTRAP-MS/MS Reveals Metabolic Difference Between Osteoarthritis and Osteoporotic Osteoarthritis and the Intervention Effect of Erxian Decoction

PurposeOP and OA are chronic bone diseases with high incidence in the middle-aged and elderly populations. The latest research shows that the pathological environment of OP may be involved in the aggravation of the pathological process of OA, and the pathological state of OP plays an important role in the aggravation of OA pathology. EXD is a traditional Chinese medicine decoction that has been used to treat osteoporosis. Therefore, we further study whether OA will be aggravated in the OP environment and whether EXD can alleviate OA by intervening in the OP environment. The purpose of this study was to analyze the effect of OP on OA metabolites by using metabolomic methods and to explore the intervention mechanism of EXD on osteoporotic OA.MethodThirty-two SD rats were randomly divided into normal group, OA group, OP-OA group, and EXD group. EXD was administered by gavage. Histopathological evaluation of cartilage tissue was performed using Saffron fast green and HE staining. Western blot and qRT-PCR were used to detect the expression levels of chondrogenesis genes SOX9, COL2A1, and COMP in cartilage tissue. GC-TOFMS and LC-QTRAP-MS/MS metabolomics methods were used to analyze the changes of metabolites in serum samples of rats in each group.ResultThe slice results showed that the cartilage damage in the OP-OA group was more serious than that in the OA group, which was significantly relieved after EXD intervention, indicating that the cartilage damage in the OP-OA group was more severe than that in the OA group and further reduced the protein and gene expressions of cartilage markers SOX9, COL2A1, and COMP. Thirty-seven substances were identified, and gentiopicroside, emodin, quercetin, and diosmetin were analyzed as possible active components of EXD. EXD treatment significantly reduced cartilage damage and reversed the expression of these markers. Metabolomics showed that EXD attenuated cartilage destruction by modulating the expression of cystine, chenodeoxycholate, and D-Turanose, involving glycolysis/gluconeogenesis, pantothenate, and CoA biosynthesis metabolic pathways.ConclusionThe OP environment may promote the progression of OA through metabolic factors. The benign intervention of EXD in osteoporotic OA involves cystine, chenodeoxycholate, and D-Turanose, and their associated glycolysis/gluconeogenesis, pantothenate, and CoA biosynthesis metabolic pathways. Therefore, we have a deep understanding of the metabolic-related intervention of EXD in osteoporotic OA and are eager to better understand the mechanism of multi-targeted intervention of EXD in bone metabolic lesions

Effect of Fluorosis on Liver Cells of VC Deficient and Wild Type Mice

For decades, mouse and other rodents have been used for the study of oxidative or related studies such as the effect of fluoride. It is known that rodents normally synthesize their own vitamin C (VC) due to the presence of a key enzyme in ascorbic acid synthesis, l-gulono-lactone-γ-oxidase (Gulo), while humans do not have the capacity of VC synthesis due to the deletion of most parts of the GULO gene. The spontaneous fracture (sfx) mouse recently emerged as a model for study of VC deficiency. We investigated the effect of fluoride on liver cells from wild type Balb/c and sfx mice. We found that activities of SOD, GPx, and CAT were reduced in both wild type and sfx mice; however, the amount of reduction in the sfx cells is more than that in Balb/c cells. In addition, while both cells increased MDA, the increase in the sfx cells is greater than that in Balb/c cells. Gene networks of Sod, Gpx, and Cat in the liver of humans and mice are also different. Our study suggests that reaction to fluoride in vitamin C deficient mice might be different from that of wild type mice

Effect of Fluorosis on liver cells of VC deficient and wild type mice

ABSTRACT For decades, mouse and other rodents have been used for study of oxidative or related studies such as the effect of fluoride. It is known that rodents normally synthesize their own vitamin C (VC) due to the presence of a key enzyme in ascorbic acid synthesis, lgulono-lactone-γ-oxidase (Gulo), while humans do not have the capacity of VC synthesis due to the deletion of most part of the GULO gene. The spontaneous fracture (sfx) mouse recently emerged as a model for study of VC deficiency. We investigated the effect of fluoride on liver cells from wild type Balb/c and sfx mice. We found that reduction of SOD, GPx and CAT activities were reduced in both wild type and sfx mice; however, the amount of reduction in the sfx cells is more than that in Balb/c cells. In addition, while both cells increased MDA, the increase in the sfx cells is greater than that in Balb/c cells. Gene networks of Sod, Gpx and Cat in the liver of humans and mice are also different. Our study suggests that reaction to fluoride in Vitamin C deficient mice might be different from that of wild type mice

Effect of Fluorosis on Liver Cells of VC Deficient and Wild Type Mice

For decades, mouse and other rodents have been used for the study of oxidative or related studies such as the effect of fluoride. It is known that rodents normally synthesize their own vitamin C (VC) due to the presence of a key enzyme in ascorbic acid synthesis, l-gulono-lactone--oxidase (Gulo), while humans do not have the capacity of VC synthesis due to the deletion of most parts of the GULO gene. The spontaneous fracture (sfx) mouse recently emerged as a model for study of VC deficiency. We investigated the effect of fluoride on liver cells from wild type Balb/c and sfx mice. We found that activities of SOD, GPx, and CAT were reduced in both wild type and sfx mice; however, the amount of reduction in the sfx cells is more than that in Balb/c cells. In addition, while both cells increased MDA, the increase in the sfx cells is greater than that in Balb/c cells. Gene networks of Sod, Gpx, and Cat in the liver of humans and mice are also different. Our study suggests that reaction to fluoride in vitamin C deficient mice might be different from that of wild type mice