A generalized linear mixed model for longitudinal binary data with a marginal logit link function

Longitudinal studies of a binary outcome are common in the health, social, and behavioral sciences. In general, a feature of random effects logistic regression models for longitudinal binary data is that the marginal functional form, when integrated over the distribution of the random effects, is no longer of logistic form. Recently, Wang and Louis [Biometrika 90 (2003) 765--775] proposed a random intercept model in the clustered binary data setting where the marginal model has a logistic form. An acknowledged limitation of their model is that it allows only a single random effect that varies from cluster to cluster. In this paper we propose a modification of their model to handle longitudinal data, allowing separate, but correlated, random intercepts at each measurement occasion. The proposed model allows for a flexible correlation structure among the random intercepts, where the correlations can be interpreted in terms of Kendall's $\tau$. For example, the marginal correlations among the repeated binary outcomes can decline with increasing time separation, while the model retains the property of having matching conditional and marginal logit link functions. Finally, the proposed method is used to analyze data from a longitudinal study designed to monitor cardiac abnormalities in children born to HIV-infected women.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS390 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Causes and patterns of readmissions in patients with common comorbidities: retrospective cohort study

Objective To evaluate the primary diagnoses and patterns of 30 day readmissions and potentially avoidable readmissions in medical patients with each of the most common comorbidities. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Setting: Academic tertiary medical centre in Boston, 2009-10. Participants: 10 731 consecutive adult discharges from a medical department. Main outcome measures Primary readmission diagnoses of readmissions within 30 days of discharge and potentially avoidable 30 day readmissions to the index hospital or two other hospitals in its network. Results: Among 10 731 discharges, 2398 (22.3%) were followed by a 30 day readmission, of which 858 (8.0%) were identified as potentially avoidable. Overall, infection, neoplasm, heart failure, gastrointestinal disorder, and liver disorder were the most frequent primary diagnoses of potentially avoidable readmissions. Almost all of the top five diagnoses of potentially avoidable readmissions for each comorbidity were possible direct or indirect complications of that comorbidity. In patients with a comorbidity of heart failure, diabetes, ischemic heart disease, atrial fibrillation, or chronic kidney disease, the most common diagnosis of potentially avoidable readmission was acute heart failure. Patients with neoplasm, heart failure, and chronic kidney disease had a higher risk of potentially avoidable readmissions than did those without those comorbidities. Conclusions: The five most common primary diagnoses of potentially avoidable readmissions were usually possible complications of an underlying comorbidity. Post-discharge care should focus attention not just on the primary index admission diagnosis but also on the comorbidities patients have

Access to essential technologies for safe childbirth: a survey of health workers in Africa and Asia

Background: The reliable availability of health technologies, defined as equipment, medicines, and consumable supplies, is essential to ensure successful childbirth practices proven to prevent avoidable maternal and newborn mortality. The majority of global maternal and newborn deaths take place in Africa and Asia, yet few data exist that describe the availability of childbirth-related health technologies in these regions. We conducted a cross-sectional survey of health workers in Africa and Asia in order to profile the availability of health technologies considered to be essential to providing safe childbirth care. Methods: Health workers in Africa and Asia were surveyed using a web-based questionnaire. A list of essential childbirth-related health technologies was drawn from World Health Organization guidelines for preventing and managing complications associated with the major causes of maternal and newborn mortality globally. Demographic data describing each birth center were obtained and health workers reported on the availability of essential childbirth-related health technologies at their centers. Comparison analyses were conducted using Rao-Scott chi-square test statistics. Results: Health workers from 124 birth centers in 26 African and 15 Asian countries participated. All facilities exhibited gaps in the availability of essential childbirth-related health technologies. Availability was significantly reduced in birth centers that had lower birth volumes and those from lower income countries. On average across all centers, health workers reported the availability of 18 of 23 essential childbirth-related health technologies (79%; 95% CI, 74%, 84%). Low-volume facilities suffered severe shortages; on average, these centers reported reliable availability of 13 of 23 technologies (55%; 95% CI, 39%, 71%). Conclusions: Substantial gaps exist in the availability of essential childbirth-related health technologies across health sector levels in Africa and Asia. Strategies that facilitate reliable access to vital health technologies in these regions are an urgent priority

Patient- and surgeon-adjusted control charts for monitoring performance

Objectives: To determine whether an innovative graphical tool for accurate measurement of individual surgeon performance metrics, adjusted for both surgeon-specific and patient-specific factors, significantly alters interpretation of performance data. Design: Retrospective analysis of all total knee replacements (TKRs) conducted at the host institution between 1996 and 2009. The database was randomly divided into training and testing datasets. Using multivariate generalised estimating equation regression models, the training dataset enabled generation of patient-risk and surgeon-experience adjustment factors. To simulate prospective monitoring of individual surgeon outcomes, the testing dataset was mapped on control charts. Weighted κ statistics were calculated to measure the agreement between patient-risk adjusted and fully adjusted control charts. Setting: Tertiary care academic hospital. Participants: All patients undergoing TKR at the host institution 1996–2009. Main outcome measure Operative efficiency. Results: 5313 procedures were analysed. Adjusted control charts were generated using a training dataset comprising 3756 procedures performed by 13 surgeons. The operative time gradually declined by 121 min with 25 years of experience (p<0.0001). Charts were tested by monitoring four other surgeons, performing an average of 389 procedures each. Adjustment for surgeon experience significantly altered the interpretation of operative efficiency (κ=0.29 (95% CI 0.11 to 0.47)), and enhanced assessment of a surgeon's improvement or diminishment in efficiency over time. Specifically, experience adjustment inverted the interpretation of surgeon efficiency from above average to below average, or from improving to declining performance. Conclusions: Adjustment for surgeon experience is necessary for accurate interpretation of metrics over the course of a surgeon's career. Patient-adjusted and surgeon-adjusted control charts provide an accurate method of monitoring individual operative efficiency

Simple Methods of Determining Confidence Intervals for Functions of Estimates in Published Results

Often, the reader of a published paper is interested in a comparison of parameters that has not been presented. It is not possible to make inferences beyond point estimation since the standard error for the contrast of the estimated parameters depends upon the (unreported) correlation. This study explores approaches to obtain valid confidence intervals when the correlation is unknown. We illustrate three proposed approaches using data from the National Health Interview Survey. The three approaches include the Bonferroni method and the standard confidence interval assuming (most conservative) or (when the correlation is known to be non-negative). The Bonferroni approach is found to be the most conservative. For the difference in two estimated parameter, the standard confidence interval assuming yields a 95% confidence interval that is approximately 12.5% narrower than the Bonferroni confidence interval; when the correlation is known to be positive, the standard 95% confidence interval assuming is approximately 38% narrower than the Bonferroni. In summary, this article demonstrates simple methods to determine confidence intervals for unreported comparisons. We suggest use of the standard confidence interval assuming if no information is available or if the correlation is known to be non-negative

Hospital Surgical Volume, Utilization, Costs and Outcomes of Retroperitoneal Lymph Node Dissection for Testis Cancer

Objectives. Retroperitoneal lymph node dissection (RPLND) outcomes for testis cancer originate mostly from single-center series. We characterized population-based utilization, costs, and outcomes and assessed whether higher volume affects outcomes. Methods and Materials. Using the US Nationwide Inpatient Sample from 2001–2008, we identified 993 RPLND and used propensity score methods to assess utilization, costs, and inpatient outcomes based on hospital surgical volume. Results. 51.6% of RPLND were performed at hospitals where there were two or fewer cases per year. RPLND was more commonly performed at large urban teaching hospitals, where men were younger, more likely to be white and earning incomes exceeding the 50th percentile (all P ≤ .05). Higher hospital volumes were associated with fewer complications and more routine home discharges (all P ≤ .047). However, higher volume hospitals had more transfusions (P = .004) and incurred $1,435 more in median costs (P < .001). Limitations include inability to adjust for tumor characteristics and absence of outpatient outcomes. Conclusions. Sociodemographic differences exist between high versus low volume RPLND hospitals. Although higher volume hospitals had more transfusions and higher costs, perhaps due to more complex cases, they experienced fewer complications. However, most RPLND are performed at hospitals where there were two or fewer cases per year