UK Housing Market: Time Series Processes with Independent and Identically Distributed Residuals

The paper examines whether a univariate data generating process can be identified which explains the data by having residuals that are independent and identically distributed, as verified by the BDS test. The stationary first differenced natural log quarterly house price index is regressed, initially with a constant variance and then with a conditional variance. The only regression function that produces independent and identically distributed standardised residuals is a mean process based on a pure random walk format with Exponential GARCH in mean for the conditional variance. There is an indication of an asymmetric volatility feedback effect but higher frequency data is required to confirm this. There could be scope for forecasting the index but this is tempered by the reduction in the power of the BDS test if there is a non-linear conditional variance process

Extreme Value Theory versus traditional GARCH approaches applied to financial data: a comparative evaluation

Although stock prices fluctuate, the variations are relatively small and are frequently assumed to be normally distributed on a large time scale. But sometimes these fluctuations can become determinant, especially when unforeseen large drops in asset prices are observed that could result in huge losses or even in market crashes. The evidence shows that these events happen far more often than would be expected under the generalised assumption of normally distributed financial returns. Thus it is crucial to model distribution tails properly so as to be able to predict the frequency and magnitude of extreme stock price returns. In this paper we follow the approach suggested by McNeil and Frey in 2000 and combine GARCH-type models with the extreme value theory to estimate the tails of three financial index returns ¿ S&P 500, FTSE 100 and NIKKEI 225 ¿ representing three important financial areas in the world. Our results indicate that EVT-based conditional quantile estimates are more accurate than those from conventional GARCH models assuming normal or Student¿s t distribution innovations when doing not only in-sample but also out-of-sample estimation. Moreover, these results are robust to alternative GARCH model specifications. The findings of this paper should be useful to investors in general, since their goal is to be able to forecast unforeseen price movements and take advantage of them by positioning themselves in the market according to these predictions

Monetary policy uncertainty spillovers in time and frequency domains

We use the recently created monthly Interest Rate Uncertainty measure, to investigate monetary policy uncertainty across the US, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, Canada, and Sweden in both the time and frequency domains. We find that the largest spillover indices are from innovations in the country itself; however, there are some instances where spillover indices between countries are large. These relationships change over time and we observe large variances in pairwise spillovers during the global financial crisis. We find that most of the volatility is confined to the crisis period. Policy makers should consider accounting for the spillovers from the US, Germany, France and Spain, as we found that they are the most consistent net transmitters of monetary policy uncertainty

Flow-aligned, single-shot fiber diffraction using a femtosecond X-ray free-electron laser

A major goal for X-ray free-electron laser (XFEL) based science is to elucidate structures of biological molecules without the need for crystals. Filament systems may provide some of the first single macromolecular structures elucidated by XFEL radiation, since they contain one-dimensional translational symmetry and thereby occupy the diffraction intensity region between the extremes of crystals and single molecules. Here, we demonstrate flow alignment of as few as 100 filaments (Escherichia coli pili, F-actin, and amyloid fibrils), which when intersected by femtosecond X-ray pulses result in diffraction patterns similar to those obtained from classical fiber diffraction studies. We also determine that F-actin can be flow-aligned to a disorientation of approximately 5 degrees. Using this XFEL-based technique, we determine that gelsolin amyloids are comprised of stacked β-strands running perpendicular to the filament axis, and that a range of order from fibrillar to crystalline is discernable for individual α-synuclein amyloids

A treatment applying a biomechanical device to the feet of patients with knee osteoarthritis results in reduced pain and improved function: a prospective controlled study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This study examined the effect of treatment with a novel biomechanical device on the level of pain and function in patients with knee OA.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Patients with bilateral knee OA were enrolled to active and control groups. Patients were evaluated at baseline, at 4 weeks and at the 8-week endpoint. A novel biomechanical device was individually calibrated to patients from the active group. Patients from the control group received an identical foot-worn platform without the biomechanical elements. Primary outcomes were the WOMAC Index and ALF assessments.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There were no baseline differences between the groups. At 8 weeks, the active group showed a mean improvement of 64.8% on the WOMAC pain scale, a mean improvement of 62.7% on the WOMAC function scale, and a mean improvement of 31.4% on the ALF scale. The control group demonstrated no improvement in the above parameters. Significant differences were found between the active and control groups in all the parameters of assessment.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The biomechanical device and treatment methodology is effective in significantly reducing pain and improving function in knee OA patients.</p> <p>The study is registered at clinicaltrials.gov, identifier NCT00457132, <url>http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct/show/NCT00457132?order=1</url></p

Image-Derived Input Function for Human Brain Using High Resolution PET Imaging with [11C](R)-rolipram and [11C]PBR28

The aim of this study was to test seven previously published image-input methods in state-of-the-art high resolution PET brain images. Images were obtained with a High Resolution Research Tomograph plus a resolution-recovery reconstruction algorithm using two different radioligands with different radiometabolite fractions. Three of the methods required arterial blood samples to scale the image-input, and four were blood-free methods. values was quantified using a scoring system. Using the image input methods that gave the most accurate results with Logan analysis, we also performed kinetic modelling with a two-tissue compartment model.)-rolipram, which has a lower metabolite fraction. Compartment modeling gave less reliable results, especially for the estimation of individual rate constants.C]PBR28), the more difficult it is to obtain a reliable image-derived input function; and 4) in association with image inputs, graphical analyses should be preferred over compartmental modelling

Biomic Specialization and Speciation Rates in Ruminants (Cetartiodactyla, Mammalia): A Test of the Resource-Use Hypothesis at the Global Scale

The resource-use hypothesis proposed by E.S. Vrba predicts that specialist species have higher speciation and extinction rates than generalists because they are more susceptible to environmental changes and vicariance. In this work, we test some of the predictions derived from this hypothesis on the 197 extant and recently extinct species of Ruminantia (Cetartiodactyla, Mammalia) using the biomic specialization index (BSI) of each species, which is based on its distribution within different biomes. We ran 10000 Monte Carlo simulations of our data in order to get a null distribution of BSI values against which to contrast the observed data. Additionally, we drew on a supertree of the ruminants and a phylogenetic likelihood-based method (QuaSSE) for testing whether the degree of biomic specialization affects speciation rates in ruminant lineages. Our results are consistent with the predictions of the resource-use hypothesis, which foretells a higher speciation rate of lineages restricted to a single biome (BSI = 1) and higher frequency of specialist species in biomes that underwent high degree of contraction and fragmentation during climatic cycles. Bovids and deer present differential specialization across biomes; cervids show higher specialization in biomes with a marked hydric seasonality (tropical deciduous woodlands and schlerophyllous woodlands), while bovids present higher specialization in a greater variety of biomes. This might be the result of divergent physiological constraints as well as a different biogeographic and evolutionary history