Are African Countries Paying Too Much Attention To Agriculture?

Africa, Agriculture, Poverty

Correcting for sampling bias in the measurement of welfare and poverty : the case of the Cote d'Ivoire living standards survey

Over the years, household surveys have become a popular, valuable data source for empirical research in microeconomics. In developing countries, household survey data have become more available in the past decade, as a result of several international programs. This has spurred interest in the economics of the household in the context of development economics. Many analysts give little attention to the sampling design of the surveys they use, taking the data produced by statisticians and survey practitioners as is. At best, sampling weights are applied to ensure that the results are representative. The authors illustrate the need to pay close attention to the sampling aspects of a household survey used in applied microeconomic analysis - particularly for comparisons over time. This case study shows that observed changes in household welfare and in the incidence of poverty in Cote d'Ivoire between 1985 and 1988 vanish when corrections are applied to the data for changes in sampling procedures; even the direction of the trend is reversed. Similarly, the cross-sectional patterns of welfare and poverty observed in earlier analyses for 1985-86 prove to be incorrect. The Cote d'Ivoire Living Standards Survey, conducted between 1985 and 1988, has provided a popular, fruitful data set for policy analysis. But according to the authors, the recorded decline in mean household size during this period is due to sampling bias in the early years of the survey. If this is true, the robustness of the analyses based on these data is questionable.Poverty Assessment,Poverty Lines,Science Education,Scientific Research&Science Parks,VN-Acb Mis -- IFC-00535908

The (Evolving) Role of Agriculture in Poverty Reduction: An Empirical Perspective

The role of agriculture in development remains much debated. This paper takes an empirical perspective and focuses on poverty, as opposed to growth alone. The contribution of a sector to poverty reduction is shown to depend on its own growth performance, its indirect impact on growth in other sectors, the extent to which poor people participate in the sector, and the size of the sector in the overall economy. Bringing together these different effects using cross-country econometric evidence indicates that agriculture is significantly more effective than nonagriculture in reducing poverty among the poorest of the poor (as reflected in the $1-day squared poverty gap). It is also up to 3.2 times better at reducing$1-day headcount poverty in low-income and resource-rich countries (including those in sub-Saharan Africa), at least when societies are not fundamentally unequal. However, when it comes to the better-off poor (reflected in the $2-day measure), non-agriculture has the edge. These results are driven by the much larger participation of poorer households in growth from agriculture and the lower poverty-reducing effect of non-agriculture in the presence of extractive industries.agriculture, economic growth, poverty, sub-Saharan Africa

The role of agriculture in poverty reduction an empirical perspective

The relative contribution of a sector to poverty reduction is shown to depend on its direct and indirect growth effects as well as its participation effect. The paper assesses how these effects compare between agriculture and non-agriculture by reviewing the literature and by analyzing cross-country national accounts and poverty data from household surveys. Special attention is given to Sub-Saharan Africa. While the direct growth effect of agriculture on poverty reduction is likely to be smaller than that of non-agriculture (though not because of inherently inferior productivity growth), the indirect growth effect of agriculture (through its linkages with nonagriculture) appears substantial and at least as large as the reverse feedback effect. The poor participate much more in growth in the agricultural sector, especially in low-income countries, resulting in much larger poverty reduction impact. Together, these findings support the overall premise that enhancing agricultural productivity is the critical entry-point in designing effective poverty reduction strategies, including in Sub-Saharan Africa. Yet, to maximize the poverty reducing effects, the right agricultural technology and investments must be pursued, underscoring the need for much more country specific analysis of the structure and institutional organization of the rural economy in designing poverty reduction strategies.Rural Poverty Reduction,Achieving Shared Growth,Economic Theory&Research,Rural Development Knowledge&Information Systems

Growth, distribution, and poverty in Africa : messages from the 1990s

review recent evidence on the trends in household well-being in Africa during the 1990s. They draw on the findings of a series of studies on poverty dynamics that use the better data sets now available. The authors begin by taking a broad view of poverty, tracing changes in both income poverty and in other more direct measures of individual welfare. Experiences have been varied: several countries have seen a sharp decline in poverty, while some have witnessed a marked increase. Yet, in the aggregate, economic growth has been pro-poor. Nonetheless, the aggregate numbers also hide significant and systematic distributional effects which have caused some groups to be left behind. The authors draw four key conclusions: Economic policy reforms (improving macroeconomic balances and liberalizing markets) have been conducive to reducing poverty. Market connectedness is key for the poor to benefit from new opportunities generated by economic growth. Some population groups and regions, by virtue of their sheer remoteness, have been left behind when growth picks up. Education and access to land further condition the extent to which households can benefit from economic opportunities and escape poverty. Finally, rainfall variations and ill health are found to have profound effects on poverty outcomes in Africa underscoring the significance of social protection in a poverty reduction strategy.Health Economics&Finance,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Environmental Economics&Policies,Public Health Promotion,Services&Transfers to Poor,Governance Indicators,Achieving Shared Growth,Poverty Assessment,Environmental Economics&Policies,Health Economics&Finance

Reforms, Remoteness and Risk in Africa: Understanding Inequality and Poverty during the 1990s

reforms, remoteness, risk, poverty, Africa

Migration Patterns in Pakistan: Preliminary Results from the PLM Survey, 1979

This paper reports some preliminary results of the PLM survey, as they relate to migration flews in Pakistan. Section II reviews the implications of the data collection methodology, and is followed (in Section III) by an analysis of the major flows of internal migration. Section IV deals separately with international migration and Section VIII draws some concluding observations

Migration Patterns in Pakistan: Preliminary Results from the PLM Survey, 1979

This paper reports some preliminary results of the PLM survey, as they relate to migration flews in Pakistan. Section II reviews the implications of the data collection methodology, and is followed (in Section III) by an analysis of the major flows of internal migration. Section IV deals separately with international migration and Section VIII draws some concluding observations

Are Poverty and Social Goals for the 21st Century Attainable?

Summaries The article assesses the prospects for countries attaining two important International Development Goals (IDGs) by the year 2015: halving the proportion of people living in extreme poverty; and reducing by two thirds the death rate for children. On the basis of recent growth experience and predicted GDP growth rates, the picture is mixed. About a half of the developing countries for which data are available are likely to reach the poverty reduction target. However, with improved economic policy (reflected in the ‘openness’ index), the number of countries shown likely to achieve the target increases sharply. Prospects for achieving the child mortality target are much bleaker. Even under the most favorable scenario – improved female education and high economic growth – child mortality rates would be substantially above the IDG target for 2015. The article reviews the types of public action that are needed now if these targets are to be attained. It emphasises the need to focus on policy and institutional reforms needed to achieve well?functioning social sectors