Labour market forecasts and their use: Practices in the Scandinavian countries

The ongoing restructuring of todays labour markets and the swift changes in occupational structures and skill requirements generate a risk for unbalanced growth in the supply and demand for qualifications. This paper concentrates on the instruments employed in Scandinavia to identify labour market mismatches, understood as shortages of qualifications related to a certain occupation or education group. There are various actors engaged in the forecasting of labour market developments in the individual countries. The public employment services (PES) stand out as the main actor concerning the identification of short-term needs and the characteristics of current mismatches. The PES efforts are primarily carried out on the regional and/or local levels, and the central tools are comprehensive company surveys and ongoing regular contacts with the surrounding society. The information obtained is essential to adjust the focus of labour market training, which has the primary objective to support the employment offices in their efforts to smooth the matching process on the labour market. -- Die kontinuierlichen Strukturveränderungen an den Arbeitsmärkten führen zu starken Veränderungen in der Beschäftigungsstruktur und den Qualifikationserfordernissen. Unter diesen Bedingungen besteht die Gefahr für Ungleichgewicht im Angebot und in der Nachfrage von Qualifikationen. Das vorliegende Papier fokussiert auf die Instrumente, die in Skandinavien eingesetzt werden, um Mismatch verstanden als nicht erfüllte Qualifikationserfordernisse, die an eine bestimmte Tätigkeit oder ein bestimmtes Qualifikationsniveau gerichtet sind zu identifizieren. Es gibt verschiedene Akteure, die an Arbeitsmarktprognosen in den einzelnen skandinavischen Ländern arbeiten. Bezogen auf kurzfristige Prognosen sind die nationalen Arbeitsmarktverwaltungen (PES) mit Abstand die wichtigsten. Die zentralen Werkzeuge der PES sind umfassende statistische Untersuchungen und kontinuierliche Kontakte mit der umgebenden Gesellschaft, die hauptsächlich auf der regionalen und/oder lokalen Ebene durchgeführt werden. Die Prognosen, die auf die Unterstützung der Tätigkeit der Arbeitsämter ausgerichtet sind, beeinflussen den Fokus der beruflichen Aus- und Weiterbildung.

Essential facilities for telecom and data transmission

Over the last couple of decades, the importance of transmission capacity for telecommunications has grown. Enough upgraded, it can be used for both telephony, data transmission, cable TV, provision of movies, and a number of other services. For the provision of all these services, it is absolutely essential to have access to a transmission medium. The existing networks are often built up protected by a legal or de facto monopoly and have only recently been opened for competition. But the former monopolists can maintain a dominant position using their control of these networks. A well-known concept in competition law is the doctrine about ''essential facilities''. An essential facility is a facility, equipment or infrastructure which is controlled by a dominant undertaking and is absolutely necessary for competitors for being able to provide their services. The origin of the doctrine is found in the US, and one of the most quoted tests for an essential facility is given in the American case MCI v. AT&amp&semicT from 1983. According to the court, four elements must be established for applying the doctrine: 1. the essential facility is controlled by a monopolist&semic 2. the essential facility can not practically or reasonably be duplicated by the competitor&semic 3. the competitor is denied to use the facility&semic and 4. the owner could have provided access to the facility. In EC law, there have been a number of cases regarding inter alia harbours and programme listings necessary for the publishing of a TV guide. In two European cases from 1998, European Night Services (CFI) and Bronner (ECJ), the courts did not apply the doctrine since they did not find the facilities unduplicable. In the latter case, the Court found that there were alternatives, ''even though they may be less advantageous''. In both US and the EC, telecommunications laws have been developed towards competition and deregulation. The backgrounds are however different&semic in the US, AT&amp&semicT had a regulated private monopoly, while the European telecom sector was characterized by public monopolies, often with both regulatory and service functions. The breakthrough for competition in the US was the division of AT&amp&semicT after an agreement in an antitrust case in 1982. AT&amp&semicT's local exchange carriers (BOCs), were separated from AT&amp&semicT and were prohibited from providing long-distance services. To promote competition in the local services as well, the Telecommunications Act of 1996 requires local exchange carriers to inter alia afford access to some parts of their networks to competitors. If the local exchange carrier is an ''incumbent local exchange carrier'', it also has to negotiate in good faith with those carriers which want interconnection, provide interconnection ''at any technically feasible point'', and provide non-discriminatory access to network elements on an unbundled basis. In a number of directives from the middle of the 1980s up to the present, the EC member states have been required to abolish all special or exclusive rights in the telecom sector. In almost all member states, full competition was introduced in 1998. Since the enactment of the Telecommunications Act in 1993, Sweden has been further on the road towards an open market compared to most European countries. This lead seems now to have been obliterated. There are two main opportunities to get transmission access&semic interconnection and by constructing a network of leased or owned lines. Interconnection means the physical and logical linking of networks which makes it possible to communicate with subscribers of another network. Under European law, telecommunications organizations have a right and an obligation to interconnect with each other. When constructing a network, the bottleneck is the local access network. There are a number of more or less advantageous alternatives to the traditional telecommunications network, the most suitable one is probably the cable TV network. In a directive from 1999, the Commission requires that cable TV networks and telecommunications network owned by a single operator are separate legal entities. The other main alternative for a competitive service provider is to lease the connections from the local switch to the customer and thus take over that customer. In September 1999, the Post and Telecom Agency handed over a proposal for new legislation in Sweden which would require Telia AB to lease out these local connections to rates based on costs. The Commission has in a notice clarified how it intends to apply the competition rules in the telecom sector. It considers that the concept of essential facilities will be of relevance, and notes that alternative networks like cable TV networks are not satisfactory alternatives yet. When establishing that an undertaking has a dominant position, the relevant market must be defined. With a very narrow market definition, ''provision of services to Mr X'', smaller network operators would also be required to give access to their networks. For the customer, there are reasons for that market definition. He could otherwise only subscribe to the network connected to his house. The Commission's statement that cable TV networks are not satisfactory alternatives yet is not in accordance with the Court's ruling in Bronner. Cable TV networks are already used for telephony services, They may be less advantageous for the competitor, but so were Bronner's alternatives as well. It is in the interest of the whole society that transmission capacity is constructed. It is therefore important that the legislation regarding the use of connections promote investments in new such infrastructure. It is necessary with special rules giving access to the former monopolists' networks on rates based on costs to promote competition, but in the long run it must be possible to make a profit on investments in transmission capacity. Otherwise it will not be built

Forecasting and responding to qualification needs in Sweden

"In Schweden ziehen sich jedes Jahr mehr Menschen aus dem aktiven Erwerbsleben zurück, als neue eintreten. Zusätzlich führen kontinuierliche Strukturveränderungen der Arbeitsmärkte zu starken Veränderungen in der Beschäftigungsstruktur und den Qualifikationserfordernissen. Unter diesen Bedingungen ist es möglicherweise wichtiger als je zuvor, effizientes Matching zwischen dem Angebot an und der Nachfrage nach Qualifikationen zu sichern. Zentrales Thema des vorliegenden Beitrags ist die Identifikation und Reduzierung von qualifikatorischem Mismatch, der sich durch die Gleichzeitigkeit von Arbeitslosigkeit und Fachkräftebedarf auf den Arbeitsmärkten ausdrückt. Es gibt verschiedene Akteure, die an Arbeitsmarktprognosen in Schweden arbeiten, wobei das schwedische statistische Zentralbüro (SCB) und die schwedische nationale Arbeitsmarktverwaltung (AMV) mit Abstand die wichtigsten sind. Aktuelle Prognosen zeigen vermindernde Rekrutierungsprobleme in Schweden, aber sie heben auch einige Ausnahmen zu dieser Tendenz hervor, insbesondere bei Tätigkeiten im Bereich der Gemeinden. Andere nicht erfüllte Qualifikationserfordernisse schließen technische Qualifikationen und langfristig auch Bauarbeiter ein. Die Resultate der Prognosen werden für die Planung im Bildungssystem verwendet, insbesondere hinsichtlich des Bedarfs innerhalb von Berufen mit leicht identifizierbaren Qualifikationen. Allerdings basieren die Prognosen auf verhältnismäßig restriktive Annahmen und sie sind nicht imstande, neue Tätigkeitsprofile und neue Berufe zu erkennen und zu berücksichtigen. Darüber hinaus ist der Prozess des Ausgleichs zwischen Angebot von und Nachfrage nach Qualifikationen in Schweden durch kontinuierliche Interaktionen zwischen dem Aus- und Weiterbildungssystem und der Gesellschaft gekennzeichnet. Das vorliegende Papier berichtet über Prognosemodelle und -methoden, aktuelle Ergebnisse sowie über die Verwendbarkeit relevanter Referenzstatistiken in Schweden. Des Weiteren werden Maßnahmen gegen Fehlentwicklungen diskutiert, die durch aktive Anpassung des allgemeinen Angebots auf optimale Verteilung des Angebots an Qualifikationen zielen. Die wichtigsten Institutionen des schwedischen Bildungssystem werden mit Fokus auf ihre Verbindungen zwischen Bildungsangebot und Prognoseergebnissen, staatliche Steuerung und institutionellem Rahmen, allgemeine Angebotsstrategien und Netzwerkbildung mit der übrigen Gesellschaft verglichen. Das Papier schließt auch einen Abschnitt ein, der einige Beispiele neuer Tendenzen und Entwicklungen in der Anpassung an Qualifikationserfordernisse in Schweden darstellt." (Autorenreferat)"There are more people exiting than entering their active working life in Sweden every year. In addition, the ongoing restructuring of labour markets implies significant changes in occupational structures and skill requirements. Under such conditions it is perhaps more important and more challenging than ever, to ensure efficient matching of qualification supply and demand. The central theme of this paper is the identification and tackling of labour market mismatches where unemployment and labour shortages are found simultaneously. There are various different actors engaged in the forecasting of labour market developments in Sweden but Statistics Sweden (SCB) and the National Labour Market Administration (AMV) stand out as the main providers. Recent forecasts indicate diminishing recruitment problems in Sweden but they also highlight several exceptions to this trend, in particular within the municipality sector. Other nonmatched skill needs include technical qualifications and, in the long run, construction workers. The forecast results are used for planning with the system of qualification supply, in particular concerning the need for labour within occupations with clearly identifiable qualification demands. Nevertheless, the forecasts are based on relatively strong assumptions and they are unable to fully account for the innovation of new jobs and new types of education. An important aspect of the Swedish adjustment process is the ongoing interactions with the surrounding society. The paper accounts for forecast models and methods, recent results as well as availability of relevant reference statistics in Sweden. The discussion on tackling of mismatches accounts for active public supply adjustment aiming for optimal distribution of the supply labour by type of qualification. The main institutions within the Swedish system of qualification supply are discussed with focus on the links between training supply and forecast results, government management and institutional framework, general supply strategy and measures, and networks with the surrounding society. The paper also includes a section presenting some examples of recent trends and developments of skill matching in Sweden." (author's abstract

The Swedish social insurance system for the self-employed

"The increasing number of smaller and relatively short-lived companies and the growing number of individuals working in the 'grey zone' between dependent employment and selfemployment present several challenges for the social security system. Social insurance in Sweden is controlled by the state and uniform throughout the country, and it consists of employment-conditional as well as residence-based benefit schemes. In general, there is no link between the two types of schemes, the former offers earnings-related benefits and the latter provides a basic level of protection to individuals with low or no income. This paper focuses on the social earnings-related protection for selfemployed persons, with the social security system for employees as a point of reference. It argues that universalism is a central feature of the Swedish social protection system, and that it has been gradually extended to cover the self-employed according to largely the same principles as those for employees. For each group, however, there are slightly different regulations related to when a person is entitled to benefits and how the daily allowances are calculated. In particular, the loss-of-income principle implies that it is central for the selfemployed person to 'earn a salary' since revenues that are reinvested in the company are not considered when calculating the daily allowances. The study highlights the difficulty to design a fair system that considers entrepreneurs as workers in need of protection, their role on a competitive market, and that takes into account that self-employed persons generally have more control over their working situation than employees do." (author's abstract)"Die steigende Anzahl kleinerer und oft relativ kurz bestehender Betriebe sowie die wachsende Grauzone zwischen abhängiger Beschäftigung und Selbstständigkeit stellen das System der sozialen Sicherung vor bestimmte Herausforderungen. Die Sozialversicherung in Schweden wird vom Staat kontrolliert, sie ist innerhalb des Landes einheitlich geregelt und besteht sowohl aus einem beschäftigungsabhängigen System als auch aus einem auf dem Prinzip der Einwohnerschaft basierenden System. Generell besteht zwischen diesen beiden Systemen der Sozialversicherung kein Zusammenhang. Das erste System bietet Sozialleistungen im Verhältnis zum Einkommen, das zweite sorgt für einen grundlegenden sozialen Schutz der Individuen, die über kein oder nur ein geringes Einkommen verfügen. Der Schwerpunkt dieser Studie liegt auf dem einkommensabhängigen System für Selbstständige im Vergleich zu abhängig Beschäftigten. Es wird argumentiert, dass Universalismus ein zentraler Bestandteil des schwedischen Systems der Sozialen Sicherung ist, welches schrittweise erweitert wurde, um Selbstständige zu weitgehend gleichen Bedingungen wie abhängig Beschäftigte zu erfassen. Nichtsdestotrotz bestehen zwischen den beiden Beschäftigungsgruppen leichte Unterschiede bezüglich der Bedingungen unter denen soziale Leistungen gezahlt werden und bei der Berechnung der Höhe der täglichen Ansprüche. So ist es für Selbstständige wichtig, einen Teil der Einkünfte als 'Gehalt' zu deklarieren, da betriebliche (Re-)Investitionen nicht in die Berechnung der täglichen Ansprüche eingehen. Die vorliegende Studie verdeutlicht die Schwierigkeiten, ein faires System zu entwickeln, welches Selbstständige als schutzbedürftige Erwerbstätige betrachtet, ihre Rolle in einem wettbewerbsgeprägten Markt nicht außer Acht lässt und außerdem berücksichtigt, dass sie in der Regel ein höheres Maß an Kontrolle über ihre Arbeitssituation haben als abhängig Beschäftigte." (Autorenreferat

Labour market forecasts and their use: practices in the Scandinavian countries

"The ongoing restructuring of today's labour markets and the swift changes in occupational structures and skill requirements generate a risk for unbalanced growth in the supply and demand for qualifications. This paper concentrates on the instruments employed in Scandinavia to identify labour market mismatches, understood as shortages of qualifications related to a certain occupation or education group. There are various actors engaged in the forecasting of labour market developments in the individual countries. The public employment services (PES) stand out as the main actor concerning the identification of short-term needs and the characteristics of current mismatches. The PES efforts are primarily carried out on the regional and/ or local levels, and the central tools are comprehensive company surveys and ongoing regular contacts with the surrounding society. The information obtained is essential to adjust the focus of labour market training, which has the primary objective to support the employment offices in their efforts to smooth the matching process on the labour market. In all three countries, models have also been developed to project medium and long-term supply of labour by education groups and demand for labour by branch. A common feature of these models is that they offer thought-provoking mismatch scenarios rather than genuine prognoses of the most probable labour market outcome. To some extent the projections are employed to regulate the education and training dimensions, primarily within higher education. However, the central political strategy in the Scandinavian countries is to provide all individuals with an adequate education offer. Thus, the medium- and long-term projections appear primarily useful for individuals deciding on their career paths, and to highlight situations where there is an obvious conflict between the individuals' demand for education and training and the labour market needs for certain types of skills. Other central aspects of the Scandinavian system include decentralisation, management by objectives, and representation of the social partners in important advisory as well as decision-making bodies at national and regional level." (author's abstract)"Die kontinuierlichen Strukturveränderungen an den Arbeitsmärkten führen zu starken Veränderungen in der Beschäftigungsstruktur und den Qualifikationserfordernissen. Unter diesen Bedingungen besteht die Gefahr für Ungleichgewicht im Angebot und in der Nachfrage von Qualifikationen. Das vorliegende Papier fokussiert auf die Instrumente, die in Skandinavien eingesetzt werden, um Mismatch verstanden als nicht erfüllte Qualifikationserfordernisse, die an eine bestimmte Tätigkeit oder ein bestimmtes Qualifikationsniveau gerichtet sind zu identifizieren. Es gibt verschiedene Akteure, die an Arbeitsmarktprognosen in den einzelnen skandinavischen Ländern arbeiten. Bezogen auf kurzfristige Prognosen sind die nationalen Arbeitsmarktverwaltungen (PES) mit Abstand die wichtigsten. Die zentralen Werkzeuge der PES sind umfassende statistische Untersuchungen und kontinuierliche Kontakte mit der umgebenden Gesellschaft, die hauptsächlich auf der regionalen und/ oder lokalen Ebene durchgeführt werden. Die Prognosen, die auf die Unterstützung der Tätigkeit der Arbeitsämter ausgerichtet sind, beeinflussen den Fokus der beruflichen Aus- und Weiterbildung. In allen drei Ländern sind auch Modelle entwickelt worden, um mittel- und langfristiges Angebot und Nachfrage zu prognostisieren. Eine allgemeine Eigenschaft dieser Modelle ist, dass sie Szenarien anbieten, die wirtschafts- und bildungspolitische Initiativen und Ideen stimulieren sollen, nicht aber als exakte Prognosen der wahrscheinlichsten Entwicklungen auf den Arbeitsmärkten dienen sollen. Dennoch werden die mittel- und langfristigen Prognosen als grobe Orientierung eingesetzt, um die Ausbildungs- und Trainingskapazitäten, hauptsächlich innerhalb der höheren Ausbildung, zu regulieren. Dennoch ist die zentrale politische Strategie in den skandinavischen Ländern, allen Personen ein ausreichendes Ausbildungsangebot anzubieten. So scheinen die Mittel- und langfristigen Projektionen hauptsächlich für Personen geeignet, die Karriereentscheidungen treffen möchten. Außerdem machen sie auf Situationen aufmerksam, in denen es einen offensichtlichen Konflikt zwischen der Ausbildungsnachfrage der Personen und den notwendigen Qualifikationserfordernissen des Arbeitsmarktes gibt. Andere zentrale Aspekte des skandinavischen Systems sind Dezentralisierung, Management by Objectives (MBO), und die Präsenz der Sozialpartner in den wichtigen beratenden und beschlussfassenden Organen auf nationaler und regionaler Ebene." (Autorenreferat

Forecasting and responding to qualification needs in Sweden

There are more people exiting than entering their active working life in Sweden every year. In addition, the ongoing restructuring of labour markets implies significant changes in occupational structures and skill requirements. Under such conditions it is perhaps more important and more challenging than ever, to ensure efficient matching of qualification supply and demand. The central theme of this paper is the identification and tackling of labour market mismatches where unemployment and labour shortages are found simultaneously. -- In Schweden ziehen sich jedes Jahr mehr Menschen aus dem aktiven Erwerbsleben zurück, als neue eintreten. Zusätzlich führen kontinuierliche Strukturveränderungen der Arbeitsmärkte zu starken Veränderungen in der Beschäftigungsstruktur und den Qualifikationserfordernissen. Unter diesen Bedingungen ist es möglicherweise wichtiger als je zuvor, effizientes Matching zwischen dem Angebot an und der Nachfrage nach Qualifikationen zu sichern. Zentrales Thema des vorliegenden Beitrags ist die Identifikation und Reduzierung von qualifikatorischem Mismatch, der sich durch die Gleichzeitigkeit von Arbeitslosigkeit und Fachkräftebedarf auf den Arbeitsmärkten ausdrückt.

Assimilation of GNSS ZTD with HARMONIE

Póster presentado en: International Symposium on Data Assimilation 2014 celebrado en Munich, del 24 al 28 de febrero de 201

Variational bias correction of GNSS ZTD in the HARMONIE modeling system

To fill the gap in the observation system for humidity, the HIRLAM–ALADIN Research on Mesoscale Operational NWP in Euromed(HARMONIE) limited-area high-resolution kilometer-scale model has been prepared for assimilation of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) zenith total delay (ZTD) observations. The observation-processing system includes data selection, bias correction, quality control, and a GNSS observation operator for data assimilation. A large part of the bias between observations and model equivalents comes from the relatively low model top used in the HARMONIE experiments. The functionality of the different observation-processing components was investigated in detail as was the overall performance of the GNSS ZTD data assimilation. This paper contains an extensive description of the GNSS ZTD observation-processing system and a comparison of a newly introduced variational bias correction for GNSS ZTD data with an alternative static bias correction, as well as a detailed analysis of the impact of GNSS ZTD data, both in terms of statistical evaluations over a longer period and in terms of individual case studies. Assimilation of the GNSS ZTD observations with a variational bias correction has improved the quality of short-range weather forecasts for the moisture-related parameters in particular, both in a statistical sense and in individual case studies. The paper also discusses further improvements in the HARMONIE variational data-assimilation system that are needed to fully utilize the potential of high-resolution GNSS ZTD observations

HARMONIE-AROME 4D-Var

The status of CY43 HARMONIE-AROME 4D-Var is presented. Central to the HARMONIE-AROME 4D-Var implementation is the multi-incremental approach and the current setup comprises two outer loops at six and three times the main forecast grid resolution of 2.5 km. This setup is flexible though, as is the length of the observation window. Results will be given for 4D-Var in comparison to 3D-Var for three domains, centered around Scandinavia, the Iberian Peninsula and the Netherlands. The starting point here is that both 3D-Var and 4D-Var are using identical observations types. Generally speaking it can be concluded that 4DVar forecasts are superior. The paper also gives an extensive list of opportunities from which particularly HARMONIE-AROME 4D-Var can benefit. For example, increasing the observation set, improving the treatment of observations during the observation window and new algorithmic avenues