Nonparametric modeling and forecasting electricity demand: an empirical study

This paper uses half-hourly electricity demand data in South Australia as an empirical study of nonparametric modeling and forecasting methods for prediction from half-hour ahead to one year ahead. A notable feature of the univariate time series of electricity demand is the presence of both intraweek and intraday seasonalities. An intraday seasonal cycle is apparent from the similarity of the demand from one day to the next, and an intraweek seasonal cycle is evident from comparing the demand on the corresponding day of adjacent weeks. There is a strong appeal in using forecasting methods that are able to capture both seasonalities. In this paper, the forecasting methods slice a seasonal univariate time series into a time series of curves. The forecasting methods reduce the dimensionality by applying functional principal component analysis to the observed data, and then utilize an univariate time series forecasting method and functional principal component regression techniques. When data points in the most recent curve are sequentially observed, updating methods can improve the point and interval forecast accuracy. We also revisit a nonparametric approach to construct prediction intervals of updated forecasts, and evaluate the interval forecast accuracy.Functional principal component analysis; functional time series; multivariate time series, ordinary least squares, penalized least squares; ridge regression; seasonal time series

Holographic QCD with Topologically Charged Domain-Wall/Membranes

We study the thermodynamical phase structures of holographic QCD with nontrivial topologically charged domain-wall/membranes which are originally related to the multiple $\theta$-vacua in the large $N_c$ limit. We realize the topologically charged membranes as the holographic D6-brane fluxes in the Sakai-Sugimoto model. The D6-brane fluxes couple to the probe D8-anti-D8 via Chern-Simon term, and act as the source for the baryonic current density of QCD. We find rich phase structures of the dual meson system by varying asymptotic separation of D8 and anti-D8. Especially, there can be a thermodynamically favored and stable phase of finite baryonic current density. This provides the supporting evidence for the discovery of the topologically charged membranes found in the lattice QCD calculations. We also find a crossover phase with the limiting baryonic current density and temperature which suggest a Hagedorn-like phase transition of meson dissociation.Comment: 23 pages, 19 figures;v2 typos corrected;v3 text improve