Modelled glacier response to centennial temperature and precipitation trends on the Antarctic Peninsula

The northern Antarctic Peninsula is currently undergoing rapid atmospheric warming1. Increased glacier-surface melt during the twentieth century2, 3 has contributed to ice-shelf collapse and the widespread acceleration4, thinning and recession5 of glaciers. Therefore, glaciers peripheral to the Antarctic Ice Sheet currently make a large contribution to eustatic sea-level rise6, 7, but future melting may be offset by increased precipitation8. Here we assess glacier–climate relationships both during the past and into the future, using ice-core and geological data and glacier and climate numerical model simulations. Focusing on Glacier IJR45 on James Ross Island, northeast Antarctic Peninsula, our modelling experiments show that this representative glacier is most sensitive to temperature change, not precipitation change. We determine that its most recent expansion occurred during the late Holocene ‘Little Ice Age’ and not during the warmer mid-Holocene, as previously proposed9. Simulations using a range of future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate scenarios indicate that future increases in precipitation are unlikely to offset atmospheric-warming-induced melt of peripheral Antarctic Peninsula glaciers

Oceanic Controls on the Mass Balance of Wilkins Ice Shelf, Antarctica

Several Antarctic Peninsula (AP) ice shelves have lost significant fractions of their volume over the past decades, coincident with rapid regional climate change. Wilkins Ice Shelf (WIS), on the western side of the AP, is the most recent, experiencing a sequence of large calving events in 2008 and 2009. We analyze the mass balance for WIS for the period 1992-2008 and find that the averaged rate of ice-shelf thinning was similar to 0.8 m a(-1), driven by a mean basal melt rate of \u3c w(b)\u3e = 1.3 +/- 0.4 m a(-1). Interannual variability was large, associated with changes in both surface mass accumulation and \u3c w(b)\u3e. Basal melt rate declined significantly around 2000 from 1.8 +/- 0.4 m a(-1) for 1992-2000 to similar to 0.75 +/- 0.55 m a(-1) for 2001-2008; the latter value corresponding to approximately steady-state ice-shelf mass. Observations of ocean temperature T obtained during 2007-2009 by instrumented seals reveal a cold, deep halo of Winter Water (WW; T approximate to - 1.6 degrees C) surrounding WIS. The base of the WW in the halo is similar to 170 m, approximately the mean ice draft for WIS. We hypothesize that the transition in \u3c w(b)\u3e in 2000 was caused by a small perturbation (similar to 10-20 m) in the relative depths of the ice base and the bottom of the WW layer in the halo. We conclude that basal melting of thin ice shelves like WIS is very sensitive to upper-ocean and coastal processes that act on shorter time and space scales than those affecting basal melting of thicker West Antarctic ice shelves such as George VI and Pine Island Glacier

Elevation change of the Greenland Ice Sheet due to surface mass balance and firn processes, 1960–2014

© The Author(s), 2015. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in The Cryosphere 9 (2015): 2009-2025, doi:10.5194/tc-9-2009-2015.Observed changes in the surface elevation of the Greenland Ice Sheet are caused by ice dynamics, basal elevation change, basal melt, surface mass balance (SMB) variability, and by compaction of the overlying firn. The last two contributions are quantified here using a firn model that includes compaction, meltwater percolation, and refreezing. The model is forced with surface mass fluxes and temperature from a regional climate model for the period 1960–2014. The model results agree with observations of surface density, density profiles from 62 firn cores, and altimetric observations from regions where ice-dynamical surface height changes are likely small. In areas with strong surface melt, the firn model overestimates density. We find that the firn layer in the high interior is generally thickening slowly (1–5 cm yr−1). In the percolation and ablation areas, firn and SMB processes account for a surface elevation lowering of up to 20–50 cm yr−1. Most of this firn-induced marginal thinning is caused by an increase in melt since the mid-1990s and partly compensated by an increase in the accumulation of fresh snow around most of the ice sheet. The total firn and ice volume change between 1980 and 2014 is estimated at −3295 ± 1030 km3 due to firn and SMB changes, corresponding to an ice-sheet average thinning of 1.96 ± 0.61 m. Most of this volume decrease occurred after 1995. The computed changes in surface elevation can be used to partition altimetrically observed volume change into surface mass balance and ice-dynamically related mass changes.P. Kuipers Munneke received financial support from the Netherlands Polar Programme (NPP) of the Netherlands Institute for Scientific Research (NWO). ECMWF at Reading (UK) is acknowledged for use of the Cray supercomputing system. The J. E. Box contribution is supported by Det Frie Forskningsråd grant 4002-00234 and Geocenter Denmark

Multicenter Comparison of Molecular Tumor Boards in The Netherlands:Definition, Composition, Methods, and Targeted Therapy Recommendations

Background Molecular tumor boards (MTBs) provide rational, genomics-driven, patient-tailored treatment recommendations. Worldwide, MTBs differ in terms of scope, composition, methods, and recommendations. This study aimed to assess differences in methods and agreement in treatment recommendations among MTBs from tertiary cancer referral centers in The Netherlands. Materials and Methods MTBs from all tertiary cancer referral centers in The Netherlands were invited to participate. A survey assessing scope, value, logistics, composition, decision-making method, reporting, and registration of the MTBs was completed through on-site interviews with members from each MTB. Targeted therapy recommendations were compared using 10 anonymized cases. Participating MTBs were asked to provide a treatment recommendation in accordance with their own methods. Agreement was based on which molecular alteration(s) was considered actionable with the next line of targeted therapy. Results Interviews with 24 members of eight MTBs revealed that all participating MTBs focused on rare or complex mutational cancer profiles, operated independently of cancer type-specific multidisciplinary teams, and consisted of at least (thoracic and/or medical) oncologists, pathologists, and clinical scientists in molecular pathology. Differences were the types of cancer discussed and the methods used to achieve a recommendation. Nevertheless, agreement among MTB recommendations, based on identified actionable molecular alteration(s), was high for the 10 evaluated cases (86%). Conclusion MTBs associated with tertiary cancer referral centers in The Netherlands are similar in setup and reach a high agreement in recommendations for rare or complex mutational cancer profiles. We propose a "Dutch MTB model" for an optimal, collaborative, and nationally aligned MTB workflow. Implications for Practice Interpretation of genomic analyses for optimal choice of target therapy for patients with cancer is becoming increasingly complex. A molecular tumor board (MTB) supports oncologists in rationalizing therapy options. However, there is no consensus on the most optimal setup for an MTB, which can affect the quality of recommendations. This study reveals that the eight MTBs associated with tertiary cancer referral centers in The Netherlands are similar in setup and reach a high agreement in recommendations for rare or complex mutational profiles. The Dutch MTB model is based on a collaborative and nationally aligned workflow with interinstitutional collaboration and data sharing

A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance

We combined an ensemble of satellite altimetry, interferometry, and gravimetry data sets using common geographical regions, time intervals, and models of surface mass balance and glacial isostatic adjustment to estimate the mass balance of Earth's polar ice sheets. We find that there is good agreement between different satellite methods-especially in Greenland and West Antarctica-and that combining satellite data sets leads to greater certainty. Between 1992 and 2011, the ice sheets of Greenland, East Antarctica, West Antarctica, and the Antarctic Peninsula changed in mass by -142 plus or minus 49, +14 plus or minus 43, -65 plus or minus 26, and -20 plus or minus 14 gigatonnes year(sup 1), respectively. Since 1992, the polar ice sheets have contributed, on average, 0.59 plus or minus 0.20 millimeter year(sup 1) to the rate of global sea-level rise

Boosting care and knowledge about hereditary cancer: European Reference Network on Genetic Tumour Risk Syndromes

Approximately 27–36 million patients in Europe have one of the ~ 5.000–8.000 known rare diseases. These patients often do not receive the care they need or they have a substantial delay from diagnosis to treatment. In March 2017, twenty-four European Reference Networks (ERNs) were launched with the aim to improve the care for these patients through cross border healthcare, in a way that the medical knowledge and expertise travels across the borders, rather than the patients. It is expected that through the ERNs, European patients with a rare disease get access to expert care more often and more quickly, and that research and guideline development will be accelerated resulting in improved diagnostics and therapies. The ERN on Genetic Tumour Risk Syndromes (ERN GENTURIS) aims to improve the identification, genetic diagnostics, prevention of cancer, and treatment of European patients with a genetic predisposition for cancer. The ERN GENTURIS focuses on syndromes such as hereditary breast cancer, hereditary colorectal cancer and polyposis, neurofibromatosis and more rare syndromes e.g. PTEN Hamartoma Tumour Syndrome, Li Fraumeni Syndrome and hereditary diffuse gastric cancer

Modelled Antarctic firn depth averaged over 1979-2013 and corresponding brine zones area

The firn densification model IMAU-FDM has been used to simulate the firn density profile around Antarctica. The model is forced at the surface with climate data from the RACMO2.3 regional climate model. Here we provide the depth of three key firn density layers below the surface (750, 800 and 830 kgm^-3), averaged over the period 1979-2013. The data is on a horizontal grid of 27x27 km. The depth of each of these density layers was then subtracted from the surface elevation provided by Bedmap2 to determine where permeable firn exists below sea level. This defines the "brine zone" - the region where seawater may infiltrate the firn layer. We also provide shapefiles mapping the brine zone for each of three stated densities

Brief communication: Improved simulation of the present-day Greenland firn layer (1960-2016)

By providing pore space for storage or refreezing of meltwater, the Greenland ice sheet firn layer strongly modulates runoff. Correctly representing the firn layer is therefore crucial for Greenland (surface) mass balance studies. Here, we present a simulation of the Greenland firn layer with the firn model IMAU-FDM forced by the latest output of the regional climate model RACMO2, version 2.3p2. In the percolation zone, much improved agreement is found with firn density and temperature observations. A full simulation of Greenland firn at high temporal (10 days) and spatial (11 km) resolution is available for the period 1960–2016

Modelled firn air content and 10 m firn temperature for the Greenland ice sheet (1960-2016) in NetCDF format

The firn density, temperature and liquid water content of the Greenland ice sheet have been modelled with the IMAU-FDM firn model. IMAU-FDM is forced at the surface with the latest output of the regional climate model RACMO2.3p2. The data is on a horizontal grid of 11x11 km and covers 1960-2016 with a 10-day temporal resolution. Here, time series of the firn air content (vertically integrated difference between firn and ice density (= 917 kg m-3)) and 10-m firn temperature are provided. All other IMAU-FDM output is available from the authors without conditions