Hamiltonian analysis of subcritical stochastic epidemic dynamics

We extend a technique of approximation of the long-term behavior of a supercritical stochastic epidemic model, using the WKB approximation and a Hamiltonian phase space, to the subcritical case. The limiting behavior of the model and approximation are qualitatively different in the subcritical case, requiring a novel analysis of the limiting behavior of the Hamiltonian system away from its deterministic subsystem. This yields a novel, general technique of approximation of the quasistationary distribution of stochastic epidemic and birth-death models, and may lead to techniques for analysis of these models beyond the quasistationary distribution. For a classic SIS model, the approximation found for the quasistationary distribution is very similar to published approximations but not identical. For a birth-death process without depletion of susceptibles, the approximation is exact. Dynamics on the phase plane similar to those predicted by the Hamiltonian analysis are demonstrated in cross-sectional data from trachoma treatment trials in Ethiopia, in which declining prevalences are consistent with subcritical epidemic dynamics

Identifying a sufficient core group for trachoma transmission.

BackgroundIn many infectious diseases, a core group of individuals plays a disproportionate role in transmission. If these individuals were effectively prevented from transmitting infection, for example with a perfect vaccine, then the disease would disappear in the remainder of the community. No vaccine has yet proven effective against the ocular strains of chlamydia that cause trachoma. However, repeated treatment with oral azithromycin may be able to prevent individuals from effectively transmitting trachoma.Methodology/principal findingsHere we assess several methods for identifying a core group for trachoma, assuming varying degrees of knowledge about the transmission process. We determine the minimal core group from a completely specified model, fitted to results from a large Ethiopian trial. We compare this benchmark to a core group that could actually be identified from information available to trachoma programs. For example, determined from the rate of return of infection in a community after mass treatments, or from the equilibrium prevalence of infection.Conclusions/significanceSufficient groups are relatively easy for programs to identify, but will likely be larger than the theoretical minimum

Spatial heterogeneity in projected leprosy trends in India

Background: Leprosy is caused by infection with Mycobacterium leprae and is characterized by peripheral nerve damage and skin lesions. The disease is classified into paucibacillary (PB) and multibacillary (MB) leprosy. The 2012 London Declaration formulated the following targets for leprosy control: (1) global interruption of transmission or elimination by 2020, and (2) reduction of grade-2 disabilities in newly detected cases to below 1 per million population at a global level by 2020. Leprosy is treatable, but diagnosis, access to treatment and treatment adherence (all necessary to curtail transmission) represent major challenges. Globally, new case detection rates for leprosy have remained fairly stable in the past decade, with India responsible for more than half of cases reported annually. Methods: We analyzed publicly available data from the Indian Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, and fit linear mixed-effects regression models to leprosy case detection trends reported at the district level. We assessed correlation of the new district-level case detection rate for leprosy with several state-level regressors: TB incidence, BCG coverage, fraction of cases exhibiting grade 2 disability at diagnosis, fraction of cases in children, and fraction multibacillary. Results: Our analyses suggest an endemic disease in very slow decline, with substantial spatial heterogeneity at both district and state levels. Enhanced active case finding was associated with a higher case detection rate. Conclusions: Trend analysis of reported new detection rates from India does not support a thesis of rapid progress in leprosy control

Short-term leprosy forecasting from an expert opinion survey.

We conducted an expert survey of leprosy (Hansen's Disease) and neglected tropical disease experts in February 2016. Experts were asked to forecast the next year of reported cases for the world, for the top three countries, and for selected states and territories of India. A total of 103 respondents answered at least one forecasting question. We elicited lower and upper confidence bounds. Comparing these results to regression and exponential smoothing, we found no evidence that any forecasting method outperformed the others. We found evidence that experts who believed it was more likely to achieve global interruption of transmission goals and disability reduction goals had higher error scores for India and Indonesia, but lower for Brazil. Even for a disease whose epidemiology changes on a slow time scale, forecasting exercises such as we conducted are simple and practical. We believe they can be used on a routine basis in public health

Cytotoxic clinical isolates of Pseudomonas aeruginosa identified during the Steroids for Corneal Ulcers Trial show elevated resistance to fluoroquinolones.

BackgroundTo determine the relationship between type three secretion genotype and fluoroquinolone resistance for P. aeruginosa strains isolated from microbial keratitis during the Steroids for Corneal Ulcers Trial (SCUT) and for two laboratory strains, PA103 and PAO1.MethodsConfirmed P. aeruginosa isolates from the SCUT were divided into exoU(+) or exoU(-). The exoU(+) strains contained the gene encoding ExoU, a powerful phospholipase toxin delivered into host cells by the type three secretion system. Isolates were then assessed for susceptibility to fluoroquinolone, cephalosporin, and aminoglycoside antibiotics using disk diffusion assays. Etest was used to determine the MIC of moxifloxacin and other fluoroquinolones. Laboratory isolates in which the exoU gene was added or deleted were also tested.ResultsA significantly higher proportion of exoU(+) strains were resistant to ciprofloxacin (p = 0.001), gatifloxacin (p = 0.003), and ofloxacin (p = 0.002) compared to exoU(-) isolates. There was no significant difference between exoU(+) or exoU(-) negative isolates with respect to susceptibility to other antibiotics except gentamicin. Infections involving resistant exoU(+) strains trended towards worse clinical outcome. Deletion or acquisition of exoU in laboratory isolates did not affect fluoroquinolone susceptibility.ConclusionsFluoroquinolone susceptibility of P. aeruginosa isolated from the SCUT is consistent with previous studies showing elevated resistance involving exoU encoding (cytotoxic) strains, and suggest worse clinical outcome from infections involving resistant isolates. Determination of exoU expression in clinical isolates of P. aeruginosa may be helpful in directing clinical management of patients with microbial keratitis

Eliminating Trachoma in Areas with Limited Disease

The common wisdom is that a trachoma program cannot eliminate ocular chlamydia from a community, just reduce infection to a level where there would be minimal blindness. We describe the success of multiple mass antibiotic treatments, demonstrating that complete elimination of infection may be an attainable goal in an area with modest disease

Linear growth in preschool children treated with mass azithromycin distributions for trachoma: A cluster-randomized trial.

BackgroundMass azithromycin distributions have been shown to reduce mortality among pre-school children in sub-Saharan Africa. It is unclear what mediates this mortality reduction, but one possibility is that antibiotics function as growth promoters for young children.Methods and findings24 rural Ethiopian communities that had received biannual mass azithromycin distributions over the previous four years were enrolled in a parallel-group, cluster-randomized trial. Communities were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to either continuation of biannual oral azithromycin (20mg/kg for children, 1 g for adults) or to no programmatic antibiotics over the 36 months of the study period. All community members 6 months and older were eligible for the intervention. The primary outcome was ocular chlamydia; height and weight were measured as secondary outcomes on children less than 60 months of age at months 12 and 36. Study participants were not masked; anthropometrists were not informed of the treatment allocation. Anthropometric measurements were collected for 282 children aged 0-36 months at the month 12 assessment and 455 children aged 0-59 months at the month 36 assessment, including 207 children who had measurements at both time points. After adjusting for age and sex, children were slightly but not significantly taller in the biannually treated communities (84.0 cm, 95%CI 83.2-84.8, in the azithromycin-treated communities vs. 83.7 cm, 95%CI 82.9-84.5, in the untreated communities; mean difference 0.31 cm, 95%CI -0.85 to 1.47, P = 0.60). No adverse events were reported.ConclusionsPeriodic mass azithromycin distributions for trachoma did not demonstrate a strong impact on childhood growth.Trial registrationThe TANA II trial was registered on clinicaltrials.gov #NCT01202331