Spatial analysis of harmonic oscillation of gypsy moth outbreak intensity

Abstract Outbreaks of many forest-defoliating insects are synchronous over broad geographic areas and occur with a period of approximately 10 years. Within the range of the gypsy moth in North America, however, there is considerable geographic heterogeneity in strength of periodicity and the frequency of outbreaks. Furthermore, gypsy moth outbreaks exhibit two significant periodicities: a dominant period of 8-10 years and a subdominant period of 4-5 years. In this study, we used a simulation model and spatially referenced time series of outbreak intensity data from the Northeastern United States to show that the bimodal periodicity in the intensity of gypsy moth outbreaks is largely a result of harmonic oscillations in gypsy moth abundance at and above a 4 km 2 scale of resolution. We also used geographically weighted regression models to explore the effects of gypsy moth host-tree abundance on the periodicity of gypsy moths. We found that the strength of 5-year cycles increased relative to the strength of 10-year cycles with increasing host tree abundance. We suggest that this pattern emerges because high host-tree availability enhances the growth rates of gypsy moth populations

Tracing the role of human civilization in the globalization of plant pathogens

Acknowledgments. We apologize to all those colleagues whose work was not cited because of space restrictions.Peer reviewedPostprin

Analysis of a spatial Lotka-Volterra model with a finite range predator-prey interaction

We perform an analysis of a recent spatial version of the classical Lotka-Volterra model, where a finite scale controls individuals' interaction. We study the behavior of the predator-prey dynamics in physical spaces higher than one, showing how spatial patterns can emerge for some values of the interaction range and of the diffusion parameter.Comment: 7 pages, 7 figure

Predicting non-native insect impact: focusing on the trees to see the forest

Non-native organisms have invaded novel ecosystems for centuries, yet we have only a limited understanding of why their impacts vary widely from minor to severe. Predicting the impact of non-established or newly detected species could help focus biosecurity measures on species with the highest potential to cause widespread damage. However, predictive models require an understanding of potential drivers of impact and the appropriate level at which these drivers should be evaluated. Here, we used non-native, specialist herbivorous insects of forest ecosystems to test which factors drive impact and if there were differences based on whether they used woody angiosperms or conifers as hosts. We identified convergent and divergent patterns between the two host types indicating fundamental similarities and differences in their interactions with non-native insects. Evolutionary divergence time between native and novel hosts was a significant driver of insect impact for both host types but was modulated by different factors in the two systems. Beetles in the subfamily Scolytinae posed the highest risk to woody angiosperms, and different host traits influenced impact of specialists on conifers and woody angiosperms. Tree wood density was a significant predictor of host impact for woody angiosperms with intermediate densities (0.5–0.6 mg/mm3) associated with highest risk, whereas risk of impact was highest for conifers that coupled shade tolerance with drought intolerance. These results underscore the importance of identifying the relevant levels of biological organization and ecological interactions needed to develop accurate risk models for species that may arrive in novel ecosystems

Predators reduce extinction risk in noisy metapopulations

Background Spatial structure across fragmented landscapes can enhance regional population persistence by promoting local “rescue effects.” In small, vulnerable populations, where chance or random events between individuals may have disproportionately large effects on species interactions, such local processes are particularly important. However, existing theory often only describes the dynamics of metapopulations at regional scales, neglecting the role of multispecies population dynamics within habitat patches. Findings By coupling analysis across spatial scales we quantified the interaction between local scale population regulation, regional dispersal and noise processes in the dynamics of experimental host-parasitoid metapopulations. We find that increasing community complexity increases negative correlation between local population dynamics. A potential mechanism underpinning this finding was explored using a simple population dynamic model. Conclusions Our results suggest a paradox: parasitism, whilst clearly damaging to hosts at the individual level, reduces extinction risk at the population level

Around the world in 500 years: Inter‐regional spread of alien species over recent centuries

Aim: The number of alien species has been increasing for centuries world-wide, but temporal changes in the dynamics of their inter-regional spread remain unclear. Here, we analyse changes in the rate and extent of inter-regional spread of alien species over time and how these dynamics vary among major taxonomic groups. Location: Global. Time period: 1500–2010. Major taxa studied: Vascular plants, mammals, birds, fishes, arthropods and other invertebrates. Methods: Our analysis is based on the Alien Species First Record Database, which comprises >60,000 entries describing the year when an alien species was first recorded in a region (mostly countries and large islands) where it later established as an alien species. Based on the number and distribution of first records, we calculated metrics of spread between regions, which we termed “inter-regional spread”, and conducted statistical analyses to assess variations over time and across taxonomic groups. Results: Almost all (>90%) species introduced before 1700 are found in more than one region today. Inter-regional spread often took centuries and is ongoing for many species. The intensity of inter-regional spread increased over time, with particularly steep increases after 1800. Rates of spread peaked for plants in the late 19th century, for birds and invertebrates in the late 20th century, and remained largely constant for mammals and fishes. Inter-regional spread for individual species showed hump-shaped temporal patterns, with the highest rates of spread at intermediate alien range sizes. Approximately 50% of widespread species showed signs of declines in spread rates. Main conclusions: Our results show that, although rates of spread have declined for many widespread species, for entire taxonomic groups they have tended to increase continuously over time. The large numbers of alien species that are currently observed in only a single region are anticipated to be found in many other regions in the future

Illustrations and guidelines for selecting statistical methods for quantifying spatial pattern in ecological data

This paper aims to provide guidance to ecologists with limited experience in spatial analysis to help in their choice of techniques, It uses examples to compare methods of spatial analysis for ecological field data. A taxonomy of different data types is presented, including point- and area-referenced data, with and without attributes. Spatially and non-spatially explicit data are distinguished. The effects of sampling and other transformations that convert one data type to another are discussed; the possible loss of spatial information is considered. Techniques for analyzing spatial pattern, developed in plant ecology, animal ecology, landscape ecology, geostatistics and applied statistics are reviewed briefly and their overlap in methodology and philosophy noted. The techniques are categorized according to their output and the inferences that may be drawn from them, in a discursive style without formulae. Methods are compared for four case studies with field data covering a range of types. These are: 1) percentage cover of three shrubs along a line transect 2) locations and volume of a desert plant in a I ha area: 3) a remotely-sensed spectral index and elevation from 10(5) km(2) of a mountainous region; and 4) land cover from three rangeland types within 800 km2 of a coastal region. Initial approaches utilize mapping, frequency distributions and variance-mean indices. Analysis techniques we compare include: local quadrat variance, block, quadrat variance, correlograms, variograms, angular correlation, directional variograms, wavelets, SADIE, nearest neighbour methods, Ripley's L(t), and various landscape ecology metrics. Our advice to ecologists is to use simple visualization techniques for initial analysis, and subsequently to select methods that are appropriate for the data type and that answer their specific questions of interest, It is usually prudent to employ several different techniques