A Bayesian correlated frailty model applied to Swedish breast cancer data

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Unobserved heterogeneity in a model with cure fraction applied to breast cancer

We suggest a cure-mixture model to analyze bivariate time-to-event data, as motivated by the paper of Chatterjee and Shih (2001, Biometrics 57, 779 - 786), but with a simpler estimation procedure and the correlated gamma-frailty model instead of the shared gamma-frailty model. This approach allows us to deal with left truncated and right censored lifetime data and accounts for heterogeneity as well as for an insusceptible (cure) fraction in the study population. We perform a simulation study to evaluate the properties of the estimates in the proposed model and apply it to breast cancer incidence data for 5,857 Swedish female monozygotic and dizygotic twin pairs from the so-called old cohort of the Swedish Twin Registry. This model is used to estimate the size of the susceptible fraction and the correlation between the frailties of the twin partners. Possible extensions, advantages and limitations of the proposed method are discussed.Sweden, breast, cancer, correlation, survival, twins

Maltreatment-associated neurodevelopmental disorders: a co-twin control analysis

Background: Childhood maltreatment (CM) is strongly associated with psychiatric disorders in childhood and adulthood. Previous findings suggest that the association between CM and psychiatric disorders is partly causal and partly due to familial confounding, but few studies have investigated the mechanisms behind the association between CM and neurodevelopmental disorders (NDDs). Our objective was to determine whether maltreated children have an elevated number of NDDs and whether CM is a risk factor for an increased NDD ‘load’ and increased NDD symptoms when controlling for familial effects. Methods: We used a cross-sectional sample from a population-representative Swedish twin study, comprising 8,192 nine-year-old twins born in Sweden between 1997 and 2005. CM was defined as parent-reported exposure to emotional abuse/neglect, physical neglect, physical abuse, and/or sexual abuse. Four NDDs were measured with the Autism–Tics, AD/HD, and other comorbidities inventory. Results: Maltreated children had a greater mean number of NDDs than nonmaltreated children. In a co-twin control design, CM-discordant monozygotic twins did not differ significantly for their number of NDDs, suggesting that CM is not associated with an increased load of NDDs when genetic and shared environmental factors are taken into account. However, CM was associated with a small increase in symptoms of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and autism spectrum disorder in CM-discordant MZ twins, although most of the covariance of CM with NDD symptoms was explained by common genetic effects. Conclusions: Maltreated children are at higher risk of having multiple NDDs. Our findings are, however, not consistent with the notion that CM causes the increased NDD load in maltreated children. Maltreated children should receive a full neurodevelopmental assessment, and clinicians should be aware that children with multiple NDDs are at higher risk of maltreatment

Common psychiatric disorders share the same genetic origin : a multivariate sibling study of the Swedish population.

Recent studies have shown that different mental-health problems appear to be partly influenced by the same set of genes, which can be summarized by a general genetic factor. To date, such studies have relied on surveys of community-based samples, which could introduce potential biases. The goal of this study was to examine whether a general genetic factor would still emerge when based on a different ascertainment method with different biases from previous studies. We targeted all adults in Sweden (n=3 475 112) using national registers and identified those who had received one or more psychiatric diagnoses after seeking or being forced into mental health care. In order to examine the genetic versus environmental etiology of the general factor, we examined whether participants' full- or half-siblings had also received diagnoses. We focused on eight major psychiatric disorders based on the International Classification of Diseases, including schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder, bipolar disorder, depression, anxiety, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, alcohol use disorder and drug abuse. In addition, we included convictions of violent crimes. Multivariate analyses demonstrated that a general genetic factor influenced all disorders and convictions of violent crimes, accounting for between 10% (attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder) and 36% (drug abuse) of the variance of the conditions. Thus, a general genetic factor of psychopathology emerges when based on both surveys as well as national registers, indicating that a set of pleiotropic genes influence a variety of psychiatric disorders.National Institute of Health, R01 HD056354-04A1Swedish Research Council for Health, Working Life and WelfareSwedish Research CouncilAccepte

Billiards and Brains: Cognitive Ability and Behavior in a p-Beauty Contest

"Beauty contests" are well-studied, dominance-solvable games that generate two interesting results. First, most behavior does not conform to the unique Nash equilibrium. Second, there is considerable unexplained heterogeneity in behavior. In this work, we evaluate the relationship between beauty contest behavior and cognitive ability. We find that subjects with high cognitive ability exhibit behavior that is closer to the Nash equlibrium. We examine this finding through the prism of economic and biological theory.beauty contest; rationality; cognitive ability; Nash equlibrium

Psychotic experiences as a predictor of the natural course of suicidal ideation: a Swedish cohort study

Psychotic experiences are far more prevalent in the population than psychotic disorders and are associated with a wide range of depressive, anxiety and behavioral disorders, as well as increased risk for psychotic disorder. Recently, psychotic experiences have been highlighted as a potentially valuable clinical marker of risk for suicidal behavior. There have been few studies to date, however, to assess psychotic experiences as a predictor of suicidality over time. We wished to assess whether young persons with suicidal ideation at baseline assessment who reported psychotic experiences were at higher risk for persistence of suicidal ideation at follow-up than young persons who also reported suicidal ideation at baseline but who did not report co-occurring psychotic experiences. A total of 2,263 adolescents were assessed at age 13 to 14 years for psychotic experiences, suicidal ideation and internalizing and externalizing psychopathology. Participants were re-assessed at ages 16 to 17 years and 19 to 20 years. Among 13- to 14-year olds with suicidal ideation, co-occurring psychotic experiences did not predict an increased odds of persistence of suicidal ideation to age 16 to 17 years (OR=0.94, 95% CI: 0.19-4.78). Among 16- to 17-year olds with suicidal ideation, however, co-occurring psychotic experiences predicted a 6-fold increased odds of persistence of suicidal ideation to age 19 to 20 years (OR=5.53, 95% CI: 1.33-23.00). Psychotic experiences are an important but under-recognized marker of risk for persistence of suicidal ideation, in particular from mid-adolescence. An increased emphasis on the clinical assessment of psychotic experiences in mental health services should be a priority.VetenskapsrådetForteManuscrip

Assessing the evidence for shared genetic risks across psychiatric disorders and traits

Genetic influences play a significant role in risk for psychiatric disorders, prompting numerous endeavors to further understand their underlying genetic architecture. In this paper, we summarize and review evidence from traditional twin studies and more recent genome-wide molecular genetic analyses regarding two important issues that have proven particularly informative for psychiatric genetic research. First, emerging results are beginning to suggest that genetic risk factors for some (but not all) clinically diagnosed psychiatric disorders or extreme manifestations of psychiatric traits in the population share genetic risks with quantitative variation in milder traits of the same disorder throughout the general population. Second, there is now evidence for substantial sharing of genetic risks across different psychiatric disorders. This extends to the level of characteristic traits throughout the population, with which some clinical disorders also share genetic risks. In this review, we summarize and evaluate the evidence for these two issues, for a range of psychiatric disorders. We then critically appraise putative interpretations regarding the potential meaning of genetic correlation across psychiatric phenotypes. We highlight several new methods and studies which are already using these insights into the genetic architecture of psychiatric disorders to gain additional understanding regarding the underlying biology of these disorders. We conclude by outlining opportunities for future research in this area

The impact of birth mode of delivery on childhood asthma and allergic diseases : a sibling study

Background: Caesarean section (CS) has been reported to increase the risk of asthma in offspring. This may be due to that infants delivered by CS are unexposed to vaginal flora, according to the ‘hygiene hypothesis’. Objective: Our aim was to investigate if CS increases risk of childhood asthma, and if the risk increase remains after adjustment for familial confounding using sibling design. Methods: A register-based cohort study with 87 500 Swedish sibling pairs was undertaken. Asthma outcome variables were collected from national health registers as diagnosis or asthma medication (ICD-10 J45-J46; ATC code R03) during the 10th or 13th year of life (year of follow-up). Mode of delivery and confounders were retrieved from the Medical Birth Register. The data were analysed both as a cohort and with sibling control analysis which adjusts for unmeasured familial confounding. Results: In the cohort analyses, there was an increased risk of asthma medication and asthma diagnosis during year of follow-up in children born with CS (adjusted ORs, 95% CI 1.13, 1.04–1.24 and 1.10, 1.03–1.18 respectively). When separating between emergency and elective CS the effect on asthma medication remained for emergency CS, but not for elective CS, while both groups had significant effects on asthma diagnosis compared with vaginal delivery. In sibling control analyses, the effect of elective CS on asthma disappeared, while similar but non-significant ORs of medication were obtained for emergency CS. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance: An increased risk of asthma medication in the group born by emergency CS, but not elective, suggests that there is no causal effect due to vaginal microflora. A more probable explanation should be sought in the indications for emergency CS.Swedish Research CouncilCentre for Allergy ResearchStiftelsen Frimurare-Barnhuset i StockholmALF KI/SLLPublishe