A scoping review of simulation modeling in built environment and physical activity research: Current status, gaps, and future directions for improving translation

Existing reviews have suggested that simulation studies of physical activity and environments are an emerging area, but none have explored findings in this area systematically. We used a scoping review framework to assess the use of simulation modeling to inform decision-making about built environment influences on physical activity. A systematic literature search was conducted in multiple databases in January 2018. Sixteen articles met the inclusion criteria. The studies evaluated interventions and features that were related to neighborhood safety (crime or traffic), active transportation, land use design, and walking and biking infrastructure. All of the studies focused on urban areas and most considered heterogeneity of outcomes based on local context. The majority of studies (70%) did not appear to have engaged or been used by practitioners or policy-makers to inform real-world decisions. There has been a growth of simulation modeling studies, but there remain gaps. The studies evaluated built environment interventions that have been recommended by expert panels, but more were of interventions related to active transportation; few considered recommended interventions to support recreational activity. Furthermore, studies have all focused on urban settings and there is a need to consider non-urban settings and how heterogeneity could reduce or exacerbate health disparities. More work to involve and evaluate practices for engaging stakeholders in model development and interpretation is also needed to overcome the translation of simulation research to practice gap, and realize its potential impact on the built environment and physical activity

Integrating complex systems science into road safety research and practice, Part 2: Applying systems tools to the problem of increasing pedestrian death rates

Objectives To provide a specific example of how systems dynamics tools can increase understanding of stakeholder mental models' and generate robust systems-based hypotheses about the escalating problem of rising pedestrian death rates in the USA. Methods We designed and facilitated two group model building (GMB) workshops. Participants generated causal loop diagrams (CLDs) individually and in small groups to explore hypotheses concerning time-dynamic interacting factors underlying the increasing rates of pedestrian deaths. Using a grounded theory approach, research team members synthesised the structures and hypotheses into a single CLD. Results CLDs from the 41 participants indicated four core factors hypothesised to have a direct impact on pedestrian fatalities: pedestrian-vehicle crashes, vehicle speed at the time of the crash, vehicle size/dimensions and emergency response time. Participants diagrammed how actions and reactions impacted these proximal factors over time and led to ripple effects throughout a larger system to generate an increase in pedestrian deaths. Hypothesised contributing mechanisms fell within the following broad categories: community responses; research, policy and industry influence; potential unintended consequences of responses to pedestrian deaths; and the role of sprawl. Conclusions This application of systems science tools suggested several strategies for advancing injury prevention research and practice. The project generated robust hypotheses and advanced stakeholder communication and depth of understanding and engagement in this key issue. The CLD and GMB process detailed in this study provides a concrete example of how systems tools can be adopted and applied to a transportation safety topic

Integrating complex systems science into road safety research and practice, part 1: review of formative concepts

Many of our most persistent public health problems are complex problems. They arise from a web of factors that interact and change over time and may exhibit resistance to intervention efforts. The domain of systems science provides several tools to help injury prevention researchers and practitioners examine deep, complex and persistent problems and identify opportunities to intervene. Using the increase in pedestrian death rates as an example, we provide (1) an accessible overview of how complex systems science approaches can augment established injury prevention frameworks and (2) a straightforward example of how specific systems science tools can deepen understanding, with a goal of ultimately informing action

Cardiovascular genetic risk testing for targeting statin therapy in the primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease

Background: It is unclear whether testing for novel risk factors, such as a cardiovascular genetic risk score (cGRS), improves clinical decision making or health outcomes when used for targeting statin initiation in the primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Our objective was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of cGRS testing to inform clinical decision making about statin initiation in individuals with low-to-intermediate (2.5%-7.5%) 10-year predicted risk of ASCVD. Methods and Results: We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of testing for a 27-single-nucleotide polymorphism cGRS comparing 4 test/treat strategies: Treat all, treat none, test/treat if cGRS is high, and test/treat if cGRS is intermediate or high. We tested a set of clinical scenarios of men and women, aged 45 to 65 years, with 10-year ASCVD risks between 2.5% and 7.5%. Our primary outcome measure was cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained. Under base case assumptions for statin disutility and cost, the preferred strategy is to treat all patients with ASCVD risk >2.5% without cGRS testing. For certain clinical scenarios, such as a 57-year-old man with a 10-year ASCVD risk of 7.5%, cGRS testing can be cost-effective under a limited set of assumptions; for example, when statins cost $15 per month and statin disutility is 0.013 (ie, willing to trade 3 months of life in perfect health to avoid 20 years of statin therapy), the preferred strategy (using a willingness-to-pay threshold of$50 000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained) is to test and treat if cGRS is intermediate or high. Overall, the results were not sensitive to assumptions about statin efficacy and harms. Conclusions: Testing for a 27-single-nucleotide polymorphism cGRS is generally not a cost-effective approach for targeting statin therapy in the primary prevention of ASCVD for low- to intermediate-risk patients

Testing and extending strategies for identifying genetic disease–related encounters in pediatric patients

Purpose: To better understand health care utilization and develop decision support tools, methods for identifying patients with suspected genetic diseases (GDs) are needed. Previous studies had identified inpatient-relevant International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes that were possibly, probably, or definitely indicative of GDs. We assessed whether these codes identified GD-related inpatient, outpatient, and emergency department encounters among pediatric patients with suspected GDs from a previous study (the North Carolina Clinical Genomic Evaluation by Next-Generation Exome Sequencing [NCGENES] study). Methods: Using the electronic medical records of 140 pediatric patients from the NCGENES study, we characterized the presence of ICD codes representing possible, probable, or definite GD-related diagnoses across encounter types. In addition, we examined codes from encounters for which initially no GD-related codes had been found and determined whether these codes were indicative of a GD. Results: Among NCGENES patients with visits between 2014 and 2017, 92% of inpatient, 75% of emergency department, and 63% of outpatient encounters included ≥1 GD-related code. Encounters with highly specific (ie, definite) GD codes had fewer low-specificity GD codes than encounters with only low-specificity GD codes. We identified an additional 32 ICD-9 and 56 ICD-10 codes possibly indicative of a GD. Conclusion: Code-based strategies can be refined to assess health care utilization among pediatric patients and may contribute to a systematic approach to identify patients with suspected GDs