A generative approach to frame-level multi-competitor races

Multi-competitor races often feature complicated within-race strategies that are difficult to capture when training data on race outcome level data. Further, models which do not account for such strategic effects may suffer from confounded inferences and predictions. In this work we develop a general generative model for multi-competitor races which allows analysts to explicitly model certain strategic effects such as changing lanes or drafting and separate these impacts from competitor ability. The generative model allows one to simulate full races from any real or created starting position which opens new avenues for attributing value to within-race actions and to perform counter-factual analyses. This methodology is sufficiently general to apply to any track based multi-competitor races where both tracking data is available and competitor movement is well described by simultaneous forward and lateral movements. We apply this methodology to one-mile horse races using data provided by the New York Racing Association (NYRA) and the New York Thoroughbred Horsemen's Association (NYTHA) for the Big Data Derby 2022 Kaggle Competition. This data features granular tracking data for all horses at the frame-level (occurring at approximately 4hz). We demonstrate how this model can yield new inferences, such as the estimation of horse-specific speed profiles which vary over phases of the race, and examples of posterior predictive counterfactual simulations to answer questions of interest such as starting lane impacts on race outcomes.Comment: 18 page, 9 Figures, 2 Table

Lung clearance index during hospital admission in school-age children with cystic fibrosis

AbstractBackgroundThere is currently limited information regarding lung clearance index (LCI) and its response to treatment of pulmonary exacerbations in CF. We aimed to examine the utility of LCI for assessing short term clinical response to IV antibiotic therapy in school-age children with CF.MethodsSubjects experiencing exacerbations and hospitalised for IV antibiotics performed both multiple breath nitrogen washout (MBNW) and spirometry on admission to hospital and prior to discharge.Results27 patients (aged 6–20years) had paired data for MBNW and spirometry. Mean LCI reduced from 12.18 to 11.65 (4.4%) by time of discharge and FEV1 z-score improved from −3.05 to −2.86 (6.2%). Overall, LCI improved in n=15 (55%) patients compared with n=18 (67%) where FEV1 improved.ConclusionsIn summary, these findings do not support the use of LCI (or indeed, FEV1) to gauge the short term clinical response to IV antibiotic therapy in school-age children with cystic fibrosis

A Phase 1/2A trial of idroxioleic acid: first-in-class sphingolipid regulator and glioma cell autophagy inducer with antitumor activity in refractory glioma

Cancer therapy; Phase I trialsTeràpia del càncer; Assajos de fase ITerapia del cáncer; Ensayos de fase IBackground The first-in-class brain-penetrating synthetic hydroxylated lipid idroxioleic acid (2-OHOA; sodium 2-hydroxyoleate), activates sphingomyelin synthase expression and regulates membrane-lipid composition and mitochondrial energy production, inducing cancer cell autophagy. We report the findings of a multicentric first-in-human Phase 1/2A trial (NCT01792310) of 2-OHOA, identifying the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) and assessing safety and preliminary efficacy. Methods We performed an open-label, non-randomised trial to evaluate the safety, tolerability, pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics and anti-tumour activity of daily oral treatment with 2-OHOA monotherapy (BID/TID) in 54 patients with glioma and other advanced solid tumours. A dose-escalation phase using a standard 3 + 3 design was performed to determine safety and tolerability. This was followed by two expansion cohorts at the MTD to determine the recommended Phase-2 dose (RP2D). Results In total, 32 recurrent patients were enrolled in the dose-escalation phase (500–16,000 mg/daily). 2-OHOA was rapidly absorbed with dose-proportional exposure. Treatment was well-tolerated overall, with reversible grade 1–2 nausea, vomiting, and diarrhoea as the most common treatment-related adverse events (AEs). Four patients had gastrointestinal dose-limiting toxicities (DLTs) of nausea, vomiting, diarrhoea (three patients at 16,000 mg and one patient at 12,000 mg), establishing an RP2D at 12,000 mg/daily. Potential activity was seen in patients with recurrent high-grade gliomas (HGG). Of the 21 patients with HGG treated across the dose escalation and expansion, 5 (24%) had the clinical benefit (RANO CR, PR and SD >6 cycles) with one exceptional response lasting >2.5 years. Conclusions 2-OHOA demonstrated a good safety profile and encouraging activity in this difficult-to-treat malignant brain-tumour patient population, placing it as an ideal potential candidate for the treatment of glioma and other solid tumour malignancies. Clinical trial registration EudraCT registration number: 2012-001527-13; Clinicaltrials.gov registration number: NCT01792310.This study was supported in part by Laminar Pharmaceuticals. Financial support was also provided by the Govern de les Illes Balears i del Fons Social Europeu (ES01/TCAI/53_2016, ES01/TCAI/21_2017, ES01/TCAI/24_2018 and PROCOE/5/2017), the European Commission (H2020 Framework Programmes Project CLINGLIO 755179), Cancer Research UK (C9380/A25138) and the Experimental Cancer Medicine Centre Network (C9380/A25169). VL was supported by a Torres-Quevedo Research contract from the Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (PTQ-17-09056), co-funded by the FSE

Long-term expiratory airflow of infants born moderate-late preterm:A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Moderate-late preterm (MLP; 32 to <37 weeks’ gestation) birth is associated with reduced expiratory airflow during child, adolescent and adult years. However, some studies have reported only minimal airflow limitation and hence it is unclear if clinical assessment in later life is warranted. Our aim was to compare maximal expiratory airflow in children and adults born MLP with term-born controls, and with expected norms. Methods: We systematically reviewed studies reporting z-scores for spirometric indices (forced expired volume in 1 second [FEV1], forced vital capacity [FVC], FEV1/FVC ratio and forced expiratory flow at 25-75% of FVC [FEF25-75%]) from participants born MLP aged five years or older, with or without a term-born control group from 4 databases (MEDLINE, CINAHL, Embase, Emcare). Publications were searched for between the 22nd of September 2021 to the 29th of September 2021. A meta-analysis of eligible studies was conducted using a random effects model. The study protocol was published in PROSPERO (CRD #42021281518). Findings: We screened 4970 articles and identified 18 relevant studies, 15 of which were eligible for meta-analysis (8 with term-born controls and 7 without). Compared with controls, MLP participants had lower z-scores (mean difference [95% confidence interval] I2) for FEV1: -0.22 [-0.35, -0.09] 49.3%, FVC: -0.23 [-0.4, -0.06] 71.8%, FEV1/FVC: -0.11 [-0.20 to -0.03] 9.3% and FEF25-75%: -0.27 [-0.41 to -0.12] 21.9%. Participants born MLP also had lower z-scores, on average, when compared with a z-score of 0 (mean [95% CI] I2) for FEV1: -0.26 [-0.40 to -0.11] 85.2%, FVC: -0.18 [-0.34 to -0.02] 88.3%, FEV1/FVC: -0.24 [-0.43 to -0.05] 90.5% and FEF25-75%: -0.33 [-0.54 to -0.20] 94.7%. Interpretation: Those born MLP had worse expiratory airflows than those born at term, and compared with norms, although reductions were modest. Clinicians should be aware that children and adults born MLP may be at higher risk of obstructive lung disease compared with term-born peers. Funding: This work is supported by grants from the National Health and Medical Research Council (Centre of Research Excellence #1153176, Project grant #1161304); Medical Research Future Fund (Career Development Fellowship to J.L.Y Cheong #1141354) and from the Victorian Government's Operational Infrastructure Support Programme. C. Du Berry's PhD candidature is supported by the Melbourne Research Scholarship and the Centre of Research Excellence in Newborn Medicine

T. brucei cathepsin-L increases arrhythmogenic sarcoplasmic reticulum-mediated calcium release in rat cardiomyocytes

Aims: African trypanosomiasis, caused by Trypanosoma brucei species, leads to both neurological and cardiac dysfunction and can be fatal if untreated. While the neurological-related pathogenesis is well studied, the cardiac pathogenesis remains unknown. The current study exposed isolated ventricular cardiomyocytes and adult rat hearts to T. brucei to test whether trypanosomes can alter cardiac function independent of a systemic inflammatory/immune response. Methods and results: Using confocal imaging, T. brucei and T. brucei culture media (supernatant) caused an increased frequency of arrhythmogenic spontaneous diastolic sarcoplasmic reticulum (SR)-mediated Ca2+ release (Ca2+ waves) in isolated adult rat ventricular cardiomyocytes. Studies utilising inhibitors, recombinant protein and RNAi all demonstrated that this altered SR function was due to T. brucei cathepsin-L (TbCatL). Separate experiments revealed that TbCatL induced a 10–15% increase of SERCA activity but reduced SR Ca2+ content, suggesting a concomitant increased SR-mediated Ca2+ leak. This conclusion was supported by data demonstrating that TbCatL increased Ca2+ wave frequency. These effects were abolished by autocamtide-2-related inhibitory peptide, highlighting a role for CaMKII in the TbCatL action on SR function. Isolated Langendorff perfused whole heart experiments confirmed that supernatant caused an increased number of arrhythmic events. Conclusion: These data demonstrate for the first time that African trypanosomes alter cardiac function independent of a systemic immune response, via a mechanism involving extracellular cathepsin-L-mediated changes in SR function

Afatinib and radiotherapy, with or without temozolomide, in patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma: results of a phase I trial.

Funder: Boehringer Ingelheim; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100001003BACKGROUND: Glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) is the most common primary malignant brain tumor in adults. Amplification or overexpression of the epidermal growth factor receptor gene, part of the ErbB family, occur in approximately 40% and 60% of patients with GBM, respectively. We present data from a dose-finding study of the ErbB inhibitor afatinib in combination with radiotherapy (RT), with or without temozolomide (TMZ), in patients with GBM. METHODS: This was a phase I, open-label, 3 + 3 dose-escalation trial in patients with newly-diagnosed, histologically-confirmed grade 4 malignant glioma and proven O6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase gene promoter methylation status. The primary endpoint was the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) of continuous daily afatinib when given in combination with RT, with (regimen M) or without (regimen U) concomitant TMZ treatment. RESULTS: Fifty-five patients were enrolled; 36 received ≥ 1 dose of trial medication (regimen M, n = 20, regimen U, n = 16). Afatinib was discontinued by all patients during the study. Reasons for afatinib discontinuation (regimen M/U) included disease progression (45%/50%), dose-limiting toxicity (10%/0%), and other adverse events (AEs; 35%/38%). The most frequently reported AEs with either regimen were diarrhea and rash, with no new safety signals identified. The MTD was determined as afatinib 30 mg in combination with daily TMZ and RT, and afatinib 40 mg in combination with RT alone. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified the MTD for afatinib in combination with RT, with and without TMZ, in patients with GBM. Further studies of afatinib in patients with GBM are warranted and should be based on appropriate biomarker-based preselection. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT00977431 (first posted September 15, 2009)

Assisted reproductive technologies are associated with limited epigenetic variation at birth that largely resolves by adulthood

More than 7 million individuals have been conceived by Assisted Reproductive Technologies (ART) and there is clear evidence that ART is associated with a range of adverse early life outcomes, including rare imprinting disorders. The periconception period and early embryogenesis are associated with widespread epigenetic remodeling, which can be influenced by ART, with effects on the developmental trajectory in utero, and potentially on health throughout life. Here we profile genome-wide DNA methylation in blood collected in the newborn period and in adulthood (age 22-35 years) from a unique longitudinal cohort of ART-conceived individuals, previously shown to have no differences in health outcomes in early adulthood compared with non-ART-conceived individuals. We show evidence for specific ART-associated variation in methylation around birth, most of which occurred independently of embryo culturing. Importantly, ART-associated epigenetic variation at birth largely resolves by adulthood with no direct evidence that it impacts on development and health

Disrupted Thalamus White Matter Anatomy and Posterior Default Mode Network Effective Connectivity in Amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and its prodromal state amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI) are characterized by widespread abnormalities in inter-areal white matter fiber pathways and parallel disruption of default mode network (DMN) resting state functional and effective connectivity. In healthy subjects, DMN and task positive network interaction are modulated by the thalamus suggesting that abnormal task-based DMN deactivation in aMCI may be a consequence of impaired thalamo-cortical white matter circuitry. Thus, this article uses a multimodal approach to assess white matter integrity between thalamus and DMN components and associated effective connectivity in healthy controls (HCs) relative to aMCI patients. Twenty-six HC and 20 older adults with aMCI underwent structural, functional and diffusion MRI scanning using the high angular resolution diffusion-weighted acquisition protocol. The DMN of each subject was identified using independent component analysis (ICA) and resting state effective connectivity was calculated between thalamus and DMN nodes. White matter integrity changes between thalamus and DMN were investigated with constrained spherical deconvolution (CSD) tractography. Significant structural deficits in thalamic white matter projection fibers to posterior DMN components posterior cingulate cortex (PCC) and lateral inferior parietal lobe (IPL) were identified together with significantly reduced effective connectivity from left thalamus to left IPL. Crucially, impaired thalamo-cortical white matter circuitry correlated with memory performance. Disrupted thalamo-cortical structure was accompanied by significant reductions in IPL and PCC cortico-cortical effective connectivity. No structural deficits were found between DMN nodes. Abnormal posterior DMN activity may be driven by changes in thalamic white matter connectivity; a view supported by the close anatomical and functional association of thalamic nuclei effected by AD pathology and the posterior DMN nodes. We conclude that dysfunctional posterior DMN activity in aMCI is consistent with disrupted cortico-thalamo-cortical processing and thalamic-based dissemination of hippocampal disease agents to cortical hubs