Climate Change and Tourism Features in the Caribbean

The tourist industry is widely recognised as the key engine of growth in the Caribbean, representing a significant source of foreign exchange earnings and employment. The present study provides an assessment of how climate change could likely impact on regional tourism features. The analysis is undertaken by comparing historical tourism climatic indices to those obtained under the various climate change scenarios. The results suggest that the biggest losers, in terms of deteriorations in their climatic features, are likely to be the Caribbean, Central America and South America.Tourism climate index; Climate Change; Caribbean

Credit Booms and Busts in the Caribbean

Since 1970, private sector credit has grown quite rapidly in the Caribbean. More recently, between 2004 and 2006, total real credit in the Caribbean has risen by a cumulative 55.7 percent, or approximately 19 percent per annum. In some countries, the rate of expansion has even been stronger, which is of concern given the likely negative macroeconomic consequences of credit booms. This paper attempts to identify the factors that have led to credit booms and conversely busts in the Caribbean, employing annual data for 13 Caribbean countries covering the period 1970 to 2006 in the analysis. This study employs a panel count data regression approach. Three key groups of variables are considered: (1) macroeconomic developments; (2) macroeconomic policy, and (3) external shocks. The reported results suggest that macroeconomic developments were the main determinants of credit booms in the Caribbean, with low inflation, high growth in GDP per capita, investment booms as well as less developed financial systems leading to the emergence of credit booms and conversely for busts.Credit Booms, Credit Busts, Caribbean, Count Data Model

Climate Change and Tourism Features in the Caribbean

The tourist industry is widely recognised as the key engine of growth in the Caribbean, representing a significant source of foreign exchange earnings and employment. The present study provides an assessment of how climate change could likely impact on regional tourism features. The analysis is undertaken by comparing historical tourism climatic indices to those obtained under the various climate change scenarios. The results suggest that the biggest losers, in terms of deteriorations in their climatic features, are likely to be the Caribbean, Central America and South America

Credit Booms and Busts in the Caribbean

Since 1970, private sector credit has grown quite rapidly in the Caribbean. More recently, between 2004 and 2006, total real credit in the Caribbean has risen by a cumulative 55.7 percent, or approximately 19 percent per annum. In some countries, the rate of expansion has even been stronger, which is of concern given the likely negative macroeconomic consequences of credit booms. This paper attempts to identify the factors that have led to credit booms and conversely busts in the Caribbean, employing annual data for 13 Caribbean countries covering the period 1970 to 2006 in the analysis. This study employs a panel count data regression approach. Three key groups of variables are considered: (1) macroeconomic developments; (2) macroeconomic policy, and (3) external shocks. The reported results suggest that macroeconomic developments were the main determinants of credit booms in the Caribbean, with low inflation, high growth in GDP per capita, investment booms as well as less developed financial systems leading to the emergence of credit booms and conversely for busts

Against the Compositional View of Facts

It is commonly assumed that facts would be complex entities made out of particulars and universals. This thesis, which I call Compositionalism, holds that parthood may be construed broadly enough so that the relation that holds between a fact and the entities it ‘ties’ together counts as a kind of parthood. I argue firstly that Compositionalism is incompatible with the possibility of certain kinds of fact and universal, and, secondly, that such facts and universals are possible. I conclude that Compositionalism is false. What all these kinds of fact and universal have in common is a violation of supplementation principles governing any relation that may be intelligibly regarded as a kind of parthood. Although my arguments apply to Compositionalism generally, I focus on recent work by David Armstrong, who is a prominent and explicit Compositionalist

Middle Palaeolithic occupation of the southern North Sea Basin: evidence from the Sandscaping sediments emplaced on the beach between Bacton and Walcott, Norfolk, UK

During the summer of 2019, the Bacton to Walcott Coastal Management Scheme involved the emplacement on to the foreshore of 1.8 million cubic metres of sand and gravel dredged from the submerged sediments of the Palaeo-Yare in the southern North Sea 11 km off Great Yarmouth. During the following 2-year period, an active group of collectors identified Palaeolithic artefacts eroding from these sediments, including Levallois cores and flakes, and cordiform handaxes. In this paper, we present an analysis of the lithic artefacts, and consider the relationships between the different elements of the assemblage. We discuss its significance in the context of the Middle Palaeolithic record of northwest Europe and the light it shines on the human occupation of the submerged landscape of the southern North Sea during the later Middle Pleistocene. Interrogation of beach survey data shows the reworking of these sediments to the southeast towards Happisburgh where archaeologically significant exposures of the Cromer Forest-bed Formation are located. The implications of the introduction of a Middle Palaeolithic assemblage to this stretch of the North Norfolk Coast are considered, highlighting the importance of continuing dialogue between researchers, local authorities and local communities for capturing information and monitoring this critical Palaeolithic resource

The new resilience of emerging and developing countries: systemic interlocking, currency swaps and geoeconomics

The vulnerability/resilience nexus that defined the interaction between advanced and developing economies in the post-WWII era is undergoing a fundamental transformation. Yet, most of the debate in the current literature is focusing on the structural constraints faced by the Emerging and Developing Countries (EDCs) and the lack of changes in the formal structures of global economic governance. This paper challenges this literature and its conclusions by focusing on the new conditions of systemic interlocking between advanced and emerging economies, and by analysing how large EDCs have built and are strengthening their economic resilience. We find that a significant redistribution of ‘policy space’ between advanced and emerging economies have taken place in the global economy. We also find that a number of seemingly technical currency swap agreements among EDCs have set in motion changes in the very structure of global trade and finance. These developments do not signify the end of EDCs’ vulnerability towards advanced economies. They signify however that the economic and geoeconomic implications of this vulnerability have changed in ways that constrain the options available to advanced economies and pose new challenges for the post-WWII economic order

Building the resilience of small states : a revised framework

This study presents a detailed literature review on economic vulnerability and resilience with a focus on small states. It also proposes a revised vulnerability/resilience framework, building on the work of Lino Briguglio et al. (2009), who defined vulnerability in terms of inherent features which render countries exposed to external shocks, and resilience in terms of policy-induced measures that enable countries to minimise or withstand the harmful effect of such shocks. The juxtaposition of vulnerability and resilience, as measured by the vulnerability and resilience indices, would indicate the overall risk of an economy being harmed by external shocks. The major implication of the vulnerability/ resilience framework is that small states can succeed economically in spite of their economic vulnerability if they adopt policies conducive to good economic, social, political and environmental governance.peer-reviewe