Early warning systems

Banks and banking ; Bank supervision ; Problem banks

Is banking on the brink? another look

Banks and banking ; Risk

A note of caution on early bank closure

Bank failures ; Bank capital ; Problem banks

Have large banks become riskier? recent evidence from option markets

Options (Finance) ; Risk ; Banks and banking

Interstate banking and risk

Interstate banking ; Risk ; Banks and banking - West ; Federal Reserve District, 12th

Bank capital standards for foreign exchange and other market risks

The Basle Committee on Banking Supervision has proposed methods for incorporating consideration of market risks--exchange rate, interest rate, and equity price risks--into risk-based capital standards for banks. This paper shows that the separate and seemingly different proposed approaches to the three sources of risk are consistent with one another, reflecting a single unifying theme. That theme is the measurement of risk through a weighting of two different measures of portfolio size, the gross position and the net position. A simple theoretical model demonstrates that such an approach can be viewed as a simple (specifically, an affine) approximation to a portfolio variance calculation based on the full variance-covariance matrix of market returns, and thus provides a reasonable basis for a practical approach to capital standards. An empirical test of one part of the framework, the proposal for exchange rate risk, shows that the approximation may be very accurate: the proposed Basle approach captures over 95 percent of the variation in foreign exchange risk across a sample of banks from the Twelfth Federal Reserve District.Bank capital ; Risk ; Foreign exchange

The persistence of bank profits: what the stock market implies

This paper examines the speed with which abnormal economic profits vanish in the U.S. banking industry. A model is developed to infer expected speeds of profit adjustment from stock market and financial accounting data, deriving the rate of adjustment that is most consistent with observed cross-sectional relationships between bank stock prices and profitability. The model allows for the possibility that reported accounting income may be a biased and noisy signal of economic profit. Estimation is performed using generalized nonlinear least squares on a pooled series of cross sections. The results indicate that the expected rate of adjustment tends to be significantly greater than zero, although smaller than adjustment speeds found in studies of nonbank firms. The estimated speed of adjustment for negative profits is greater than for positive profits; for banks with high profit rates, the adjustment speed is near zero, implying that supernormal profits are very long-lived.Bank profits ; Bank stocks ; Banks and banking - Accounting ; Stock market

Competitive forces and profit persistence in banking

Bank competition ; Bank stocks ; Bank profits

Risk-adjusted deposit insurance premiums

Deposit insurance ; Risk

Market risk and bank capital: part 2

Risk ; Bank capital ; Interest rates ; Stock - Prices ; Foreign exchange rates