Trends in socioeconomic disparities in a rapid under-five mortality transition: a longitudinal study in United Republic of Tanzania

Abstract: Objective To explore trends in socioeconomic disparities and under-five mortality rates in rural parts of United Republic of Tanzania between 2000 and 2011. Methods: We used longitudinal data on births, deaths, migrations, maternal educational attainment and household characteristics from the Ifakara and Rufiji health and demographic surveillance systems. We estimated hazard ratios (HR) for associations between mortality and maternal educational attainment or relative household wealth, using Cox hazard regression models. Findings: The under-five mortality rate declined in Ifakara from 132.7 deaths per 1000 live births (95% confidence interval, CI: 119.3–147.4) in 2000 to 66.2 (95%CI: 59.0–74.3) in 2011 and in Rufiji from 118.4 deaths per 1000 live births (95% CI: 107.1– 130.7) in 2000 to 76.2 (95% CI: 66.7–86.9) in 2011. Combining both sites, in 2000– 2001, the risk of dying for children of uneducated mothers was 1.44 (95% CI: 1.08– 1.92) higher than for children of mothers who had received education beyond primary school. In 2010–2011, the HR was 1.18 (95% CI: 0.90–1.55). In contrast mortality disparities between richest and poorest quintiles worsened in Rufiji, from 1.20 (95% CI: 0.99–1.47) in 2000–2001 to 1.48 (95% CI: 1.15–1.89) in 2010–2011, while in Ifakara, disparities narrowed from 1.30 (95% CI: 1.09–1.55) to 1.15 (95% CI: 0.95–1.39) in the same period. Conclusion: While childhood survival has improved, mortality disparities still persist, suggesting a need for policies and programmes that both reduce child mortality and address socioeconomic disparities

Does Proximity to Health Facilities Improve Child Survival? New Evidence from a Longitudinal Study in Rural Tanzania

Distance to health facilities is often cited as a major barrier limiting access to care in sub-Saharan and other developing countries. There are however limited data on the causal effects of distance to facilities on child survival. Existing estimates may be biased because 1) most existing data are on distance to health care facilities are cross-sectional, and 2) existing analyses do not account for the endogeneity of residential choices and health services location. This paper uses unique longitudinal data collected in a rural district of Tanzania to test whether enhanced proximity to health services arising from investment in dispensaries contributed to the rapid decline in underfive mortality recently observed in Tanzania. Data on births, deaths, household socioeconomic characteristics and migrations have been recorded every 120 days since 1999 (n≈85,000). Geographic data on the precise location of households and health facilities have also been collected over time. We use multivariate analysis 1) to measure the causal effects of distance to health facilities on child survival and 2) to test for possible interactions between distance to health facilities and socioeconomic characteristics of households (e.g., educational attainment, wealth). Initial results indicate that, from 2000 to 2010, child mortality declined close to 40% (from 110 to 70 per 1000). The distance to the closest health facility remained a strong determinant of child survival, even after adjusting for endogeneity biases. The development of community-based primary health care in rural communities by posting community health assistants, and conducting regular household visits, can improve health outcomes. It can also increase equity by offsetting the detrimental effects of low maternal education, householdpoverty and distance to health facilities

High burden of tuberculosis infection and disease among people receiving medication-assisted treatment for substance use disorder in Tanzania

OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence of tuberculosis (TB) disease and infection as well as incident TB disease among people who use drugs (PWUD) attending Medication Assisted Treatment (MAT) clinics in Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, a total of 901 consenting participants were enrolled from November 2016 to February 2017 and a structured questionnaire administered to them through the open data kit application on android tablets. Twenty-two months later, we revisited the MAT clinics and reviewed 823 of the 901 enrolled participant's medical records in search for documentation on TB disease diagnosis and treatment. Medical records reviewed included those of participants whom at enrolment were asymptomatic, not on TB disease treatment, not on TB preventive therapy and those who had a documented tuberculin skin test (TST) result. RESULTS: Of the 823 medical records reviewed 22 months after enrolment, 42 had documentation of being diagnosed with TB disease and initiated on TB treatment. This is equivalent to a TB disease incidence rate of 2,925.2 patients per 100,000 person years with a total follow up time of 1,440 person-years. At enrolment the prevalence of TB disease and TB infection was 2.6% and 54% respectively and the HIV prevalence was 44% and 16% among females and males respectively. CONCLUSION: PWUD attending MAT clinics bear an extremely high burden of TB and HIV and are known to have driven TB epidemics in a number of countries. Our reported TB disease incidence is 12 times that of the general Tanzanian incidence of 237 per 100,000 further emphasizing that this group should be prioritized for TB screening, testing and treatment. Gender specific approaches should also be developed as female PWUDs are markedly more affected with HIV and TB disease than male PWUDs

Improving quality of medical certification of causes of death in health facilities in Tanzania 2014-2019

BACKGROUND: Monitoring medically certified causes of death is essential to shape national health policies, track progress to Sustainable Development Goals, and gauge responses to epidemic and pandemic disease. The combination of electronic health information systems with new methods for data quality monitoring can facilitate quality assessments and help target quality improvement. Since 2015, Tanzania has been upgrading its Civil Registration and Vital Statistics system including efforts to improve the availability and quality of mortality data. METHODS: We used a computer application (ANACONDA v4.01) to assess the quality of medical certification of cause of death (MCCD) and ICD-10 coding for the underlying cause of death for 155,461 deaths from health facilities from 2014 to 2018. From 2018 to 2019, we continued quality analysis for 2690 deaths in one large administrative region 9 months before, and 9 months following MCCD quality improvement interventions. Interventions addressed governance, training, process, and practice. We assessed changes in the levels, distributions, and nature of unusable and insufficiently specified codes, and how these influenced estimates of the leading causes of death. RESULTS: 9.7% of expected annual deaths in Tanzania obtained a medically certified cause of death. Of these, 52% of MCCD ICD-10 codes were usable for health policy and planning, with no significant improvement over 5 years. Of certified deaths, 25% had unusable codes, 17% had insufficiently specified codes, and 6% were undetermined causes. Comparing the before and after intervention periods in one Region, codes usable for public health policy purposes improved from 48 to 65% within 1 year and the resulting distortions in the top twenty cause-specific mortality fractions due to unusable causes reduced from 27.4 to 13.5%. CONCLUSION: Data from less than 5% of annual deaths in Tanzania are usable for informing policy. For deaths with medical certification, errors were prevalent in almost half. This constrains capacity to monitor the 15 SDG indicators that require cause-specific mortality. Sustainable quality assurance mechanisms and interventions can result in rapid improvements in the quality of medically certified causes of death. ANACONDA provides an effective means for evaluation of such changes and helps target interventions to remaining weaknesses

Data resource profile: network for analysing longitudinal population-based HIV/AIDS data on Africa (ALPHA Network)

The Network for Analysing Longitudinal Population-based HIV/AIDS data on Africa (ALPHA Network, http://alpha.lshtm.ac.uk/) brings together ten population-based HIV surveillance sites in eastern and southern Africa, and is coordinated by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM). It was established in 2005 and aims to (i) broaden the evidence base on HIV epidemiology for informing policy, (ii) strengthen the analytical capacity for HIV research, and (iii) foster collaboration between network members. All study sites, some starting in the late 1980s and early 1990s, conduct demographic surveillance in populations that range from approximately 20 to 220 thousand individuals. In addition, they conduct population-based surveys with HIV testing, and verbal autopsy interviews with relatives of deceased residents. ALPHA Network datasets have been used for studying HIV incidence, sexual behaviour and the effects of HIV on mortality, fertility, and household composition. One of the network’s substantive focus areas is the monitoring of AIDS mortality and HIV services coverage in the era of antiretroviral therapy. Service use data are retrospectively recorded in interviews and supplemented by information from record linkage with medical facilities in the surveillance areas. Data access is at the discretion of each of the participating sites, but can be coordinated by the network

A universal testing and treatment intervention to improve HIV control: One-year results from intervention communities in Zambia in the HPTN 071 (PopART) cluster-randomised trial

The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) 90-90-90 targets require that, by 2020, 90% of those living with HIV know their status, 90% of known HIV-positive individuals receive sustained antiretroviral therapy (ART), and 90% of individuals on ART have durable viral suppression. The HPTN 071 (PopART) trial is measuring the impact of a universal testing and treatment intervention on population-level HIV incidence in 21 urban communities in Zambia and South Africa. We report observational data from four communities in Zambia to assess progress towards the UNAIDS targets after 1 y of the PopART intervention

State of the climate in 2013

In 2013, the vast majority of the monitored climate variables reported here maintained trends established in recent decades. ENSO was in a neutral state during the entire year, remaining mostly on the cool side of neutral with modest impacts on regional weather patterns around the world. This follows several years dominated by the effects of either La Niña or El Niño events. According to several independent analyses, 2013 was again among the 10 warmest years on record at the global scale, both at the Earths surface and through the troposphere. Some regions in the Southern Hemisphere had record or near-record high temperatures for the year. Australia observed its hottest year on record, while Argentina and New Zealand reported their second and third hottest years, respectively. In Antarctica, Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station reported its highest annual temperature since records began in 1957. At the opposite pole, the Arctic observed its seventh warmest year since records began in the early 20th century. At 20-m depth, record high temperatures were measured at some permafrost stations on the North Slope of Alaska and in the Brooks Range. In the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, anomalous meridional atmospheric circulation occurred throughout much of the year, leading to marked regional extremes of both temperature and precipitation. Cold temperature anomalies during winter across Eurasia were followed by warm spring temperature anomalies, which were linked to a new record low Eurasian snow cover extent in May. Minimum sea ice extent in the Arctic was the sixth lowest since satellite observations began in 1979. Including 2013, all seven lowest extents on record have occurred in the past seven years. Antarctica, on the other hand, had above-average sea ice extent throughout 2013, with 116 days of new daily high extent records, including a new daily maximum sea ice area of 19.57 million km2 reached on 1 October. ENSO-neutral conditions in the eastern central Pacific Ocean and a negative Pacific decadal oscillation pattern in the North Pacific had the largest impacts on the global sea surface temperature in 2013. The North Pacific reached a historic high temperature in 2013 and on balance the globally-averaged sea surface temperature was among the 10 highest on record. Overall, the salt content in nearsurface ocean waters increased while in intermediate waters it decreased. Global mean sea level continued to rise during 2013, on pace with a trend of 3.2 mm yr-1 over the past two decades. A portion of this trend (0.5 mm yr-1) has been attributed to natural variability associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation as well as to ongoing contributions from the melting of glaciers and ice sheets and ocean warming. Global tropical cyclone frequency during 2013 was slightly above average with a total of 94 storms, although the North Atlantic Basin had its quietest hurricane season since 1994. In the Western North Pacific Basin, Super Typhoon Haiyan, the deadliest tropical cyclone of 2013, had 1-minute sustained winds estimated to be 170 kt (87.5 m s-1) on 7 November, the highest wind speed ever assigned to a tropical cyclone. High storm surge was also associated with Haiyan as it made landfall over the central Philippines, an area where sea level is currently at historic highs, increasing by 200 mm since 1970. In the atmosphere, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide all continued to increase in 2013. As in previous years, each of these major greenhouse gases once again reached historic high concentrations. In the Arctic, carbon dioxide and methane increased at the same rate as the global increase. These increases are likely due to export from lower latitudes rather than a consequence of increases in Arctic sources, such as thawing permafrost. At Mauna Loa, Hawaii, for the first time since measurements began in 1958, the daily average mixing ratio of carbon dioxide exceeded 400 ppm on 9 May. The state of these variables, along with dozens of others, and the 2013 climate conditions of regions around the world are discussed in further detail in this 24th edition of the State of the Climate series. © 2014, American Meteorological Society. All rights reserved

The contribution of reduction in malaria as a cause of rapid decline of under-five mortality : evidence from the Rufiji Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) in rural Tanzania

Under-five mortality has been declining rapidly in a number of sub-Saharan African settings. Malaria-related mortality is known to be a major component of childhood causes of death and malaria remains a major focus of health interventions. The paper explored the contribution of malaria relative to other specific causes of under-five deaths to these trends.; This paper uses longitudinal demographic surveillance data to examine trends and causes of death of under-five mortality in Rufiji, whose population has been followed for over nine years (1999-2007). Causes of death, determined by the verbal autopsy technique, are analysed with Arriaga's decomposition method to assess the contribution of declining malaria-related mortality relative to other causes of death as explaining a rapid decline in overall childhood mortality.; Over the 1999-2007 period, under-five mortality rate in Rufiji declined by 54.3%, from 33.3 to 15.2 per 1,000 person-years. If this trend is sustained, Rufiji will be a locality that achieves MDG4 target. Although hypotrophy at birth remained the leading cause of death for neonates, malaria remains as the leading cause of death for post-neonates followed by pneumonia. However, declines in malaria death rates accounted for 49.9% of the observed under-five mortality decline while all perinatal causes accounted for only 19.9%.; To achieve MDG 4 in malaria endemic settings, health programmes should continue efforts to reduce malaria mortality and more efforts are also needed to improve newborn survival