Imperfection Information, Optimal Monetary Policy and Informational Consistency

This paper examines the implications of imperfect information (II) for optimal monetary policy with a consistent set of informational assumptions for the modeller and the private sector an assumption we term the informational consistency. We use an estimated simple NK model from Levine et al. (2012), where the assumption of symmetric II significantly improves the fit of the model to US data to assess the welfare costs of II under commitment, discretion and simple Taylor-type rules. Our main results are: first, common to all information sets we find significant welfare gains from commitment only with a zero-lower bound constraint on the interest rate. Second, optimized rules take the form of a price level rule, or something very close across all information cases. Third, the combination of limited information and a lack of commitment can be particularly serious for welfare. At the same time we find that II with lags introduces a ‘tying ones hands’ effect on the policymaker that may improve welfare under discretion. Finally, the impulse response functions under our most extreme imperfect information assumption (output and inflation observed with a two-quarter delay) exhibit hump-shaped behaviour and the fiscal multiplier is significantly enhanced in this case

Apollo experience report: Certification test program

A review of the Apollo spacecraft certification (qualification) test program is presented. The approach to devising the spectrum of dynamic and climatic environments, the formulation of test durations, and the relative significance of the formal certification test program compared with development testing and acceptance testing are reviewed. Management controls for the formulation of test requirements, test techniques, data review, and acceptance of test results are considered. Significant experience gained from the Apollo spacecraft certification test program which may be applicable to future manned spacecraft is presented

An empirical analysis of the welfare magnet debate using the NLSY

This paper examines the extent to which differences in welfare generosity across states lead to interstate migration. Using microdata from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth between 1979 and 1992, we employ a quasi-experimental design that utilizes the categorical eligibility of the welfare system. The "treatment" group consists of all those in the survey who appear eligible to participate in Aid to Families with Dependent Children. The "control" group contains those who are poor but ineligible for other reasons. The pattern of cross-state moves among poor single women with children who are likely to be eligible for benefits (treatment-group members) is compared to the pattern among other poor households. We find little evidence indicating that welfare-induced migration is a widespread phenomenon.

The intergenerational correlation in AFDC participation: Welfare trap or poverty trap?

Several recent studies have shown that daughters whose mothers have participated in the welfare program Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC), are themselves more likely to participate in AFDC when they head their own household. Other studies have shown that the earnings of parents and their children are highly correlated across generations. This suggests that any variable correlated with income such as AFDC participation will also be correlated across generations. This paper uses data from the original and youth cohorts of the National Longitudinal Surveys to investigate the question of whether the link in mother-daughter welfare participation is a causal relationship, or whether it can be explained by the expected intergenerational correlation in earnings. Several reduced-form probit equations are estimated, and attention is directed to the potential endogeneity of key explanatory variables. The empirical findings suggest that much of the observed correlation in AFDC participation across generations can be explained by the intergenerational correlation of income and other family characteristics.

Space shuttle: Basic hypersonic force data for Grumman delta wing orbiter configurations ROS-NB1 and ROS-WB1

Hypervelocity wind tunnel tests at Mach 10 of delta wing space shuttle model