Modeling Electoral Coordination: Parties and Legislative Lists in Uruguay

During each electoral period, the strategic interaction between voters and political elites determines the number of viable candidates in a district. In this paper, we implement a hierarchical seemingly unrelated regression model to explain electoral coordination at the district level in Uruguay as a function of district magnitude, previous electoral outcomes and electoral regime. Elections in this country are particularly useful to test for institutional effects on the coordination process due to the large variations in district magnitude, to the simultaneity of presidential and legislative races held under different rules, and to the reforms implemented during the period under consideration. We find that district magnitude and electoral history heuristics have substantial effects on the number of competing and voted-for parties and lists. Our modeling approach uncovers important interaction-effects between the demand and supply side of the political market that were often overlooked in previous research

Bibliography of Research Litera ture on Instant Runoff Voting (IRV)

This bibliography lists a diversity of publications related to Instant Runoff Voting (IRV). This voting method is a particular type of Single Transferable Vote (STV), applied in single-seat elections. It is a sequential elimination voting procedure, and due to the use of ranked-ordered ballots, it belongs to the group of preferential-voting methods. It is also called Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) or Alternative Vote. One set of publications included in this bibliography is concerned with the impact of IRV, or runoff methods in general, on the party system, candidate behavior, voter choice, and minority representation. In particular, some authors compare the complexity of the system, and the incentives for strategic voter choice, and cooperation between candidates, relative to alternative methods. Another set of publications deals with the experience of several countries with the use of IRV –such as Australia, Fiji, and New Guinea, with some scholars focusing specifically on the encouragement of inter-ethnic cooperation and minority inclusion in divided societies, and on the moderation-character of policy outcomes. Finally, an additional group of publications considers the need for electoral reform in the US, and evaluates the adoption and results of the use of IRV in recent elections in the city of San Francisco. The selection criteria for inclusion in this bibliography was being a published book or peer reviewed article, making a significant contribution to the understanding of the voting system, by either studying its properties, its advantages and disadvantages relative to alternative methods, or providing evidence of its performance in real world situations

Measuring the Effects of Voter Confidence on Political Participation: An Application to the 2006 Mexican Election

In this paper we study the causal effect of voter confidence on participation decisions in the 2006 Mexican Election. Previous research has shown that voter confidence was a relevant factor in explaining participation during the years of the PRI hegemony. An open question is whether this relationship is still significant after the democratic transition taking place in the years 1997-2000. Moreover, in the previous literature, this problem was studied in a regression framework. In this article we argue that, since voter confidence and participation decisions are affected by similar covariates, a regression approach may lead to results which are too model dependent, and do not account for the heterogeneity of effects across voters. To solve this problem, we use matching methods, and find that voter confidence has considerable effects on participation decisions, but substantially different in magnitude from those found using the usual regression approach.Caltech/MIT Voting Technology Project; John S. and James L. Knight Foundatio

Election forensics: Using machine learning and synthetic data for possible election anomaly detection

Assuring election integrity is essential for the legitimacy of elected representative democratic government. Until recently, other than in-person election observation, there have been few quantitative methods for determining the integrity of a democratic election. Here we present a machine learning methodology for identifying polling places at risk of election fraud and estimating the extent of potential electoral manipulation, using synthetic training data. We apply this methodology to mesa-level data from Argentina’s 2015 national elections

The Four Faces of Political Participation in Argentina: Using Latent Class Analysis to Study Political Behavior

In this paper we use latent class analysis to identify the four faces of political participation. Previous research has generally focused on conventional forms of political participation (for example, voting), with some research looking as well at unconventional forms of political participation, like protesting. Moreover, most research studies these forms of participation separately. However, citizens actually engage in both conventional and unconventional participation simultaneously, and here we present a methodology that can identify citizens who engage in both, neither, or only one form of participation. Using our approach, we examine a series of hypotheses about how social, political, and economic grievances lead citizens to engage in each face of political participation. We apply this methodology to recent survey data from Argentina, which we argue is an excellent case for studying both forms of participation simultaneously. This application demonstrates the utility of the latent class approach for studying the four faces of political participation

Election forensics: Using machine learning and synthetic data for possible election anomaly detection

Assuring election integrity is essential for the legitimacy of elected representative democratic government. Until recently, other than in-person election observation, there have been few quantitative methods for determining the integrity of a democratic election. Here we present a machine learning methodology for identifying polling places at risk of election fraud and estimating the extent of potential electoral manipulation, using synthetic training data. We apply this methodology to mesa-level data from Argentina’s 2015 national elections

Making Voting Easier: Convenience Voting in the 2008 Presidential Election

In this study we analyze the choice of voting mode in the 2008 presidential election. We use a large-sample survey with national coverage that allows us to overcome limitations of previous studies. Our analysis provides a number of insights into some of the important debates about convenience voting. Among other things, we find little support for the hypothesis that convenience voting methods have partisan implications; although we do find voter attributes that lead to the choice of some particular convenience voting mode. Results like these have important implications for future moves towards convenience voting and the design of new outreach campaigns.Pew Charitable Trust

A New Approach to the Study of Political Participation

This thesis develops and applies a new theoretical and empirical approach to the study of political participation. It starts with a thorough review of existing theories and evidence of the determinants of political participation. The theories discussed in the literature review are subsequently synthesized using a dual-process account of participation decisions. The central premise of the account is that individuals engage in reasonable deliberation regarding the benefits and costs of participating in political activities, but this reasoning is limited by automatic responses to values, social identifications, and habits that predispose the individual toward participation or abstention. The next chapter develops a new statistical procedure for the study of political participation, based on mixture modeling and simultaneous consideration of involvement in multiple political activities that is consistent with the dual-process account of political participation discussed in the previous chapter. In this model the relationship between underlying utilities and participation probabilities is regulated by a parameter that captures individual propensities toward political participation. After that, the statistical method is applied to survey data from the 1990 American Citizen Participation Study (Verba et al., 1995), where it is used to test a series of hypotheses regarding the impact of resources and civic skills on political participation. Finally, the mixture modeling approach is applied to survey data from the 2008 Cooperative Congressional Elections Study (Ansolabehere, 2008), where it is used to measure the impact of perceptions of economic adversity and support for emergency economic policies on political participation

Detecting Voter Fraud in an Electronic Voting Context An Analysis of the Unlimited Reelection Vote in Venezuela

Between December 2007 and February 2009, Venezuelans participated twice in constitutional referenda where the elimination of presidential term limits was one of the most salient proposals. Assuming voter preferences did not change significantly during that period, the ‘repeated’ character of these elections provide us with an excellent opportunity to apply forensic tools designed to detect anomalies and outliers in election returns in elections where electronic voting technologies were used. Similar tools were first applied by Myagkov et al. ([20], [21],[22], [23]) to the study of electoral fraud in Russia and Ukraine, and were effective in the isolation of potential cases of manipulation of electoral returns. The case of Venezuela is different because there exists no widespread agreement about the integrity or otherwise fraudulent nature of national elections, and because it is a nation where electronic voting technologies are used. Unless electoral fraud takes place in exactly the same manner in each election, an analysis of the ‘flow of votes’ between elections can be used to detect suspicious patterns in electoral returns. Although we do not find evidence of pervasive electoral fraud compared, for instance, to the Russian case, our analysis is useful to detect polling places or regions deviating considerably from the more general pattern

Voter Opinions about Election Reform: Do They Support Making Voting More Convenient?

We study public opinions about convenience voting reforms, using a unique state-by-state survey conducted in the 2008 presidential election. Our analysis of the American voting public’s support for potential convenience voting reforms provides a variety of important insights into the potential direction of innovations in the electoral process in the near future. First, we find that the most prominent convenience voting reforms have mixed support. These include attitudes toward automatic voter registration, Election Day voter registration, and moving Election Day to a weekend. These reforms do not have majority support among all voters in the United States but there are some states where these reforms do have majority support and could be implemented. Second, we find that Internet voting and voting-by-mail do not receive a great deal of support from American voters. There was no state where Internet voting was supported by a majority of voters and there were no states that do not already have expanded vote by mail (Washington and Oregon) where expanded vote by mail had majority support. Finally, we find that a majority of Americans support requiring showing photo identification (overwhelming support) and making Election Day a holiday (bare majority support).Pew Charitable Trusts; JEHT Foundation; AARP (Organization