The performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules under model uncertainty

We investigate the performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules using five macroeconomic models that reflect a wide range of views on aggregate dynamics. We identify the key characteristics of rules that are robust to model uncertainty: such rules respond to the one-year-ahead inflation forecast and to the current output gap and incorporate a substantial degree of policy inertia. In contrast, rules with longer forecast horizons are less robust and are prone to generating indeterminacy. Finally, we identify a robust benchmark rule that performs very well in all five models over a wide range of policy preferences

The Debt Limit: History and Recent Increases

[Excerpt] The statutory debt limit applies to almost all federal debt. The limit applies to federal debt held by the public (that is, debt held outside the federal government itself) and to federal debt held by the government’s own accounts. Federal trust funds, such as Social Security, Medicare, Transportation, and Civil Service Retirement accounts, hold most of this internally held debt. The government’s surpluses or deficits determine essentially all of the change in debt held by the public. The government’s on-budget fiscal balance, which excludes a U.S. Postal Service net surplus or deficit and a large Social Security surplus of payroll taxes net of paid benefits, does not directly affect debt held in government accounts. Increases or decreases in debt held by government accounts result from net financial flows into accounts holding the debt, such as the Social Security Trust Fund. Legal requirements and government accounting practices also affect levels of debt held by government accounts. On August 2, 2011, President Obama signed into law the Budget Control Act of 2011 (BCA; S.365), after an extended debt limit episode. The federal debt reached its statutory limit on May 16, 2011, prompting Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner to declare a debt issuance suspension period, allowing certain extraordinary measures to extend Treasury’s borrowing capacity. The BCA included provisions aimed at deficit reduction and would allow the debt limit to rise between $2,100 billion and$2,400 billion in three stages, with the latter two subject to congressional disapproval. Two of the three increases, totaling $900 billion, have occurred, and a request for a third increase is likely to occur in mid-January 2012

Data uncertainty and the role of money as an information variable for monetary policy

In this study, we perform a quantitative assessment of the role of money as an indicator variable for monetary policy in the euro area. We document the magnitude of revisions to euro area-wide data on output, prices, and money, and find that monetary aggregates have a potentially significant role in providing information about current real output. We then proceed to analyze the information content of money in a forward-looking model in which monetary policy is optimally determined subject to incomplete information about the true state of the economy. We show that monetary aggregates may have substantial information content in an environment with high variability of output measurement errors, low variability of money demand shocks, and a strong contemporaneous linkage between money demand and real output. As a practical matter, however, we conclude that money has fairly limited information content as an indicator of contemporaneous aggregate demand in the euro area

Relative Price Distortion and Optimal Monetary Policy in Open Economies

This paper addresses three issues on the conduct of monetary policy in open economies on the basis of a two-country model with Calvo-type sticky prices. Is the isomorphism of the optimal policy problems between closed and open economies robust to whether the foreign country is buffeted by cost-push shocks? How can we obtain a linear quadratic approximation that replicates the key results of the original optimal policy problem, especially when there is an analytical solution to the original problem in the presence of initial price dispersion? What are optimal policy recommendations for the central banks in open economies when both cost-push shock and initial price dispersion exist?Cost-Push Shocks, Relative Price Distortion, Interdependence, Open Economy, Optimal Policy

Is inflation persistence intrinsic in industrial economies?

We apply both classical and Bayesian econometric methods to characterize the dynamic behavior of inflation for twelve industrial countries over the period 1984-2003, using four different price indices for each country. In particular, we estimate a univariate autoregressive (AR) model for each series, and consider the possibility of a structural break at an unknown date. For many of these countries, we find strong evidence for a break in the intercept of the AR equation in the late 1980s or early 1990s. Allowing for a break in intercept, the inflation measures generally exhibit relatively low inflation persistence. Evidently, high inflation persistence is not an inherent characteristic of industrial economies.Inflation (Finance)

Data Uncertainty and the Role of Money as an Information Variable for Monetary Policy

In this study, we perform a quantitative assessment of the role of money as an indicator variable for monetary policy in the euro area. We document the magnitude of revisions to euro area-wide data on output, prices, and money, and find that monetary aggregates have a potentially significant role in providing information about current real output. We then proceed to analyze the information content of money in a forward-looking model in which monetary policy is optimally determined subject to incomplete information about the true state of the economy. We show that monetary aggregates may have substantial information content in an environment with high variability of output measurement errors, low variability of money demand shocks, and a strong contemporaneous linkage between money demand and real output. As a practical matter, however, we conclude that money has fairly limited information content as an indicator of contemporaneous aggregate demand in the euro area.euro area, Kalman filter, macroeconomic modelling, measurement error, monetary policy rules, rational expectations