The Canada-U.S. Auto Pact of 1965: An Experiment in Selective Trade Liberalization

In this paper we analyse the Canada-U.S. Auto Pact, a selective trade liberalization agreement which created a duty-free North American market for the major U.S. multinational automobile producers, but continued to protect them from offshore producers. The new international trade/I.O. literature predicts that, given the probable unexploited economics of scale and specialization in the tariff-protected small Canadian economy prior to 1965, rationalization leading to large efficiency gains in Canadian production vis a vis U.S. production would occur in a free trade environment. We estimate that the Auto Pact did not induce a substantial improvement in Canadian relative production efficiency. The missing ingredient seems to have been the competition-increasing effects of free trade in an oligopolistic setting that is emphasized by the new trade/I.O. literature. The Auto Pact did not increase the number of rivals in the oligopolistic Canadian industry since the major players in the industry had production facilities on both sides of the Canada-U.S. border before 1965, and no significant new entry into Canada occurred. In the 1962-64 period, Canadian automotive production was 27% less efficient than U.S. production. By 1970-72 this deficiency had been reduced to 19%, but was not further reduced by the end of the 1970's. Of the 8 percentage points reduction in the Canadian disadvantage, we attribute only 3 percentage points to the rationalization process induced specifically by the Auto Pact.

Telecommunications Infrastructure and Economic Development: A Simultaneous Approach

In this paper we investigate how telecommunications infrastructure affects economic growth. This issue is important and has received considerable attention in the popular press concerning the creation of the "information superhighway" and its potential impacts on the economy. We use evidence from 21 OECD countries over the past twenty years to examine the impacts that telecommunications developments may have had. We estimate a structural model which endogenizes telecommunication investment by specifying a micro-model of supply and demand for telecommunication investments. The micromodel is then jointly estimated with the macro-growth equation. After controlling for country-specific fixed effects, we find evidence of a positive causal link, provided that a critical mass of telecommunication infrastructure is present. ZUSAMMENFASSUNG - (Telekommunikations-Infrastruktur und Wirtschaftsentwicklung: Ein simultanes Modell) In diesem Beitrag wird untersucht, welchen Einfluß die Telekommunikations-Infrastruktur auf die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung ausübt. Diese wichtige Frage hat im Zusammenhang mit der Diskussion um "Informationsautobahnen" Aktualität erlangt. In der vorliegenden Studie wird der Einfluß der Telekommunikations-Infrastruktur für 21 OECDLänder für die vergangenen 20 Jahre analysiert. Es wird ein Strukturgleichungsmodell geschätzt, in dem Investitionen in die Telekommunikations-Infrastruktur als endogene Variable erfaßt werden und in einem Mikromodell Angebot und Nachfrage nach Telekommunikations- Investitionen spezifiziert werden. Das Mikromodell wird dann zusammen mit der Makro- Wachstumsgleichung geschätzt. Als Ergebnis stellen die Autoren dann eine positive Kausalbeziehung zwischen Telekommunikations-Investitionen und wirtschaftlicher Entwicklung fest, wenn eine kritische Masse an Telekommunikations- Infrastruktur existiert.

Productivity Growth in the Automobile Industry, 1970-1980: A Comparisonof Canada, Japan and the United States

In this paper we calculate and analyze the automobile industries cost and productivity experience during the 1970 's in Canada, the U.S.and Japan. Utilizing an econometric cost function methodology, we are able to isolate the major source of short-run disequilibrium in this industry-variations' in capacity utilization-and analyze its effects on cost and total factor productivity (TFP) gross. This is achieved through a novel application of the Viner-Wng envelope theorem, which allows us to track short-run behavior utilizing what is essentially a long-run cost function.To striking empirical results energe. First, TFP grew much faster in the Japanese automobile industry (4.3% annum) than in the Canadian (1.4%) and U. S.(1.6%) industries. Second, the importance in analyzing variations in capacity utilization is confinned by the fact that failure to correct for this source of productivity change would have led to a 31% under estimate of long-run TFP growth in Canada arid a 37% underestimate for the United States.

The Extent and Sources of Cost and Efficiency Differences Between U.S. and Japanese Automobile Producers

In this paper we present for the first time estimates of cost and efficiency differences between U.S. and Japanese producers based on an econometric cost function methodology rather than the accounting frameworks previously used. We demonstrate that the cost difference estimates for 1979 which were influential in the debate that resulted in the Voluntary Restraints Agreements of 1981-85 were substantial over estimates of the Japanese advantage. While our estimate of the Japanese cost advantage for 1980 is similar to previous estimates, we attribute most of this advantage to short-run phenomena -underutilization of U.S. production capacity and an undervalued yen. In a previous paper we have shown that the Japanese TFP growth rate was much faster than the U.S. rate during the 1970's. However we estimate the long-run underlying Japanese efficiency advantage as of 1980 to have been only 1-2%, much less than previously estimated. This results from the fact that Japan began the 1970's with a long-run efficiency disadvantage of over 20%, and the decade of the 1970's represented a catch-up period for Japanese producers.

The State of the North American and Japanese Motor Vehicle Industries: A Partially Calibrated Model to Examine the Impacts of Trade Policy Changes

In this paper we utilize a three component model of the automotive industry to simulate the impacts of various trade policy scenarios, such as changes in tariffs and quotas, on the U.S. and Canadian motor vehicle sectors as compared to their Japanese competitors. The three components are a cost module, a mark-up module and a demand module. These models contain the features stressed by the "new" international trade literature: (I) economies of scale in production, (2) imperfect competition, and (3) product differentiation. As a result of these modelling details we are able to capture quantitatively a number of outcome characteristics stressed in the strategic trade literature. Scenarios which expand a country's output reduce unit costs of production, both in the short and long-run. Protectionist policies adopted by North American governments result in rent transfers to these countries. The price and output effects of scenarios which favour North American producers at the expense of Japanese producers however are moderated by the Japanese practices of partial pass-through and pricing-to-market. The welfare implications of the various scenarios are in accordance with the strategic trade literature, in the sense the protectionist policies can in some cases increase aggregate welfare in North America at the expense of Japan.