The demography of entrepreneurs and enterprises

Industrial dynamics is increasingly studied from a demographic perspective. Demography of firms is one of the research methods to describe and analyse the evolution of industries. Although this is a very useful and promising interdisciplinary field of study, there are a number of conceptual problems when dealing with the formal demography of firms, and especially in the demographic component of firm start-ups. Fertility or parenthood is not clearly defined here, and occurrence-exposure rates or probabilities of giving birth to a firm are difficult to define. An alternative way of looking at the process of firm start-ups is to view the process as essentially driven by decisions of entrepreneurs within a labour market setting. A worker may decide to be an employee, to be self-employed or an entrepreneur. Although there is not a one-to-one correspondence between entrepreneurs and enterprises, the behaviour of more than 90 percent of firms can be studied from an individual entrepreneurial point of view. There is a large methodological advantage when taking the labour market point of view. Standard demographic tools may be used for describing, analysing and even conditional forecasting of the process. This paper shows how multidimensional demographic models may be used in describing and analysing the process of firm start-ups from an entrepreneurial perspective.

A multistate demographic model for firms in the province of Gelderland

In the last two decades researchers from various disciplines have made attempts to model and estimate developments in the size and structure of the population of firms. Although these attempts give useful insights into possible explanatory factors of firm dynamics, the explanatory value, and hence predictive power of these models is usually not very high. In this paper we follow a pure demographic approach for the modelling of firm survival. Important dimensions of the firm are firm age, firm size (in number of employees), economic activity and firm location. Using empirical firm level data for the region of Gelderland in the Netherlands over the period 1986-2002, developments in survival are described and analysed over time in an age-period-cohort perspective. In a later phase of the project, these (aggregated) scenarios will serve as a point of reference for comparisons to more extended model specifications using micro-simulation that include additional explanatory and spatial variables. Keywords: demography of the firm, Age-Period-Cohort model, firm survival, closures

SIMFIRMS - SIMULATING THE SPATIAL DEMOGRAPHY OF FIRMS, WITH AN APPLICATION IN THE NETHERLANDS

Recently, there is an increasing demand in spatial planning for models based on the demographic concepts of birth and death of firms. This paper describes the structure of a spatial demographic simulation model of firms, and its application within the Netherlands. The model structure is essentially of the familiar demographic cohort component type, where an initial cohort of firms ages in a number of discrete steps, and where in each step additions and subtractions to and from the population are modelled using birth, death and migration components. Apart from the central processes of birth, death and migration, the type of economic activity and firm size are highly important for understanding firm behaviour over time. The paper describes the transition functions for each of the demographic components and for firm growth. In addition, some empirical results are presented of a number of model simulations in the Netherlands. The results were partly validated using observed economic demographic data. It is concluded that a substantial amount of work remains to be done in this new field. The model presented here has direct implications for the research agenda of the study of the demography of the firm.

Explaining new trends in the gender gap of mortality: Insights from a regional trend- analysis of the Netherlands

The recent decrease of the male-female mortality gap in Western Europe has been accompanied by changes in the life style, educational level, family roles and employment of women. In this paper we try to find out whether a relationship indeed exists between the increase in gender equality and the decrease in the male/female mortality difference. We used regional-level data for the Netherlands for the periods 1980-83 and 1996-99 on gender differences in life expectancy, by age group and cause of death, and various measures of gender inequality on the same regional level. In doing this we followed as far as possible a framework recently developed by Ingrid Waldron to analyse changes in gender differences in mortality in the US. The cross-sectional analyses showed that in 1980-83 it was rather socioeconomic than gender role variables that were important in explaining gender difference in mortality, while in the period 1996-99, it was the other way around.

In search of a modelling strategy for projecting internal migration in European countries - Demographic versus economic-geographical approaches

Internal migration is the most volatile and difficult to predict component of regional demographic change. A pure demographic approach using age and sex-specific parameters of migration intensities cannot fully capture the migration trends over time. One of the approaches that can be used for a better description of past trends and forecasting of future trends is to use additional non-demographic information such as regional economic indicators. In this paper we compare the predictive performance of pure demographic and extended economic-geographical models using data of four European countries at the so-called NUTS 2 level. The models are nested within a GLM specification%2C that allows both demographic and extended models to be written as specific cases of loglinear models. Therefore model fit and performance can be compared directly.

Economic Convergence In Ageing Europe

European regions experience accelerating ageing, but the process has substantial regional variation. This paper examines the effect of this variation on regional economic cohesion in Europe. We measure the effect of convergence or divergence in the share of the working age population on convergence or divergence in economies of NUTS 2 regions. The effect of convergence or divergence in ageing on economic convergence or divergence is quite substantial and, in some cases, is bigger than the effect of changes in productivity and labour force participation. Convergence of ageing leads to economic convergence only when the share of the working age population in rich regions exceeds that in poor regions and the former regions experience a substantial decline in the share of the working age population, or the latter regions experience an increase. During 2003–12, an inverse relationship between convergence in ageing and economic convergence was the rule rather than the exception

Unequally ageing regions of Europe:Exploring the role of urbanization

Since young adults tend to move from rural to urban regions, whereas older adults move from urban to rural regions, we may expect to see increasing differences in population ageing across urban and rural regions. This paper examines whether trends in population ageing across urban and rural NUTS-2 regions of the EU-27 have diverged over the period 2003–13. We use the methodological approach of convergence analysis, quite recently brought to demography from the field of economic research. Unlike classical beta and sigma approaches to convergence, we focus not on any single summary statistic of convergence, but rather analyse the whole cumulative distribution of regions. Such an approach helps to identify which specific group of regions is responsible for the major changes. Our results suggest that, despite expectations, there was no divergence in age structures between urban and rural regions; rather, divergence happened within each of the groups of regions