Validation and comparison of 28 risk prediction models for coronary artery disease

Aims Risk prediction models (RPMs) for coronary artery disease (CAD), using variables to calculate CAD risk, are potentially valuable tools in prevention strategies. However, their use in the clinical practice is limited by a lack of poor model description, external validation, and head-to-head comparisons. Methods and results CAD RPMs were identified through Tufts PACE CPM Registry and a systematic PubMed search. Every RPM was externally validated in the three cohorts (the UK Biobank, LifeLines, and PREVEND studies) for the primary endpoint myocardial infarction (MI) and secondary endpoint CAD, consisting of MI, percutaneous coronary intervention, and coronary artery bypass grafting. Model discrimination (C-index), calibration (intercept and regression slope), and accuracy (Brier score) were assessed and compared head-to-head between RPMs. Linear regression analysis was performed to evaluate predictive factors to estimate calibration ability of an RPM. Eleven articles containing 28 CAD RPMs were included. No single best-performing RPM could be identified across all cohorts and outcomes. Most RPMs yielded fair discrimination ability: mean C-index of RPMs was 0.706 +/- 0.049, 0.778 +/- 0.097, and 0.729 +/- 0.074 (P < 0.01) for prediction of MI in UK Biobank, LifeLines, and PREVEND, respectively. Endpoint incidence in the original development cohorts was identified as a significant predictor for external validation performance. Conclusion Performance of CAD RPMs was comparable upon validation in three large cohorts, based on which no specific RPM can be recommended for predicting CAD risk

Incidence and predictors of heart failure with reduced and preserved ejection fraction after ST-elevation myocardial infarction in the contemporary era of early percutaneous coronary intervention

Aims: The development and incidence of de-novo heart failure after ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) in the contemporary era of rapid reperfusion are largely unknown. We aimed to establish the incidence of post-STEMI heart failure, stratified by left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and to find predictors for its occurrence. Furthermore, we investigated the course of left ventricular systolic and diastolic function after STEMI. Methods and results: A total of 1172 all-comer STEMI patients from the CardioLines Biobank were included. Patients were predominantly male (74.5%) and 64 ± 12 years of age. During a median follow-up of 3.7 years (2.0, 5.5) we found a total incidence of post-STEMI heart failure of 10.9%, of which 52.1% heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), 29.4% heart failure with mildly reduced ejection fraction and 18.5% heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). Independent predictors for the development of HFrEF were male sex (β = 0.97, p = 0.009), lung crepitations (β = 1.09, p = 0.001), potassium level (mmol/L, β = 0.43, p = 0.012), neutrophil count (109/L, β = 0.09, p = 0.001) and a reduced LVEF (β = 1.91, p < 0.001) at baseline. Independent predictors for the development of HFpEF were female sex (β = 0.99, p = 0.029), pre-existing kidney failure (β = 1.95, p = 0.003) and greater left atrial volume index (β = 0.04, p = 0.033) at baseline. Follow-up echocardiography (median follow-up 20 months) showed an improvement in LVEF (p < 0.001), whereas changes in diastolic function parameters showed both improvement and deterioration. Conclusion: In the current era of early STEMI reperfusion, still one in 10 patients develops heart failure, with approximately half of the patients with a reduced and half with a mildly reduced or normal LVEF. Predictors for the development of HFrEF were different from HFpEF

Population- and type-specific clustering of multiple HPV types across diverse risk populations in the Netherlands

In view of possible type replacement upon introduction of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, we aimed to explore patterns of type-specific clustering across populations with various background infection risks. A total of 3,874 women from 3 cross-sectional studies in the Netherlands (in 2007-2009) provided vaginal self-samples, which were tested for 25 HPV genotypes by a sensitive molecular assay (SPF10 line probe assay, DDL Diagnostic Laboratory, Voorburg, the Netherlands). The number of concurrent HPV infections per woman was studied by Poisson regression. Associations between HPV types were investigated by generalized estimating equation analyses. The prevalence of any HPV type was 14% in a population-based study, 54% in a chlamydia screening intervention study, and 73% in a study among attendees of sexually transmitted infection clinics. Overall, multiple HPV infections were detected in 26% of the women. The number of concurrent HPV infections conformed to an overdispersed Poisson distribution, even after correction for known risk factors. Types differed significantly in their tendencies to be involved in coinfections, but no evidence for particular type-type interactions was found. Moreover, the strongest associations were observed in the lowest-risk population and vice versa.We found no indications of pairwise interactions, but our findings do suggest that clustering differs among HPV types and varies across risk group