The quantitative approach to business cycle in « X-Crise » group in the 1930's

To construct models and to apply quantitative techniques in order to explain the cyclical movements of the economy is one of the main aims of “X-Crise” group (nickname of “Centre Polytechnicien d'Etudes Economiques”) at the “Ecole Polytechnique” in Paris. Indeed, french polytechniciens' engineers hope that mathematical economics, and especially empirically based modelization, will be helpful first to build a true economic science, and second, to find solutions to the 1930's crisis. These hopes are developed in the methodological debate that Polytechniciens began even before the creation of the association X-Crise. They explain in particular their rejection of "pure” economics and their defence of an approach which mixes economic concepts, statistical facts and mathematical model – such as econometrics. Overall, these hopes are expressed through models constructed by X-Crise members, such as Polytechniciens like François Moch and Maurice Potron or non-polytechniciens like brothers Georges and Edouard Guillaume. Attempts were done to include business cycle in their models. But, finally, they failed to confront them to empirical data.French Engineers - Business Cycles - history of econometrics

French Engineers and the Machinery of Society: X-Crise and the Development of the first Macroeconomic Models in the Nineteen Thirties

The purpose of this article is to highlight the originality of X-Crise, an Ecole Polytechnique association formed in nineteen thirties' France. Firstly il analyses the factors leading the French engineers to look collectively, for the first time of their history, at the big politicoeconomic problems of their epoch. Two factors seem particularly relevant on this matter : their epistemology and value system on one hand, and their perception of the theoretical and political impotence at that time on the other hand.Secondly this paper presents the main original theoretical elements that arose from the group's deliberations. Among them, it exposes the Guillaume brothers' macroeconomic model [1932], one of the very first macroeconomic model produced in France, and Potron's first application to economics of Perron-Frobenius's theorem (Potron [1911] and [1935]).French Engineers - Macroeconomic models - Pragmatism - Mechanics - Perron-Frobenius's theorem

L'impact de la crise sur les dynamiques sectorielles dans les transports internationaux

Une dimension spéculative affecte désormais le secteur des transports, en particulier le transport maritime de marchandises. Elle explique la coïncidence de l'essor des commandes de navire avec la formation de la bulle spéculative immobilière et financière que l'on connaît depuis 2002. Comme dans le maritime, tous les modes de transport connaissent une superposition d'une dynamique interne avec la crise actuelle. La question de savoir comment la crise affecte ces dynamiques sectorielles est cruciale pour leur évolution future. Une dynamique sectorielle en phase de croissance n'a a priori aucune raison de conserver les mêmes caractéristiques en phase de récession. Existe-t-il des fragilités systémiques que la crise met à jour et qui en favorisent la propagation ? La crise provoquera-t-elle des mutations industrielles dans certains modes de transport

Changements institutionnels et efficience de l'affrètement au voyage dans le transport fluvial de marchandises

VNF (2010)'s statistical data show a remarkable resilience of inland navigation in France during the recession. Yet at least part of the profession is in crisis: the boatmen are now likely to be close to bankruptcy. Key players in the fully liberalized (since 2000) spot market, small independent barge owners bear the brunt of lower prices resulting from a destructive competition exacerbated in times of recession. Transaction costs associated with this new institutional environment exacerbate this pro-cyclical behavior detrimental to the entire profession. With the help of transaction costs economics, the article assesses the conditions of efficiency of voyage charter in the spot market before and after the abolition of the "Tour de rôle" and lead to recommendations to improve organization and efficiency of this market segment.inland navigation ; spot market ; small independent barge owners ; transaction costs

Pre- and end-haulage of containers in shipping chains: the neglected role of transaction costs in shippers' modal choices

Lots of studies have been devoted to shipper's modal choices since Baumol and Vinodt (1970) seminal papers. But, surprisingly, whereas institutional aspects play a determinant part in the structure of relationships in every supply chain, they are barely taken into account in academic papers (McGinnis, 1989; Jiang, 1998; Henscher and Puckett, 2005; Brooks et al., 2012), particularly regarding transaction costs. Indeed, shippers' modal choices are often characterised by their inertia (Golicic et al, 2003), which cannot be explained without Transaction Costs Economics (or New Institutional Economics, see Ruester, 2010), as developed by Coase (1937) and Williamson (1985; 1996) seminal works. This paper aims at showing that transaction costs are partially responsible for the low modal share of container barge transport in French maritime ports (9% of TEU in Le Havre and 5% in Marseille in 2007). But instead of dealing with the transaction chain of container barging itself (Fischman and Lendjel, 2012), the paper focuses on shipper's decision making process. The paper finds empirical evidence of those costs in ECHO's survey (Guilbault et al., 2008), focusing on shipments involving barging legs in containerized maritime chains. The last section discusses those results

Walras et le tâtonnement : Gauss-Seidel ou ... Lagrange ?

Cet article répond à une lacune dans l'historiographie walrassienne. De nombreux auteurs s'accordent sur le caractère mathématique du tâtonnement chez Walras, mais sans lui donner une forme mathématique précise. Cet article montre ainsi que Walras se sert de la méthode de Lagrange qu'il identifie au tâtonnement. Il s'agit d'une méthode itérative de résolution d'équation assez répandue au début du XIXème siècle. Grâce à cette méthode, Walras démontre que le mécanisme de la concurrence parvient "pratiquement", par tâtonnements, aux mêmes solutions d'équilibre que celles établies par le théoricien lors de la résolution du système d'équations. Cet article tente ensuite de corroborer cette interprétation en montrant que Cournot utilise cette même méthode à propos du monopole. Enfin, une série d'arguments est avancée afin d'écarter une hypothèse alternative développée par Uzawa [1960] : celle de l'utilisation par Walras de la méthode de Gauss-Seidel.Walras - tâtonnement - méthodes itératives - méthode de Lagrange - méthode de Gauss-Seidel

Le tâtonnement "marshallien" dans les premiers écrits d'Oskar Lange

Cet article revient sur le célèbre article de O. Lange [1936-37] en prenant appui sur ses premiers écrits (Lange [1932], [1935a], [1935b]) afin de montrer qu'il développe une représentation originale du processus marchand. Ces premiers articles mettent en lumière deux points méconnus de ses travaux. 1/ Tout d'abord, Lange développe un modèle original décrivant le processus d'ajustement temporel de l'offre dans les secteurs industriels (en complément du diagramme du cobweb se rapportant principalement aux secteurs agricoles). 2/ Cet article montre ensuite que Lange articule ces différents modèles dans le cadre d'une conception originale du tâtonnement. L'article montre que cette conception relève davantage de l'approche marshallienne que de l'approche walrassienne habituelle.équilibre général; tâtonnement; délais d'ajustement; Oskar Lange

Maritime Ports And Inland Interconnections: A Transactional Analysis Of Container Barge Transport In France

Recent research on maritime ports hinterlands points out the relevance of mass ground transport modes such as barge transport for enormous flows of containers to and from harbours, especially when a maritime port is located at the mouth of a river. Though, the modal share of container barge transport in French maritime ports (9% of TEU in Le Havre and 5% in Marseille in 2007) is significantly lower than elsewhere (32% in Rotterdam and 33% in Antwerp). Some reports and studies explain the viscosity of container barge transport flows as a result of several factors, generally concentrated around the seaport community. In continuation of previous seminal works, this paper adopts a neo-institutional approach (Williamson, 1985; 1996) of container barge transport to understand how the factors generating this viscosity are managed. Section 2 describes the characteristics of the transaction of container barge transport. Section 3 is devoted to its attributes (asset specificity, frequency, uncertainty). According to Williamson's (1996) remediableness criterion, the observed governance structure of a given transaction is presumed efficient and aligned to its attributes. Thus, Section 4 deals with observed governance structures of container barge transport chains with a focus on Le Havre, main French container seaport and shows how agents try to limit opportunism in ex-post haggling over quasi-rents or under-investments. Implementation of a new institutional environment to modify governance structures is analysed, and a comparison with currently implemented governance structures observed in Rhine is made. Finally, Section 5 suggests ways of dealing with the remaining coordination problems impeding the development of container barge transport in France

The quantitative approach to business cycle in « X-Crise » group in the 1930's

To construct models and to apply quantitative techniques in order to explain the cyclical movements of the economy is one of the main aims of “X-Crise” group (nickname of “Centre Polytechnicien d'Etudes Economiques”) at the “Ecole Polytechnique” in Paris. Indeed, french polytechniciens' engineers hope that mathematical economics, and especially empirically based modelization, will be helpful first to build a true economic science, and second, to find solutions to the 1930's crisis. These hopes are developed in the methodological debate that Polytechniciens began even before the creation of the association X-Crise. They explain in particular their rejection of "pure” economics and their defence of an approach which mixes economic concepts, statistical facts and mathematical model – such as econometrics. Overall, these hopes are expressed through models constructed by X-Crise members, such as Polytechniciens like François Moch and Maurice Potron or non-polytechniciens like brothers Georges and Edouard Guillaume. Attempts were done to include business cycle in their models. But, finally, they failed to confront them to empirical data

De X-Crise (1931-1939) à X-Sursaut (2005- ?) : L'apport des Polytechniciens à la réflexion sur le rôle de l'Etat dans la vie économique

The paper tackles with the contributions on the nature and outlines of the social State in France of two associations of polytechniciens (graduates from the French Ecole polytechnique), X-Crise (constituted in the thirties) and X-Sursaut (which is contemporary to us). The paper shows that their approach, of course marked by epochs in which it manifests itself, has a syncretic and pragmatic character. Next, the paper tries to assess the capacities of innovation of X-Sursaut in its conception of social matters.Le papier s'intéresse à l'apport de deux associations de polytechniciens, l'une – X-Crise – constituée dans les années trente et l'autre – X-Sursaut – qui nous est contemporaine, à la réflexion sur la nature et les contours de l'Etat social en France. Le papier montre que l'approche des polytechniciens, certes marquée par les époques dans lesquelles elle se manifeste, se démarque par son caractère syncrétique et pragmatique. Le papier extrapole ensuite les capacités d'innovation d'X-Sursaut en matière de conception de l'Etat social