Generalizing the Results of Foresight Studies on the Development of Markets for Liquid Hydrocarbons across the World and Forming Consensus Forecast

The article is dedicated to the systematization of forecast trends in the development of liquid hydrocarbons across the world, as well as the formation of a consensus forecast for this area of energy use. There analyzed foresight studies carried out for individual organizations as well as the demand for liquid hydrocarbons, its consensus forecast being formed. The regional and sectoral structures of the world consumption of liquid hydrocarbons are determined, and their consensus forecasts are formed. The current trends in the consumption of liquid hydrocarbons and the extraction of crude oil are considered. The forecast trends in the expansion of the raw-material basket for the production of liquid hydrocarbons are analyzed. It is shown that the world oil production will remain the dominant source of supply of liquid hydrocarbons. The forecast of oil production in the world is formed. There carried out a comparative analysis of the data of different energy foresight studies on the world oil production. Using the consolidated forecast, its regional structure and consensus forecast are formed. Since forecasting oil prices is an integral part of making prognosis both of the market of liquid hydrocarbons and the entire energy landscape of the future, the forecasts of oil prices in the studies carried out for individual organizations are considered, and their consensus forecast is formed. Based on the study, the main trend in the sphere of liquid hydrocarbons and key trends in the long-term development of this sphere of energy use are highlighted. It is proved that the world oil market in the long term becomes even more concentrated, while the market for liquid hydrocarbons is undergoing significant diversification associated with the expansion of production and consumption of non-oil fuels. The low oil prices in the global market are revealed to be an obstacle to substitution of oil raw materials, as well as for the development of non-conventional oil resources

Assessment and Diagnostics of the Development of Distributed Generation in Ukraine

The article proves that the concept of centralized energy supply is losing its significance, and the ideology of the new paradigm of energy development, among the basic provisions of which there is the need for the advanced development of distributed energy systems, comes to replace it. The aim of the article is to develop and test a methodological approach to assessing the level of development of distributed generation in Ukraine and its regions. There defined the essence of the concept “distributed generation” and its main principles: 1 – proximity of the location of production facilities to consumers; 2 – flexibility of production facilities; 3 – use of diversified nomenclature of primary fuel and energy resources (PFER). The methodological approach to assessing the development level of distributed generation in Ukraine and its regions is proposed. Within the framework of the approach: the indicator of covering demand by local production of regions of Ukraine is calculated; the degree of adequacy of local production for covering electricity demand in them is estimated; the indicators of development of distributed generation in regions of Ukraine are calculated; the structure of the power generation park in the country is studied, and the indicator of flexibility of production facilities in its regions is calculated; the level of flexibility of facilities in regions of the country is assessed; the structure of the power generation park in Ukraine by type of PFER is analyzed, and the indicator of diversification of production facilities in regions of the country by type of PFEPs is calculated; the level of diversification of facilities in regions of Ukraine by type of PFEPs is assessed; based on individual indicators, including the indicators of covering demand by production, energy flexibility, and diversification of facilities, the integral indicator of the development level of distributed generation in regions of Ukraine in 2017 is calculated

Conceptual Foundations of Strengthening the Fuel Security of the National Economy

The aim of the article is to substantiate conceptual foundations for strengthening the fuel security of Ukraine under conditions of achieving energy independence from import of finished petroleum products, ensuring energy efficiency of the transformation of primary fuel and energy resources into motor fuel and its energy saving in the transport sector. The key problems in the sphere of liquid fuel use in Ukraine are non-competitiveness of the national oil refining complex, import orientation of the Ukrainian motor fuel consumer, scarcity of the explored reserves of liquid hydrocarbons on the territory of Ukraine, monopolization of transport routes for external deliveries of crude oil. The development of Ukraine’s fuel sector should be implemented on the basis of the national model of fuel security, which provides for balancing the motor fuel market, ensuring sustainable development of the fuel sector and satisfying interests of market actors. The strategic goals of fuel security are defined as energy independence, energy efficiency and energy saving. In the article they were decomposed at the operational level, and the following necessary components were identified: maximization of the national oil production; diversification of external oil supplies with complete abandonment of imports of finished petroleum products, increase in the yield of light oil products; replacement of oil with the national energy potential, saving of motor fuel at the stage of its consumption