Estimando Probabilidades de Ocorrência de Crises Cambiais no Brasil

The main objective of this paper is to find an alternative way of estimation of the probabilities of devalutation instead of the traditional method Logit. The methodology is based on Olivier Jeanne (1997) and several articles of Svensson and Rose. Logit models have certain degree of subjectivity on the determination of the periods of crisis and periods of non-crisis. Jeanne’s method tries to tackle out this problem and it seems appropriate to Brazilian economy. After estimating the probabilities of devaluation in Brazilian economy in the period july/94-january/99, there is an investigation of the variables that may influence that probability. Some variables that are described in the first and in the second generation models of balance of payments crisis are considered statistically significants to determine the probability of devaluation.Balance of Payments Crisis, Causes of Speculative Attacks, Brazilian Economy in the 90’s, Exchange Rate Devaluation, Drift adjustment method.

ADOÇÃO DE INOVAÇÃO TECNOLÓGICA EM EDUCAÇÃO A DISTÂNCIA

This article discusses the adoption of technological innovations in distance learning by means of a model of factors about the behavior of instructors in a virtual learning environment. The theoretical research model is based on innovation diffusion theory (IDT) and the technology acceptance model (TAM), particularly on the links between the perceived characteristics of innovating and the instructors’ attitude and intention towards a specific distance learning tool (Moodle). A survey was administered to 162 distance learning instructors at Universidade Federal da Paraíba Virtual, whose headquarters are located in João Pessoa, Brazil. The survey included items on both theoretical frameworks (IDT and TAM). By means of descriptive statistics, multiple regression analysis, and exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses, the research model was tested in order to assure its conceptual and empirical validity. Findings show that four IDT constructs account for the variance in attitudes and intentions of instructors towards technology adoption: relative advantage and compatibility with preferred work style (that merged into a single construct), visibility, and result demonstrability. This means that variations in attitudes and intentions are due to how instructors perceive the tool (Moodle) as useful and compatible with work routines, how they perceive it as an in-use technology, and how the outcomes of use are perceived by other people.En este artículo se investiga el proceso de adopción de la innovación tecnológica en educación a distancia a través de un modelo de factores relacionados con el comportamiento de los maestros en un entorno virtual de aprendizaje. El modelo conceptual de investigación se basa en la teoría de difusión de la innovación (IDT) y en el modelo de aceptación de la tecnología (TAM), donde se establecen relaciones entre las características percibidas de la innovación y la actitud y la intención de los maestros en el proceso de adopción de una herramienta específica (Moodle). Se utilizó una encuesta aplicada a 162 maestros de la Universidad Federal de Paraíba Virtual, centrándose en las preguntas sobre la relación entre los dos modelos teóricos básicos (TAM y IDT). Por medio de estadística descriptiva, análisis de regresión múltiple, y análisis factorial exploratorio y confirmatorio, el modelo fue sometido a pruebas para garantizar la validez conceptual y empírica. Cuatro constructos de IDT parecen explicar las variaciones en la actitud y la intención de adopción de tecnología por parte de los maestros: avance relativo y compatibilidad con el estilo de trabajo (que convergieron en un solo grupo), la visibilidad, y la demostrabilidad del resultado. Esto significa que los cambios en la actitud y la intención se explican por cómo los maestros perciben que la herramienta (Moodle) es útil y compatible con el estilo de trabajo, cómo la herramienta está siendo utilizada, y cómo los resultados son vistos por los demás.Este artigo investiga o processo de adoção de inovação tecnológica em educação a distância (EaD) por meio de um modelo de fatores relacionados ao comportamento de professores em um ambiente virtual de aprendizagem. O modelo conceitual de pesquisa é baseado na teoria da difusão da inovação (IDT) e no modelo de aceitação da tecnologia (TAM), estabelecendo relações entre as características percebidas da inovação e a atitude e a intenção de professores no processo de adoção de uma ferramenta específica (Moodle). Utilizou-se uma estratégia de levantamento (survey) aplicado a 162 professores de EaD na Universidade Federal da Paraíba Virtual para investigar o vínculo entre IDT e TAM. Por meio de estatística descritiva, análise de regressão múltipla e análise fatorial exploratória e confirmatória, o modelo foi testado para estimar sua validade conceitual e empírica. Resultados indicam que quatro construtos IDT parecem explicar variações em atitude e intenção de adoção da tecnologia por professores: avanço relativo e compatibilidade com estilo de trabalho (que convergiram para um único agrupamento), visibilidade, e demonstrabilidade de resultado. Isso significa que as variações em atitude e intenção são explicadas pela maneira como os professores percebem que a ferramenta (Moodle) é útil e compatível com o estilo de trabalho, como a ferramenta está sendo utilizada, e como os resultados são vistos por outras pessoas

Contingent Valuation Method and the beta model: an accounting economic vision for environmental damage in Atlântico Sul Shipyard

O objetivo deste trabalho é aplicar o modelo beta como forma alternativa ao Método de Valoração, a fim de estimar a Disposição a Pagar (Willingness to Pay - WTP, na sigla em inglês) do bem ambiental de modo que o Tribunal de Contas do Estado de Pernambuco (TCE/PE) possa fiscalizar o Estaleiro Atlântico Sul (EAS) como uma externalidade ambiental negativa, discutido neste trabalho a partir de uma perspectiva contábil. A metodologia é exploratória, e o modelo de regressão beta foi utilizado na valoração contingente para estimar o bem ambiental. Os resultados permitiram estimar o valor do manguezal de Ipojuca em US$134.079.793,50 e o valor do dano ambiental causado pelo estaleiro ao bem público foi avaliada em US$ 61.378.155,37. Este último valor é objeto de interesse para o órgão fiscalizador. No entanto, o valor estimado final do manguezal de Ipojuca fomenta uma discussão sobre as implicações do ponto de vista contábil, como a atribuição de valor monetário a um bem público que não possui valor financeiro, problemas de conceituação e valoração de bens públicos para patrimônio governamental. Conclui-se que o modelo de regressão beta para estimar a WTP para valoração contingente servirá como contribuição para a pesquisa sobre técnicas de mensuração contábil para bens públicos.The objective of this paper is to apply the beta model as an alternative to the Valuation Method in order to estimate the environmental asset Willingness to Pay (WTP) so that the Tribunal de Contas do Estado de Pernambuco (TCE/PE) can supervise the Atlântico Sul Shipyard (ASS) as a negative environmental externality, which is discussed here from an accounting perspective. Our methodology is exploratory, and the beta regression model was used in the contingent valuation to estimate the environmental asset. The results allowed estimating the value of the Ipojuca mangrove at US$134,079,793.50, and the value of the environmental damage caused by the shipyard to the public asset was valued at US$ 61,378,155.37. This latter value is object of interest to the inspection body. However, the final estimated value of the Ipojuca mangrove prompts a discussion about the implications from an accounting point of view, such as the attribution of monetary value to a public asset that does not have a financial value, problems regarding the conceptualization and valuation of public assets for governmental patrimony. It is concluded that the beta regression model to estimate the WTP for contingent valuation will serve as a contribution to the research on accounting measurement techniques for public assets

A Disease Register for ME/CFS: Report of a Pilot Study.

BACKGROUND: The ME/CFS Disease Register is one of six subprojects within the National ME/CFS Observatory, a research programme funded by the Big Lottery Fund and sponsored by Action for ME. A pilot study in East Anglia, East Yorkshire, and London aimed to address the problem of identifying representative groups of subjects for research, in order to be able to draw conclusions applicable to the whole ME/CFS population.While not aiming for comprehensive population coverage, this pilot register sought to recruit participants with ME/CFS in an unbiased way from a large population base. Those recruited are constituting a cohort for long-term follow-up to shed light on prognosis, and a sampling frame for other studies. FINDINGS: Patients with unidentified chronic fatigue were identified in GP databases using a READ-code based algorithm, and conformity to certain case definitions for ME/CFS determined. 29 practices, covering a population aged 18 to 64 of 143,153, participated.510 patients with unexplained chronic fatigue were identified. 265 of these conformed to one or more case definitions. 216 were invited to join the register; 160 agreed. 96.9% of participants conformed to the CDC 1994 (Fukuda) definition; the Canadian definition defined more precisely a subset of these. The addition of an epidemiological case definition increased case ascertainment by approximately 4%. A small-scale study in a specialist referral service in East Anglia was also undertaken.There was little difference in pattern of conformity to case definitions, age or sex among disease register participants compared with subjects in a parallel epidemiological study who declined to participate.One-year follow-up of 50 subjects showed little change in pain or fatigue scores. There were some changes in conformity to case definitions. CONCLUSIONS: Objective evaluation indicated that the aim of recruiting participants with ME/CFS to a Disease Register had been fulfilled, and confirmed the feasibility of our approach to case identification, data processing, transmission, storage, and analysis. Future developments should include expansion of the ME/CFS Register and its linkage to a tissue sample bank and post mortem tissue archive, to facilitate support for further research studies

Pesquisa Quantitativa em Finanças: Uma Análise das Técnicas Estatísticas Utilizadas por Artigos Científicos Publicados em Periódicos Qualificados no Triênio 2007-2009

This study aimed to examine whether there are differences, in terms of sophistication and accuracy, in statistical techniques used by finance articles published in journals classified by CAPES, from 2007 to 2009. The sample consisted of 100 articles from 40 journals, national and international, inserted between strata A1 and B5. We used descriptive statistics in order to characterize the sample, and the chi-square test of independence, by means of which was examined the degree of independence between variables. The results suggest that the higher the classification level of the stratum, the greater the sophistication of statistical techniques employed in the articles. However, regarding the accuracy in applying the techniques, there were no significant differences between one stratum and another. Most of the articles analyzed (57%) not validated or partially validated the assumptions required for their use. Thus, it was realized that there was not proper concern with this aspect, even in well qualified strata. We emphasize that the results are restricted to the sample used. We recommend that future studies use large samples, including other means of publication, like events, both in finance as in other areas of knowledge.Este trabalho teve como objetivo analisar se há diferenças, em termos de sofisticação e rigor, nas técnicas estatísticas utilizadas por artigos de finanças, publicados em periódicos qualificados pela CAPES, no triênio 2007-2009. A amostra foi constituída por 100 artigos de 40 periódicos, nacionais e internacionais, inseridos entre os estratos A1 e B5. Foram utilizadas estatísticas descritivas, a fim de caracterizar a amostra, e o teste qui-quadrado de independência, por meio do qual se analisou o grau de independência entre as variáveis estudadas. Os resultados obtidos sugerem que, quanto maior o nível de classificação do estrato, maior é a sofisticação das técnicas estatísticas empregadas nos artigos. Todavia, com relação ao rigor na aplicação das técnicas, verificou-se não haver diferenças significativas entre um estrato e outro. A maioria dos artigos analisados (57%) não validou ou validou parcialmente os pressupostos necessários para sua utilização. Dessa forma, percebeu-se que não houve a devida preocupação com esse aspecto, inclusive nos estratos mais bem qualificados. Ressalta-se que os resultados obtidos ficam restritos à amostra utilizada. Recomenda-se que estudos futuros utilizem amostras superiores, incluindo outros veículos de publicação, como eventos, tanto na área de finanças como em outras áreas do conhecimento.

Importance of superficial circumflex iliac artery preservation to prevent abdominal wall necrosis in patients who underwent mini-abdominoplasty: an surgical-anatomic descriptive and prospective study

INTRODUCTION: Abdominoplasty is the third most performed procedure in plastic surgery. To avoid surgical complications, a study of the superficial circumflex iliac artery of the abdomen (SCIA) was carried out to investigate the importance of this artery preservation in abdominoplasties as one of the high importance factors to prevent necrosis. METHODS: This prospective study was carried out at the Plastic Surgery Service of the Agamenon Magalhaes Hospital. We included 33 patients who underwent abdominoplasty using Pitanguy's technique where the resected surgical flaps underwent hemodynamic studies to analyze the anatomical area irrigated by SCIA. RESULTS: A total of 82 patients underwent surgery, of them 33 met the study inclusion criteria, and 6 (18.9%) were excluded for technical reasons. Patients' age ranged from 23 and 49 years (36.6±7.5), their body mass index (BMI) ranged from 22.0 to 30.5 (24.9 ± 2.1), and weight of resected surgical specimens ranged from 450 to 1010 grams (623.1 ± 141.5). Pearson's test between BMI and weight of surgical specimens showed significant correlation r = 0.91 and r2 = 0,83. We included in the study 32 women (97%) and 1 man (3%). One patient had hypertension (3%). Of the sample, 27 patients were pardo (81.8%), 2 white (6.1%), 3 black (9.1%) and 1 native south American (3.0%). In hemodynamic studies, images and videos obtained showed that injection of iodinated contrast in SCIA were considered adequate, and consistent with the objective of this study in 25 (92%) patients and inadequate for 2 (8%) patients. CONCLUSION: Hemodynamic results of our study indicated that preservation of SCIA of the abdomen in mini-abdominoplasties is important to prevent necrosis of abdominal wall

A ética do silêncio racial no contexto urbano: políticas públicas e desigualdade social no Recife, 1900-1940

Mais de meio século após o preconceito racial ter se tornado o principal alvo dos movimentos urbanos pelos direitos civis nos Estados Unidos e na África do Sul, e décadas depois do surgimento dos movimentos negros contemporâneos no Brasil, o conjunto de ferramentas legislativas criado no Brasil para promover o direito à cidade ainda adere à longa tradição brasileira de silêncio acerca da questão racial. Este artigo propõe iniciar uma exploração das raízes históricas desse fenômeno, remontando ao surgimento do silêncio sobre a questão racial na política urbana do Recife, Brasil, durante a primeira metade do século XX. O Recife foi eé um exemplo paradigmático do processo pelo qual uma cidade amplamente marcada por traços negros e africanos chegou a ser definida política e legalmente como um espaço pobre, subdesenvolvido e racialmente neutro, onde as desigualdades sociais originaram na exclusão capitalista, e não na escravidão e nas ideologias do racismo científico. Neste sentido, Recife lança luzes sobre a política urbana que se gerou sob a sombra do silêncio racial.More than half a century after racial prejudice became central to urban civil rights movements in the United States and South Africa, and decades after the emergence of Brazil’s contemporary Black movements, Brazil's internationally recognized body of rights-to-the-city legislation still adheres to the country's long historical tradition of racial silence. This article explores the historical roots of this phenomenon by focusing on the emergence of racial silence in Recife, Brazil during the first half of the 20th Century. Recife was and remains a paradigmatic example of the process through which a city marked by its Black and African roots came to be legally and politically defined as a poor, underdeveloped and racially neutral space, where social inequalities derived from capitalist exclusion rather than from slavery and scientific racism. As such, Recife'sexperience sheds light on the urban policies that were generated in the shadow of racial silence

Same-day initiation of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis among gay, bisexual, and other cisgender men who have sex with men and transgender women in Brazil, Mexico, and Peru (ImPrEP): a prospective, single-arm, open-label, multicentre implementation study.

BACKGROUND: Although gay, bisexual, and other cisgender men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women have the highest HIV burden in Latin America, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) implementation is poor. We aimed to assess the feasibility of same-day oral PrEP delivery in Brazil, Mexico, and Peru. METHODS: Implementation PrEP (ImPrEP) was a prospective, single-arm, open-label, multicentre PrEP implementation study conducted in Brazil (14 sites), Mexico (four sites), and Peru (ten sites). MSM and transgender women were eligible to participate if they were aged 18 years or older, HIV-negative, and reported one or more prespecified criteria. Enrolled participants received same-day initiation of daily oral PrEP (tenofovir disoproxil fumarate [300 mg] coformulated with emtricitabine [200 mg]). Follow-up visits were scheduled at week 4 and quarterly thereafter. We used logistic regression models to identify factors associated with early loss to follow-up (not returning after enrolment), PrEP adherence (medication possession ratio ≥0·6), and long-term PrEP engagement (attending three or more visits within 52 weeks). This study is registered at the Brazilian Registry of Clinical Trials, U1111-1217-6021. FINDINGS: From Feb 6, 2018, to June 30, 2021, 9979 participants were screened and 9509 were enrolled (Brazil n=3928, Mexico n=3288, and Peru n=2293). 543 (5·7%) participants were transgender women, 8966 (94·3%) were cisgender men, and 2481 (26·1%) were aged 18-24 years. There were 12 185·25 person-years of follow-up. 795 (8·4%) of 9509 participants had early loss to follow-up, 6477 (68·1%) of 9509 were adherent to PrEP, and 5783 (70·3%) of 8225 had long-term PrEP engagement. Transgender women (adjusted odds ratio 1·60, 95% CI 1·20-2·14), participants aged 18-24 years (1·80, 1·49-2·18), and participants with primary education (2·18, 1·29-3·68) had increased odds of early loss to follow-up. Transgender women (0·56, 0·46-0·70), participants aged 18-24 years (0·52, 0·46-0·58), and those with primary education (0·60, 0·40-0·91) had lower odds of PrEP adherence. Transgender women (0·56, 0·45-0·71), participants aged 18-24 years (0·56, 0·49-0·64), and those with secondary education (0·74, 0·68-0·86) had lower odds of long-term PrEP engagement. HIV incidence was 0·85 per 100 person-years (95% CI 0·70-1·03) and was higher for transgender women, participants from Peru, those aged 18-24 years, Black and mixed-race participants, and participants who were non-adherent to PrEP. INTERPRETATION: Same-day oral PrEP is feasible for MSM and transgender women in Latin America. Social and structural determinants of HIV vulnerability need to be addressed to fully achieve the benefits of PrEP. FUNDING: Unitaid, WHO, and Ministries of Health in Brazil, Mexico, and Peru. TRANSLATIONS: For the Portuguese and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section