5 research outputs found
Combining probability distributions of sea level variations and wave run-up to evaluate coastal flooding risks
Tools for estimating probabilities of flooding hazards caused by the
simultaneous effect of sea level and waves are needed for the secure planning
of densely populated coastal areas that are strongly vulnerable to climate
change. In this paper we present a method for combining location-specific
probability distributions of three different components: (1) long-term mean
sea level change, (2) short-term sea level variations and (3) wind-generated
waves. We apply the method at two locations in the Helsinki archipelago to
obtain total water level estimates representing the joint effect of the still
water level and the wave run-up for the present, 2050 and 2100. The
variability of the wave conditions between the study sites leads to a
difference in the safe building levels of up to 1 m. The rising mean
sea level in the Gulf of Finland and the uncertainty related to the
associated scenarios contribute notably to the total water levels for the
year 2100. A test with theoretical wave run-up distributions illustrates the
effect of the relative magnitude of the sea level variations and wave
conditions on the total water level. We also discuss our method's
applicability to other coastal regions.</p