Environmental Policy Update 2012: Development Strategies and Environmental Policy in East Africa

The seven chapters that comprise this report explore ways to integrate sustainability goals and objectives into Ethiopia's current development strategies

Spontaneous CP Violation at the Electroweak Scale

Utilizing results on the cosmology of anomalous discrete symmetries we show that models of spontaneous CP violation can in principle avoid the domain wall problem first pointed out by Zel'dovich, Kobzarev and Okun. A small but nonzero $\theta_{QCD}$ explicitly breaks CP and can lift the degeneracy of the two CP conjugate vacua through nonperturbative effects so that the domain walls become unstable, but survive to cosmologically interesting epochs. We explore the viability of spontaneous CP violation in the context of two Higgs models, and find that the invisible axion solution of the strong CP problem cannot be implemented without further extensions of the Higgs sector.Comment: 10 page

Hypercharge and the Cosmological Baryon Asymmetry

Stringent bounds on baryon and lepton number violating interactions have been derived from the requirement that such interactions, together with electroweak instantons, do not destroy a cosmological baryon asymmetry produced at an extremely high temperature in the big bang. While these bounds apply in specific models, we find that they are generically evaded. In particular, the only requirement for a theory to avoid these bounds is that it contain charged particles which, during a certain cosmological epoch, carry a non-zero hypercharge asymmetry. Hypercharge neutrality of the universe then dictates that the remaining particles must carry a compensating hypercharge density, which is necessarily shared amongst them so as to give a baryon asymmetry. Hence the generation of a hypercharge density in a sector of the theory forces the universe to have a baryon asymmetry.Comment: 12 pages plus 1 Postscript figure available upon request. LBL 3482

Spontaneous CP Violation, Small Instanton and Invisible Axion

I propose a variant invisible axion model of spontaneous CP violation at the electroweak scale without CP domain wall and `strong CP' problems. Both large size QCD and small size non-QCD instantons break CP and Peccei-Quinn symmetries, and render cosmologically harmful CP domain walls unstable. The decaying epoch depends on size of small instanton effects, and is around 100 eV if the current neutron electric dipole moment bound is maximally saturated. The model satisfies constraints from primordial D and He photo-dissociation and black hole formation, while producing cosmologically interesting size of gravitational waves and galaxy-scale density perturbations.Comment: 10 page

The gravitino coupling to broken gauge theories applied to the MSSM

We consider gravitino couplings in theories with broken gauge symmetries. In particular, we compute the single gravitino production cross section in W+ W- fusion processes. Despite recent claims to the contrary, we show that this process is always subdominant to gluon fusion processes in the high energy limit. The full calculation is performed numerically; however, we give analytic expressions for the cross section in the supersymmetric and electroweak limits. We also confirm these results with the use of the effective theory of goldstino interactions.Comment: 26 pages, 4 figure

Four reasons to prefer Bayesian analyses over significance testing

Inference using significance testing and Bayes factors is compared and contrasted in five case studies based on real research. The first study illustrates that the methods will often agree, both in motivating researchers to conclude that H1 is supported better than H0, and the other way round, that H0 is better supported than H1. The next four, however, show that the methods will also often disagree. In these cases, the aim of the paper will be to motivate the sensible evidential conclusion, and then see which approach matches those intuitions. Specifically, it is shown that a high-powered non-significant result is consistent with no evidence for H0 over H1 worth mentioning, which a Bayes factor can show, and, conversely, that a low-powered non-significant result is consistent with substantial evidence for H0 over H1, again indicated by Bayesian analyses. The fourth study illustrates that a high-powered significant result may not amount to any evidence for H1 over H0, matching the Bayesian conclusion. Finally, the fifth study illustrates that different theories can be evidentially supported to different degrees by the same data; a fact that P-values cannot reflect but Bayes factors can. It is argued that appropriate conclusions match the Bayesian inferences, but not those based on significance testing, where they disagree

Bayesian Inference in Processing Experimental Data: Principles and Basic Applications

This report introduces general ideas and some basic methods of the Bayesian probability theory applied to physics measurements. Our aim is to make the reader familiar, through examples rather than rigorous formalism, with concepts such as: model comparison (including the automatic Ockham's Razor filter provided by the Bayesian approach); parametric inference; quantification of the uncertainty about the value of physical quantities, also taking into account systematic effects; role of marginalization; posterior characterization; predictive distributions; hierarchical modelling and hyperparameters; Gaussian approximation of the posterior and recovery of conventional methods, especially maximum likelihood and chi-square fits under well defined conditions; conjugate priors, transformation invariance and maximum entropy motivated priors; Monte Carlo estimates of expectation, including a short introduction to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods.Comment: 40 pages, 2 figures, invited paper for Reports on Progress in Physic

Who will benefit more from low-dose alteplase in acute ischemic stroke?

Objectives: Controversy persists over the benefits of low-dose versus standard-dose intravenous alteplase for the treatment of acute ischemic stroke. We sought to determine individual patient factors that contribute to the risk–benefit balance of low-dose alteplase treatment. Methods: Observational study using data from the Enhanced Control of Hypertension and Thrombolysis Stroke Study (ENCHANTED), an international, randomized, open-label, blinded-endpoint trial that assessed low-dose (0.6 mg/kg) versus standard-dose (0.9 mg/kg) intravenous alteplase in acute ischemic stroke patients. Logistic regression models were used to estimate the benefit of good functional outcome (scores 0 or 1 on the modified Rankin scale at 90 days) and risk (symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage), under both regimens for individual patients. The net advantage for low-dose, relative to standard-dose, alteplase was calculated by dividing excess benefit by excess risk according to a combination of patient characteristics. The algorithms were externally validated in a nationwide acute stroke registry database in South Korea. Results: Patients with an estimated net advantage from low-dose alteplase, compared with without, were younger (mean age of 66 vs. 75 years), had lower systolic blood pressure (148 vs. 160 mm Hg), lower National Institute of Health Stroke Scale score (median of 8 vs. 16), and no atrial fibrillation (10.3% vs. 97.4%), diabetes mellitus (19.2% vs. 22.4%), or premorbid symptoms (defined by modified Rankin scale = 1) (16.3% vs. 37.8%). Conclusion: Use of low-dose alteplase may be preferable in acute ischemic stroke patients with a combination of favorable characteristics, including younger age, lower systolic blood pressure, mild neurological impairment, and no atrial fibrillation, diabetes mellitus, or premorbid symptoms.</p

Catecholaminergic signalling through thymic nerve fibres, thymocytes and stromal cells is dependent on both circulating and locally synthesized glucocorticoids

Glucocorticoids have been shown to modulate the expression of noradrenaline metabolizing enzymes and beta(2)- and alpha(1B)-adrenoceptors in a tissue- and cell- specific manner. In the thymus, apart from extensive sympathetic innervation, a regulatory network has been identified that encompasses catecholamine-containing non-lymphoid and lymphoid cells. We examined a putative role of adrenal- and thymus-derived glucocorticoids in modulation of rat thymic noradrenaline levels and adrenoceptor expression. Seven days postadrenalectomy, the thymic levels of mRNAs encoding tyrosine hydroxylase, dopamine beta-hydroxylase, monoamine oxidase-A and, consequently, noradrenaline were decreased. Catecholamine content was diminished in autofluorescent nerve fibres (judging by the intensity of fluorescence) and thymocytes (considering HPLC measurements of noradrenaline and the frequency of tyrosine hydroxylase-positive cells), while it remained unaltered in non-lymphoid autofluorescent cells. In addition, adrenalectomy diminished the thymocyte expression of beta(2)- and alpha(1B)-adrenoceptors at both mRNA and protein levels. Administration of ketoconazole (an inhibitor of glucocorticoid synthesis/action; 25 mg kg(-1) day(-1), s.c.) to glucocorticoid-deprived rats increased the thymic levels of tyrosine hydroxylase, dopamine beta-hydroxylase and, consequently, noradrenaline. The increased intensity of the autofluorescent cell fluorescence in ketoconazole-treated rats indicated an increase in their catecholamine content, and suggested differential glucocorticoid-mediated regulation of catecholamines in thymic lymphoid and non-lymphoid cells. In addition, ketoconazole increased the thymocyte expression of alpha(1B)-adrenoceptors. Thus, this study indicates that in the thymus, as in some other tissues, glucocorticoids not only act in concert with cateholamines, but they may modulate catecholamine action by tuning thymic catecholamine metabolism and adrenoceptor expression in a cell-specific manner. Additionally, the study indicates a role of thymus-derived glucocorticoids in this modulation