Large devaluations, foreign direct investment and exports : a speculative note

One side-effect of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09 was the resurgence of a debate over exchange rates. The conventional wisdom dictates that real-exchange rate adjustments are needed in order to bring about changes in trade balances across countries. However, the literature on the effect of exchange rate fluctuations and currency under-valuations on exports is surprisingly ambiguous. This note explores for the first time the potential role of foreign direct investment as an intermediate variable in the process of trade adjustment after large real-exchange rate changes. Real-exchange rate devaluations might result in increases in foreign direct investment inflows, as investors can take advantage of changes in the foreign-currency value of domestic assets. If so, the response of exports will depend to some extent on the nature of such foreign direct investment inflows, with inflows motivated by"horizontal"foreign direct investment associated with negligible changes in export growth after devaluation. The author utilizes quarterly data on real effective exchange rates, foreign direct investment inflows and exports to explore the effects of large devaluations (defined as the largest observed quarterly real effective exchange rate devaluation) on foreign direct investment and exports from 1990 to 2010. The admittedly speculative evidence suggests that there were heterogeneous experiences regarding the timing and magnitude of subsequent changes in foreign direct investment and exports, but on average foreign direct investment inflows tended to precede export surges within two year horizons.Debt Markets,Economic Theory&Research,Emerging Markets,Currencies and Exchange Rates,Foreign Direct Investment

The business of product innovation : international empirical evidence

It is so widely recognized that innovation is a key driver of economic growth that it is cliché to say so. This article studies product innovation by firms with data from 68 countries, covering more than 25,000 firms in eight manufacturing sectors. The author assesses the predictions of inter-disciplinary research on innovation by firms. The econometric evidence suggests that globalization and local knowledge increase the likelihood that firms will introduce new products. By contrast, domestic regulatory impediments to competition are not robustly correlated with product innovation.E-Business,Innovation,Microfinance,Education for Development (superceded),Statistical&Mathematical Sciences

Income Wealth, and Socialization in Argentina

The data used in this study provides individual-level information about the population’s participation in social organizations and its willingness to trust members of their community. Argentina’s participation rate is close to 20%. The country’s trust ratSocial Capital, non-economic income and wealth effects

Open Questions about the Link Between Natural Resources and Economic Growth: Sachs and Warner Revisited.

What makes the work of Sachs and Warner (1995a, 1997a, 1997b, 1999) distinct from previous pessimistic arguments about the growth potential of natural resources is their reliance on econometric analysis. Our aim is to take the authors’ model specification as given, but we ask the following three questions:1. Is the negative effect of natural resource exports (as a share of GDP) sensitive to the time period used in the analysis? 2. Is this result sensitive to unknown omitted variables? 3. Is this result sensitive to endogeneity problems that afflict the traditional cross-sectional growth regressions? The main findings are that the SW result concerning the alleged negative effect of natural resource exports on growth does not pass the test of time, the NRX effect is probably due to unaccounted countryspecific effects, and dealing with endogeneity issues does not recover the SW result. However, we find that export revenue concentration does have quite a robust negative effect on economic growth. And ab out 50% of this effect is due to the negative correlation between export concentration and intraindustry trade and a positive correlation between export concentration and volatility of the real effective exchange rate.

Diversification, innovation, and imitation inside the Global Technological Frontier

Recent research highlights the relationship between economic development and productive diversification, which may be hindered by market failures. After identifying stages of diversification in disaggregated export data, the authors develop a metric for the flows of export"discoveries,"or inside-the-frontier innovations in developing countries. They then explore the empirical relationship between economic development and (1) inside-the-frontier-innovation as reflected by the introduction of new export products, (2) export diversification measured by an index of export-revenue concentration, and (3) on-the-frontier innovation as reflected in patents. The data suggest, unsurprisingly, that inside-the-frontier innovation is more common among poor countries than among industrial economies. Overall export diversification increases at low levels of development but declines with development after a high-income point, whereas patenting activity rises exponentially with development. The data also suggest that the relationship between the frequency of export discoveries and economic development is not due to changes in the industrial composition of exports. The authors use a simple model of innovation and imitation to test the hypothesis that the threat of imitation inhibits the discovery of new exports. Econometric evidence suggests that the frequency of export discoveries across countries rises with the returns of export activities (proxied by exogenous export growth during the sample period), but the magnitude of this effect increases with barriers to entry. The count-data estimations deal with unobserved international heterogeneity, and the results are robust to various changes in the specification of the empirical model. This finding supports the hypothesisthat market failures inhibit inside-the-frontier innovation.Economic Theory&Research,Markets and Market Access,Water Resources Assessment,Achieving Shared Growth,Airports and Air Services

Innovation and export portfolios

This paper examines the link between sectoral concentration and overall performance in the search for on-the-frontier innovations, inside-the-frontier innovations, and export booms. It extends the literature by increasing country coverage and the types of search processes considered, and by focusing on the links with overall performance in these search processes. After controlling for the necessary relationships as well as fixed effects at the country/commodity group level, the paper finds a clear negative relationship between the concentration of innovation portfolios and performance: countries that are the most successful in these search processes have their successes spread across a broader range of industries than those with poorer performance. Furthermore, the search for export booms exhibits the least amount of sectoral concentration and path-dependence. These findings suggest that public support for these processes need not be focused in a narrow range of sectors, and modeling of these processes in theoretical work, particularly in the search for export booms, should be of a stochastic flavor.Education for Development (superceded),Economic Theory&Research,Innovation,Achieving Shared Growth,Technology Industry

Trade structure and growth

Lederman and Maloney examine the empirical relationships between trade structure and economic growth, particularly the influence of natural resource abundance, export concentration, and intra-industry trade. They test the robustness of these relationships across proxies, control variables, and estimation techniques. The authors find trade variables to be important determinants of growth, especially natural resource abundance and export concentration. In contrast with much of the recent literature, natural resource abundance appears to have a positive effect on growth, whereas export concentration hampers growth, even after controlling for physical and human capital accumulation, among other factors.Economic Conditions and Volatility,Environmental Economics&Policies,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Economic Theory&Research,Public Health Promotion,Economic Theory&Research,Achieving Shared Growth,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Growth,Inequality

Research and development (R&D) and development

Lederman and Maloney trace the evolution of research and development (R&D) expenditures along the development process using a new global panel data set. They show that R&D effort measured as a share of GDP rises with development at an increasing rate. The authors examine how four groups of countries from Latin America, Asia, advanced manufacturing exporters, and advanced natural resource-abundant countries fare relative to the predicted development trajectory. Latin America generally underperforms as do some countries in Asia and Europe, but their striking finding is that some-Finland, Israel, the Republic of Korea, and Taiwan (China)-have radically deviated from the predicted trajectory and displayed impressive R&D takeoffs. The authors ask whether these countries overinvest in R&D but find that the high estimates of the social rates of return probably justify this effort. Moreover, the returns to R&D decline with per capita GDP. The authors attempt to explain why rich countries invest more in R&D than poor countries. They conclude that financial depth, protection of intellectual property rights, government capacity to mobilize resources, and the quality of research institutions are the main reasons why R&D efforts rise with the level of development.Scientific Research&Science Parks,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Decentralization,Agricultural Knowledge&Information Systems,Economic Theory&Research,Science Education,Scientific Research&Science Parks,Environmental Economics&Policies,Education and Digital Divide

Intellectual property rights, human capital and the incidence of R&D expenditures

Numerous studies predict that developing countries with low human capital may not benefit from the strengthening of intellectual property rights. The authors extend an influential theoretical framework to highlight the role of intellectual property rights in the process of innovation and structural change. The resulting theory is consistent with a stylized fact that appears in the data, namely that countries with poor intellectual-property protection may accumulate human capital without a corresponding increase in research and development investment as a share of national income. The model predicts that without minimum intellectual-property protection, additional education may result in more imitation rather than innovation. The preponderance of the econometric evidence presented in this paper suggests that interactions between human capital and intellectual property rights determine global patterns of research and development effort, and intellectual property rights tend to raise the effect of education on the incidence of research and development.Economic Theory&Research,E-Business,Debt Markets,Labor Policies,Knowledge for Development

Entrepreneurship and the extensive margin in export growth : a microeconomic accounting of Costa Rica's export growth during 1997-2007

The literature on the correlation between exports and economic development runs deep into the history of economic thought and permeates policy debates. This paper studies the microeconomic structure of export growth in Costa Rica, with special emphasis on the extensive margin of trade, encompassing new exporting firms, new products, and new export markets, as well as the unit values of new versus incumbent products. The data suggest that few new firms survive the test of exporting -- more than 40 percent of firms exit export activities after one year -- and this firm turnover is associated with a steady deterioration of export unit values (prices). Furthermore, most new export products are associated with product switching by incumbent exporting firms. The typical new product introduced by incumbent firms tended to be priced at about 90 percent of the unit values of incumbent products. In contrast, the usual suspected obstacles to export growth, such as the inability of small firms to enter exporting activities or to grow their exports, appear to be important sources of export growth. In fact, the smallest exporting firms experienced the fastest growth in their export values. Some of these results are compared with those from other countries that have been examined in related literature.Economic Theory&Research,Markets and Market Access,Airports and Air Services,Microfinance,Tax Law