Learning to manage external constraints : Belgian monetary policy during the Bretton Woods era (1944-1971)

This paper analyses the Belgian monetary and exchange rate policies at the time of Bretton Woods. It sheds light on the groping adjustment process by which internal economic policies are hit by or adapt to the external constraints. In 1944, an ambitious monetary reform laid down the economic policy objectives that remained in force for two decades, namely price stability and strong currency. However, we point out different incompatibilities between these objectives and the economic context of the 1950s and 1960s that could have negative consequences on Belgian economic growth?. More precisely, the long lasting European currencies inconvertibility (1944-1958) contradicted the orthodox approach of the monetary policy favoured by the Central Bank. When total convertability was finally achieved, the huge increase of capital movements led to a progressive loss of the monetary policy autonomy, despite the setting up of a two-tier exchange market, which can be viewed as an institutional innovation responding to new constraints.Monetary policy, Bretton Woods, Currency inconvertibility, Capital movements, Two-tier exchange market

The Forces of Urbanization under Varying Natural Increase and Migration Rates

This paper is the third and last of a series seeking to shed some light on the question of whether a nation's urban population grows mostly by rural-urban migration or by natural increase. Again, the discussion evolves around an analytical study of the Keyfitz model of urbanization (Keyfitz, 1978) and the Rogers components-of-change model (Rogers, 1968) applied to a rural-urban system. Here, in contrast to the preceding papers in which rates of natural increase and migration were constant, the present paper allows these rates to vary. A larger part of the analysis is based on the Keyfitz model, shown earlier to be less meaningful than the alternative model but lending itself to an easier tractability when rates are allowed to vary. In particular, the Keyfitz model is used in an attempt to connect the variations of rural-urban (net) migration rates to economic changes through a simple scheme of wage differentials, later supplemented by the Todaro hypothesis

Between Conflicting Worlds: Female Exiles in Jean Rhys's Voyage in the Dark and Joan Riley's The Unbelonging

peer reviewe

Calibrating Alonso's General Theory of Movement: the Case of Inter-Provincial Migration Flows in Canada

First, it is shown that Alonso's general theory of movement relies on a standard doubly-constrained spatial interaction model which subsumes the usual gravity and entropy-derived formulations. Such a finding then suggests the use of a biproportional adjustment method (RAS method) to adequately estimate the systemic variables specified in the underlying model. This eventually leads to the development of a complete and precise methodology for calibrating the Alonso model. This methodology is illustrated with the help of an application to data on interprovincial migration in Canada

An Employment Equation for Belgium

Economic theory considers economic growth and wage costs as crucial determinants in the process of job creation. In this paper, we try to quantify the relationship that exists between these variables in Belgium. Our objective being mainly the use of the empirical model for forecasting purposes, we use a V AR model to enable us to apply statistical tools to test some possible constraints within a loose model. We analyse the relationship at three levels: one national and two sectoral.Employment growth, long-run equilibrium, VAR model

Choices in the Construction of Multiregional Life Tables

The methods of multiregional life table construction are explored through an investigation of a tree of choices with respect to approach, data, rates definition, probability definition, and stationary population or life-years-lived calculation. Two principal approaches are discussed: the movement approach and the transition approach, although a third label "hybrid approach" is used to characterize many of the developments in the field to date. Methods are applied to two population systems, that of the Netherlands, where moves data are available, and that of Great Britain, where the data on migration come in the transition form. The discussion of methods and the computer runs of the life table model lead to a clear set of recommended choices for the would-be life table constructor. The fairly simple and direct transition approach using migrant data measured by a five-year question is our preferred choice. The paper ends by speculating on how solutions to the unresolved problems of multiregional population analysis might be sought

Increment-Decrement Life Tables: A Comment

In a recent paper, R. Schoen poses the problem of constructing a set of k interrelated increment-decrement life tables but presents explicit solutions only for two-table and three-table models. Here, we derive the k-table analogue of the single-table formula (Schoen's Eq. 11) and illustrate its use in a problem area not included in Schoen's list of potential applications, namely, multiregional life table construction. In this particular application, increments are due to in-migration and decrements result from out-migration