Learning to manage external constraints : Belgian monetary policy during the Bretton Woods era (1944-1971)

This paper analyses the Belgian monetary and exchange rate policies at the time of Bretton Woods. It sheds light on the groping adjustment process by which internal economic policies are hit by or adapt to the external constraints. In 1944, an ambitious monetary reform laid down the economic policy objectives that remained in force for two decades, namely price stability and strong currency. However, we point out different incompatibilities between these objectives and the economic context of the 1950s and 1960s that could have negative consequences on Belgian economic growth?. More precisely, the long lasting European currencies inconvertibility (1944-1958) contradicted the orthodox approach of the monetary policy favoured by the Central Bank. When total convertability was finally achieved, the huge increase of capital movements led to a progressive loss of the monetary policy autonomy, despite the setting up of a two-tier exchange market, which can be viewed as an institutional innovation responding to new constraints.Monetary policy, Bretton Woods, Currency inconvertibility, Capital movements, Two-tier exchange market

Rural-Urban Migration, Urbanization, and Economic Development

This paper presents an analytical expression of the rural net outmigration rate compatible with a logistic evolution of the part of the population that is urban in a rural-urban population system. The formula obtained represents a function consistent with the mobility revolution hypothesis of Zelinsky (1971): the rural net migration rate first increases, then passes through a maximum, and finally decreases toward zero. In addition, such a formula is used to determine the dates at which, in selected developing countries, the rural net outmigration rate will start to decline; and to estimate the degree of economic development beyond which the rural net outmigration rate levels off

Calibrating Alonso's General Theory of Movement: the Case of Inter-Provincial Migration Flows in Canada

First, it is shown that Alonso's general theory of movement relies on a standard doubly-constrained spatial interaction model which subsumes the usual gravity and entropy-derived formulations. Such a finding then suggests the use of a biproportional adjustment method (RAS method) to adequately estimate the systemic variables specified in the underlying model. This eventually leads to the development of a complete and precise methodology for calibrating the Alonso model. This methodology is illustrated with the help of an application to data on interprovincial migration in Canada

Une analyse log-linéaire des courants migratoires interprovinciaux : Canada, 1961-1983

Cet article présente une analyse approfondie des caractéristiques spatio-temporelles de la migration interprovinciale au Canada réalisée sur la base de données longitudinales tirées du fichier des allocations familiales. La méthodologie utilisée fait appel au modèle log-linéaire sous-jacent à la notion de tableau de contingence, lequel modèle autorise une représentation simple des données observées à l’aide de paramètres caractéristiques des diverses interactions possibles entre les variables concernées (variables d’origine, de destination et de temps dans le cas présent). Dans une première étape, un examen comparé de la performance des diverses variantes non saturées (variantes où manquent un ou plusieurs des paramètres pertinents) permet de clarifier l’influence globale de chacune des variables. Dans une deuxième étape, cette influence est précisée à l’aide d’une investigation détaillée des paramètres relatifs à la variante de quasi-indépendance, c’est-à-dire, la variante où seul l’effet d’interaction s’exerçant entre les trois variables est ignoré. Outre la suggestion que les variables d’origine et de destination ne sont pas indépendantes (résultat qui confirme la nécessité de mettre l’accent sur les courants migratoires dans l’étude de la migration), cette investigation met en avant quelques conclusions sur les variations temporelles de la migration interprovinciale.This article presents an in-depth analysis of spatial-temporal characteristics of interprovincial migration in Canada carried out with longitudinal data obtained from the family allowance file. The methodology used calls on the log-linear model underlying the notion of the contingency table. This model permits a simple representation of the observed data, with the aid of parameters typical of the many possible interactions between the variables in question (variables of origin, destination and period in the present case). First, a comparative examination of the performance of several unsaturated variants (variants where one or more pertinent parameters are missing) allows clarification of the overall influence of each variable. Second, this influence is further specified with the aid of a detailed investigation of the parameters that are relative to the quasi-independence variance, that is to say, the variance where only the effect of interaction between the three variables is ignored. Together with the suggestion that the variables of origin and destination are not independent (a result that confirms the need to emphasize interregional streams in the study of migration), this investigation sets forth some conclusions about the temporal variations of interprovincial migration.El presente artículo ofrece un análisis minucioso de las características espaciales y temporales de la migración entre las provincias de Canadá, sustentandose en datos de carácter longitudinal provenientes del archivo de Subsidios a la Familia. La metodología que se llevó a cabo está basada en el modelo logo-lineal subyacente a la noción de tabla de contingencia, dicho modelo permite elaborar una representación simple de los datos observados con ayuda de parámétros característicos de las diversas interacciones que se dan entre las variables en juego (variables de origen, de destino y de tiempo, en este estudio). En una primera etapa, se hace un examen comparativo de la acción de las diversas variantes no saturadas (variantes en donde faltan uno o varios de los parámetros pertinentes) Io que permite esclarecer la influencia global de cada una de las variables. En una segunda etapa, esta influencia es especificada gracias al estudio pormenorizado de los parámetros relativos a la variante de casi-independencia, o sea la variante en donde únicamente el efecto de interacción que se da entre las tres variables no se toma en cuenta. Aparte de sugerir que las variables de origen y de destino no son independientes (resultado que confirma la necesidad de hacer hincapié en el estudio de las corrientes migratorias al tratar la migración), la presente investigación sienta algunas conclusiones acerca de las fluctuaciones temporales de la migración interprovincial

Between Conflicting Worlds: Female Exiles in Jean Rhys's Voyage in the Dark and Joan Riley's The Unbelonging

peer reviewe

The Forces of Urbanization under Varying Natural Increase and Migration Rates

This paper is the third and last of a series seeking to shed some light on the question of whether a nation's urban population grows mostly by rural-urban migration or by natural increase. Again, the discussion evolves around an analytical study of the Keyfitz model of urbanization (Keyfitz, 1978) and the Rogers components-of-change model (Rogers, 1968) applied to a rural-urban system. Here, in contrast to the preceding papers in which rates of natural increase and migration were constant, the present paper allows these rates to vary. A larger part of the analysis is based on the Keyfitz model, shown earlier to be less meaningful than the alternative model but lending itself to an easier tractability when rates are allowed to vary. In particular, the Keyfitz model is used in an attempt to connect the variations of rural-urban (net) migration rates to economic changes through a simple scheme of wage differentials, later supplemented by the Todaro hypothesis