Corn Price Behavior – Volatility transmission during the boom on futures Markets

Since 2000 a number of factors impacted agricultural markets drastically. Among these are structural changes in global demand and repeated supply constraints that supported the observed positive development of agricultural prices. Given the increasingly interdependent global markets, the question arises of in how far an isolated view of a single market, when analysing price volatility, is sufficient? The paper is a contribution to the debate on the recent commodity price bubble and the relationship among commodity futures markets for agricultural raw materials. More particularly, the transmission of price volatility between commodity future markets is analysed. The background question is whether and to what extent the volatility of agricultural commodity prices at different market places have been transferred during the drastic price changes of 2008. In this analysis the volatility of the maize future price at three different commodity futures exchange is modelled as a multivariate GARCH - process. By doing so, interactions between stock markets in different venues are incorporated. The results of the econometric analysis are discussed against the background of the developments in agricultural and biofuel policy.Commodity Futures, Corn, Time Series, Price volatility transmission, multivariate GARCH, Agricultural and Food Policy,

The impact of the mid-term review on the German agricultural sector

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A Game Theoretic Analysis of the Conditions of Knowledge Transfer by New Employees in Companies

The availability of knowledge is an essential factor for an economy in global competition. Companies realise innovations by creating and implementing new knowledge. Sources of innovative ideas are partners in the production network but also new employees coming from another company or academia. Based on a model by HECKATHORN (1996) the conditions of efficient knowledge transfer in a team are analysed. Offering knowledge to a colleague can not be controlled directly by the company due to information asymmetries. Thus the management has to provide incentives which motivate the employees to act in favour of the company by providing their knowledge to the rest of the team and likewise to learn from colleagues. The game theoretic analysis aims at investigating how to arrange these incentives efficiently. Several factors are relevant, especially the individual costs of participating in the transfer. These consist mainly of the existing absorptive capacity and the working atmosphere. The model is a 2x2 game but is at least partly generalised on more players. The relevance of the adequate team size is shown: more developers may increase the total profit of an innovation (before paying the involved people) but when additional wages are paid to each person a greater team decreases the remaining company profit. A further result is that depending on the cost structure perfect knowledge transfer is not always best for the profit of the company. These formal results are consistent with empirical studies to the absorptive capacity and the working atmosphere.Die Verfügbarkeit von Wissen und die Fähigkeit zur schnellen Anwendung von wissenschaftlichen Neuerungen stellen heute einen zentralen Erfolgsfaktor von Volkswirtschaften dar. Unternehmen machen mit Wissensgenerierung und -umsetzung Innovationen. Anregungen dazu kommen von Partnern im Produktionsnetzwerk, aber auch von neuen Mitarbeitern, die aus der Wissenschaft oder einem anderen Unternehmen in das Unternehmen kommen. Auf einem Modell von HECKATHORN (1996) basierend werden die Bedingungen effizienten Wissenstransfers in einem Team untersucht. Da Wissensweitergabe aufgrung von Informationsasymmetrien nicht kontrolliert werden kann, muß das Unternehmen entsprechende Anreize setzen. Diese lassen sich spieltheoretisch ermitteln. Mehrere Faktoren spielen eine Rolle, besonders wichtig sind die Kosten des einzelnen, die ihm bei der Teilnahme am Wissenstransfer entstehen. Das Absorptionsvermögen und die Arbeitsatmosphäre bestimmen die Kosten in erster Linie. Das Modell ist ein 2x2-Spiel, das anschließend teilweise auf mehrere Spieler verallgemeinert wird. Die Relevanz der Teamgröße wird gezeigt und das vollständiger Wissenstransfer bei hohen individuellen Kosten nicht unbedingt gewinnmaximierend für das Unternehmen ist. Diese formalen Ergebnisse unterstützen vorhandene empirische zu Absortionsvermögen und Arbeitsatmosphäre

Technology transfer offices and university patenting: a review

This policy paper on science-industry technology transfer has four emphases: the rationale of recent changes in German science policy, the contribution of diverse transfer channels to economic development as well as the role of IPR in that context, the differences in the institutional framework between Europe and USA regarding academic patenting, and the organisational design of technology transfer offices (TTOs). The extensive literature review highlights the importance of TTOs, the necessity of supporting manifold transfer channels, and continuous government funding of intermediaries. Important open research questions are the relative importance of transfer channels and the optimal size of TTOs

Supply Control or Social Control? Coca, Eradication and Development in the Andes

For over two decades the US has funded repressive forced coca eradication in Peru, Colombia and Bolivia to reduce the illegal cocaine trade. These policies have never met their stated goals and have generated violence and poverty. In 2006 Bolivia definitively broke with the US anti-narcotics model, replacing the militarized eradication of coca crops with a community-based coca control strategy. The program substantially reduced the coca crop while providing subsistence and citizenship for farmers and respecting human rights. This article outlines the elements of the Bolivian initiative that ensure its functioning and considers to what extent they can be translated to other contexts. More broadly this paper draws attention to the fundamental inability of supply side control initiatives to slow the illegal drug trade, which is driven by continuing demand and exorbitant profits

GAPsi simulations updated baseline and EU enlargement under the Mid-Term-Review scenario

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Renewable energy - new forces in global ethanol trade?

The paper presents an extended gravity equation application for the global trade with ethanol. The background and different attempts for a theoretical foundation of the standard approach are discussed. The econometric work takes regional integration schemes into account, as well as the influence of the production factor agricultural land and the level of oil prices on the world market. Results indicate that global bilateral trade flows of ethanol can be explained by a set of comprehensive explanatory variables, including regional agreements and the price level of oil. From a global perspective the EU effect on trade flows is trade diverting as the regional agreement reduces the linkage to world markets and increases the intra-regional level of trade with ethanol. The analysis over time however indicates that the decoupling of the EU ethanol market from the world market is decreasing, potentially reflecting demand increases within the EU.gravity equation, bilateral trade flows, trade with renewable energy, biofuels, and econometric estimation, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

University-owned Patents in West and East Germany and the Abolition of the Professors' Privilege

This paper analyses the development of universities' patent applications in Germany before and after the abolition of the 'professors' privilege' in 2002. By means of a database with all patent applications of German universities with professors among the inventors (1990-2006), systematic changes in the trend are investigated. There are contrasts in the patenting patterns of universities with or without long patenting experience. A structural break at the point of the new legislation is found only for universities without patent activities in the past. This indicates the importance of collecting patenting experience and that the amount of patents is path-dependent

EU ENLARGEMENT - A NEW DIMENSION

Enlarging the EU presents a tremendous effort with obstacles for old and new member states especially in the agricultural sector. In this paper, impacts of a new accession round were analyzed with the help of the comparative-static general equilibrium model GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project). The standard version was extended to allow for a better representation of specific instruments of the Common Agriculture Policy and the EU budget. To capture detailed effects in new member states, simulations were carried out for 12 candidate countries, the EU-15 and the rest of the world. As for products the focus lies on agriculture. Scenarios include an enlargement with and without the transfer of direct payments in the new member states, according to the proposal of the EU commission from January 2002. Simulations in a post-Agenda 2000 environment led to heterogeneous country specific impacts in the accession countries whereas the changes within EU-15 and the rest of the world were negligible. Due to adjustments in tariffs, trade balances of the new member states were deteriorating while welfare effects are positive. Transfer of direct payments led to more pronounced effects, especially with regard to output and trade. Without direct payments accession countries would be net contributors to the EU budget. This would change when they become eligible for this subsidy. In general, the analysis shows the importance of a country specific perspective.EU enlargement, Common Agricultural Policy, EU budget, GE-modeling, Political Economy, D58, E62, F15, O52, Q18,