A water grid for the UK

PhD ThesisThe water supply infrastructure systems of the UK depend on a number of sources of water vulnerable to the impacts of climate change; however, the extents of these impacts on the performance of the water supply infrastructure systems are highly uncertain. While contemporary analyses exist, they are inappropriate for the projection of impacts and the supporting of decision-making at large spatiotemporal scales. This study appraises existing analyses of the impact of climate change on the water resources of the UK through a review of existing data and methods, addressing them via the development of a powerful probabilistic modelling framework. Consisting of models of climate variables, hydrology, and water supply infrastructure, the framework is suitable for the simulation of current and projected future water resource infrastructure systems under uncertain future conditions and at relevant strategic spatiotemporal scales. The study yields probabilistic projections of meteorological, hydrological and water resources drought severity, frequency and duration, and demonstrates the framework in a performance comparison between the existing configuration and the same system augmented with a ‘Water Grid’ facilitating the sharing of water resource. This study makes several conclusions. Firstly, that existing models of the impacts of climate change on the water supply infrastructure system of the UK are inadequate, restricted in their fitness for purpose by their roles within the prevailing regulatory framework and the data and methods available. Secondly, the UK is likely to experience progressively fewer meteorological drought events of shorter duration and increased severity, resulting in substantial reductions in river flows both on average and at the 5th percentile, and leading to substantial increases in water resources drought severity and duration over the 21st Century not wholly mitigable in the east and south of England via inter-basin transfers from Wales and the midlands

Cooling water for Britain's future electricity supply

Trends in the locations and technologies of UK electricity generation plant suggest that demand for cooling water abstractions from rivers will decrease in the coming decades, unless there is widespread uptake of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS). CCS may prove to be essential if the UK is to achieve its carbon dioxide and greenhouse gas emission targets. ‘Decarbonisation’ strategies that rely on CCS are therefore potentially at risk of not having sufficient cooling water in periods of low river flows. In this paper, regional freshwater demands for cooling water are assessed against regional freshwater availability at low flows in a scenario of medium climate change. In the strategy with high CCS, demands for water greatly exceed current and future availability in the north-west (NW) England, Humber, East (E) Midlands and Thames regions. These risks can be mitigated by increasing the penetration of hybrid cooling systems or shifting generating capacity to estuaries or the coast. The former could reduce national water use by up to 35%, whereas applying the latter in the NW England, Humber and E Midlands regions offers nationwide reductions from 30 to 50%

Assessing the long-term performance of cross-sectoral strategies for national infrastructure

National infrastructure systems (energy, transport, digital communications, water, and waste) provide essential services to society. Although for the most part these systems developed in a piecemeal way, they are now an integrated and highly interdependent “system of systems.” However, understanding the long-term performance trajectory of national infrastructure has proved to be very difficult because of the complexity of these systems (in physical and institutional terms) and because there is little tradition of thinking cross-sectorally about infrastructure system performance. Here, a methodology is proposed for analyzing national multisectoral infrastructure systems performance in the context of uncertain futures, incorporating interdependencies in demand across sectors. Three contrasting strategies are considered for infrastructure provision (capacity intensive, capacity constrained, and decentralized) and multiattribute performance metrics are analyzed in the context of low, medium, and high demographic and economic growth scenarios. The approach is illustrated using Great Britain and provides the basis for the development and testing of long-term strategies for national infrastructure provision. It is especially applicable to mature industrial economics with a large stock of existing infrastructure and challenges of future infrastructure provision

Cooling water for Britain's future electricity supply

Trends in the locations and technologies of UK electricity generation plant suggest that demand for cooling water abstractions from rivers will decrease in the coming decades, unless there is widespread uptake of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS). CCS may prove to be essential if the UK is to achieve its carbon dioxide and greenhouse gas emission targets. ‘Decarbonisation’ strategies that rely on CCS are therefore potentially at risk of not having sufficient cooling water in periods of low river flows. In this paper, regional freshwater demands for cooling water are assessed against regional freshwater availability at low flows in a scenario of medium climate change. In the strategy with high CCS, demands for water greatly exceed current and future availability in the north-west (NW) England, Humber, East (E) Midlands and Thames regions. These risks can be mitigated by increasing the penetration of hybrid cooling systems or shifting generating capacity to estuaries or the coast. The former could reduce national water use by up to 35%, whereas applying the latter in the NW England, Humber and E Midlands regions offers nationwide reductions from 30 to 50%