Unemployment, hysteresis and transition

We quantify the degree of persistence in unemployment rates of transition countries using a variety of methods benchmarked against the EU. In part of the paper, we work with the concept of linear "Hysteresis" as described by the presence of unit roots in unemployment. Since this is potentially a narrow definition, we also take into account the existence of structural breaks and non-linear dynamics in unemployment. Finally, we examine whether CEECs' unemployment presents features of multiple equilibria: if it remains locked into a new level whenever a structural change occurs. Our findings show that, in general, we can reject the unit root hypothesis after controlling for structural changes and business cycle effects, but we can observe the presence of a high and low unemployment equilibria. The speed of adjustment is faster for CEECs than the EU, although CEECs tend to move more frequently between equilibria. JEL Classification: E24, C22, C23Hysteresis, Markov switching, Transition, Unemployment, Unit Root

Accumulation, Innovation and Catching-Up: An Extended Cumulative Growth Model

This paper presents an extended model of cumulative growth in which the effects of innovation and catching-up are considered. The effect of innovation adds another source of cumulative growth to that of the traditional models and allows for the consideration of the importance of non-price factors as determinants of international competitiveness. Catching-up, on the other hand, is the major force leading to convergence in productivity due to the effect of the diffusion of technology. The model allows for analysing whether cumulative forces may lead to stable growth and whether this solution generates convergence in productivity levels. The structural model is then tested for a set of OECD countries over the period 1965 to 1994 and the results are used for carrying out the comparative dynamics. The results support the view that both the Verdoorn-Kaldor mechanism, and the induced effect of innovation on export performance, are important cumulative forces that interact with the effect of catching-up towards a convergent pattern of growth

Unemployment Hysteresis in the US and the EU: a Panel Data Approach

This paper applies the panel unit root test proposed by Im, Pesaran and Shin (1997) to test for unemployment hysteresis in the US states and the EU countries against the alternative of a natural rate. The results show that hysteresis for the EU and the natural rate for the US states are the most plausible hypotheses

Cumulative Growth and the Catching-up Debate from a Dis-equilibrium Standpoint

This paper presents an overview of the literature on 'cumulative growth'. It is argued that, independently of the 'new' growth theory, these models have achieved the nature of 'endogenous' growth models. Their main differences, however, lie in the assumptions about the equilibrium prevailing in the economy. Cumulative growth models do not assume a general equilibrium setting and, thus, the main driving force of growth is demand. Although the natural rate of growth is endogenous (through the effect of induced productivity growth), it can be shown that these models are compatible with a wide set of outcomes concerning the catching-up and convergence issue. In order to do this, we present a model of cumulative causation that, overcoming some of the weaknesses of previous models, allows for catching-up from followers to leader to occur. We also show how the induced productivity growth effect may lead to a faster catching-up rate, contrary to the popular result that it necessarily leads to divergence

Identifying the elasticity of substitution with biased technical change

Despite being critical parameters in many economic fields, the received wisdom, in theoretical and empirical literatures, states that joint identification of the elasticity of capital-labor substitution and technical bias is infeasible. This paper challenges that pessimistic interpretation. Putting the new approach of "normalized" production functions at the heart of a Monte Carlo analysis we identify the conditions under which identification is feasible and robust. The key result is that the jointly modeling the production function and first-order conditions is superior to single-equation approaches in terms of robustly capturing production and technical parameters, especially when merged with "normalization". Our results will have fundamental implications for production-function estimation under non-neutral technical change, for understanding the empirical relevance of normalization and the variability underlying past empirical studies. JEL Classification: C22, E23, O30, 051Constant Elasticity of Substitution, Factor Income share, Factor-Augmenting Technical Change, Identification, Monte Carlo, Normalization

In dubio pro CES - Supply estimation with mis-specified technical change

Capital-labor substitution and total factor productivity (TFP) estimates are essential features of growth and income distribution models. In the context of a Monte Carlo exercise embodying balanced and near balanced growth, we demonstrate that the estimation of the substitution elasticity can be substantially biased if the form of technical progress is misspecified. For some parameter values, when factor shares are relatively constant, there could be an inherent bias towards Cobb-Douglas. The implied estimates of TFP growth also yield substantially different results depending on the specification of technical progress. A Constant Elasticity of Substitution production function is then estimated within a “normalized” system approach for the US economy over 1960:1–2004:4. Results show that the estimated substitution elasticity tends to be significantly lower using a factor augmenting specification (well below one). We are able to reject Hicks-, Harrod- and Solow-neutral specifications in favor of general factor augmentation with a non-negligible capital-augmenting component. Finally, we draw some important lessons for production and supply-side estimation. JEL Classification: C15, C32, E23, O33, O51Balanced Growth, Constant Elasticity of Substitution, Factor Income share, Factor-Augmenting Technical Change, Technical Progress Neutrality

On causal relationships between exchange rates and fundamentals: Better than you think

This note revisits the temporal causality between exchange rates and fundamentals put forward by Engel and West (2005). We analyze the causal link within multivariate VARs by making use of the concept of multi-step causality. Our results show that, considering information content beyond one-period ahead, the causal link between exchange rates and fundamentals is stronger than previously reported. We find Granger-causality running from exchange rates to fundamentals at some horizon in 49% of our tests and running from fundamentals to exchange rates in 59% of them

German wage moderation and European imbalances: Feeding the Global VAR with theor

German labor market reforms in the 1990s and 2000s are generally believed to have driven the large increase in the dispersion of current account balances in the Euro Area. We investigate this hypothesis quantitatively. We develop an open economy New Keynesian model with search and matching frictions from which we derive robust sign restrictions for a wage bargaining shock. We then impose these restrictions on a Global VAR consisting of Germany and 8 EMU countries to identify a wage bargaining shock in Germany. Our results show that, although the German current account was significantly affected by wage bargaining shocks, their contribution to European current account imbalances was negligible. We conclude that the reduction in bargaining power of German unions after labor market reforms cannot be the lone driver of European imbalances

The choice of CES production techniques and balanced growth

We show that allowing firms a choice of CES production techniques (via the distribution parameter between capital and labor) can result in a new class of production functions that produces short-run capital-labor complementarity but yields a long-run unit elasticity of substitution. This is shown to occur if we provide a mathematical framework for this choice that maintains strict essentiality of the production process and satisfies the requirement of unit-invariance. The class of production functions derived are consistent with a balanced growth path even in the presence of capital-augmenting technical progress. The approach yields a simple yet powerful way of introducing CES-type production functions in macroeconomic models

Interest rates and output in the long-run

In this paper we argue that both statistics and economic theory-based evidence largely indicate the absence of long run relationships between the real output and the most relevant monetary indicator for the U.K. and the U.S short term interest rates. These findings are not only a full sample result, but also valid in most of the subsamples throughout the second half of the 20th century