Uncertainty and Cooperation: Analytical Results and a Simulated Agent Society

Uncertainty is an important factor that influences social evolution in natural and artificial environments. Here we distinguish between three aspects of uncertainty. Environmental uncertainty is the variance of resources in the environment, perceived uncertainty is the variance of the resource distribution as perceived by the organism and effective uncertainty is the variance of resources effectively enjoyed by individuals. We show analytically that perceived uncertainty is larger than environmental uncertainty and that effective uncertainty is smaller than perceived uncertainty, when cooperation is present. We use an agent society simulation in a two dimensional world for the generation of simulation data as one realisation of the analytical results. Together with our earlier theoretical work, results here show that cooperation can buffer the detrimental effects of uncertainty on the organism. The proposed conceptualisation of uncertainty can help in understanding its effects on social evolution and in designing artificial social environments.Agent-Based Modelling, Cooperation, Social Interaction Simulation, Uncertainty

Efficacy of Alcoholic Anonymous Programmes on Rehabilitation and Recovery of Alcoholics at one selected Recovery Centre in Kenya

Alcoholism is one of the chronic problems of a modern society. Many lives have been lost and thousand others ruined as a result of alcoholism. In the recent times, Alcoholic Anonymous (AA) institutions have been the desirable alternative to help rehabilitate alcoholics and restore them to full recovery. However, just how effective Alcoholic Anonymous is remains a subject of wide speculation. The purpose of this study was to assess the efficacy of Alcoholic Anonymous center in rehabilitation and recovery of alcoholics. The study adopted the ex-post-facto research design. The study was conducted in Asumbi Alcoholics Anonymous Centre in Homa Bay County of Kenya. The target population was 70 alcoholics registered at the Centre. Stratified random sampling was used to select 59 respondents for the study. The data was analyzed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) Version 22.0 Computer programme. Descriptive statistics (frequency tables and percentages) were used in data analysis. The findings of the study showed that following of the 12-steps process by the clients significantly enhanced rehabilitation and recovery of alcoholics at the AA Centre. Key words: Efficacy, Alcoholic Anonymous Programmes, Rehabilitation, Recovery, Alcoholics, Recovery Centre, Keny

Thyroid function in pregnancy

Thyroid hormones are essential for pregnancy maintenance and correct foetal development; even a mild thyroid disturbance can cause potential adverse consequences on obstetric outcomes and foetal well-being. Pregnancy also places substantial demands on the thyroid axis, with consequent increase of thyroid hormone requirements. Thus, it is critical to maintain appropriate levels of iodine and thyroid hormones during pregnancy. Thyroid disorders are relatively common in pregnancy, and a prompt diagnosis of thyroid dysfunction requiring medical intervention is needed. Data from large population cohorts and randomised clinical trials demonstrated that it is challenging to establish precise cut-offs of thyroid dysfunction in pregnancy, and therefore diagnose milder forms of thyroid dysfunction. There is now a growing awareness of the need for greater clarity with regard to gestational thyroid reference ranges which should not only be trimester specific, but also population and laboratory method specific. Sub-optimal thyroid function might also be exacerbated by the presence of thyroid autoantibodies, especially anti-thyroid peroxidase antibodies; such evidence led to a change in the most recent American Thyroid Association guidelines. Overt thyroid dysfunction is associated with adverse outcomes, particularly foetal loss, and early gestational age at delivery; there is universal agreement about the absolute necessity to treat such conditions. On the other hand it is unclear whether marginal thyroid abnormalities, such as subclinical hypothyroidism (ScHypo) and isolated hypothyroxinemia (IH), have sufficient impact to justify widespread screening for thyroid disease in pregnancy. This has led to substantial discrepancies between societal guidelines. More recently concern has also been raised regarding over-treatment of hypothyroidism which may result in adverse neurocognitive outcomes. There is a pressing need for evidence-based studies to determine whether universal thyroid screening in pregnancy is appropriate. Iodine deficiency and endocrine disruptors are also likely to have similar deleterious impacts as thyroid insufficiency and greater clarity is also needed here

Microwave Spectroscopy

Contains reports on three research projects

Why fossil fuel producer subsidies matter

Around the globe, governments have pledged to remove support for coal, oil and gas, noting that such fossil fuel subsidies “undermine efforts to deal with climate change” by keeping greenhouse gas emissions higher than they otherwise would be. Jewell et al. used results of integrated assessment models to infer that eliminating subsidies would yield “limited emission reductions…except in energy-exporting regions”, and described the emission reduction benefits as “small”. This characterization is potentially misleading, and here we use a simple, sector-specific model to show how the emission reductions from producer subsidy reform could be more material than Jewell et al. suggest. Fossil fuel producer subsidies delay a low-carbon transition in ways both material and political, and they deserve greater attention and transparency in global modelling analyses, as well as in policy-making

Familial phenotype differences in PKD1111See Editorial, p. 344.

Familial phenotype differences in PKD1.BackgroundMutations within the PKD1 gene are responsible for the most common and most severe form of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD). Although it is known that there is a wide range of disease severity within PKD1 families, it is uncertain whether differences in clinical severity also occur among PKD1 families.MethodsTen large South Wales ADPKD families with at least 12 affected members were included in the study. From affected members, clinical information was obtained, including survival data and the presence of ADPKD-associated complications. Family members who were at risk of having inherited ADPKD but were proven to be non-affected were included as controls. Linkage and haplotype analysis were performed with highly polymorphic microsatellite markers closely linked to the PKD1 gene. Survival data were analyzed by the Kaplan–Meier method and the log rank test. Logistic regression analysis was used to test for differences in complication rates between families.ResultsHaplotype analysis revealed that each family had PKD1-linked disease with a unique disease-associated haplotype. Interfamily differences were observed in overall survival (P = 0.0004), renal survival (P = 0.0001), hypertension prevalence (P = 0.013), and hernia (P = 0.048). Individuals with hypertension had significantly worse overall (P = 0.0085) and renal (P = 0.03) survival compared with those without hypertension. No statistically significant differences in the prevalence of hypertension and hernia were observed among controls.ConclusionWe conclude that phenotype differences exist between PKD1 families, which, on the basis of having unique disease-associated haplotypes, are likely to be associated with a heterogeneous range of underlying PKD1 mutations

The Production Gap Report: 2020 Special Report

To follow a 1.5°C-consistent pathway, the world will need to decrease fossil fuel production by roughly 6% per year between 2020 and 2030. Countries are instead planning and projecting an average annual increase of 2%, which by 2030 would result in more than double the production consistent with the 1.5°C limit

Goitre and Iodine Deficiency in Europe

The prevalence of endemic iodine-deficiency goitre in Europe has been reduced in many areas by the introduction of iodination programmes. Recent reports, however, show that goitre remains a significant problem and that its prevalence has not decreased in a number of European countries. Hetzel1 has pointed out that the high global prevalence of iodine-deficiency disorders could be eradicated within 5-10 years by introduction of an iodised salt programme. The current World Health Organisation recommendations for iodine intake are between 150 and 300 μg/da