Wählerbefragungen: Erfahrungen im Ausland und in Kroatien

Rad je podijeljen u dva osnovna dijela. U prvome je kratki prikaz razvoja izlaznih anketa u svijetu te opis uobičajenih metodologijskih pristupa i prognostičke valjanosti takvih istraživanja. U drugome je analizirana valjanost izlaznih anketa u Hrvatskoj te vrednovana sa stajališta statističke predikcije izbornih rezultata i predviđanja političkog ishoda izbora. Zaključeno je da su rezultati dosad provedenih izlaznih anketa, iako u statističkom smislu relativno zadovoljavajući, uglavnom sadržavali određene pristranosti koje su, u tijesnim izbornim utrkama, rezultirale pogrešnim predviđanjem redoslijeda vodećih izbornih takmaca. Uz to, u svim istraživanjima obuhvaćenima izbornim situacijama anketni su podaci u javnoj prezentaciji neodgovarajuće interpretirani, jer u projekcijama izbornih rezultata nisu uzete u obzir bitne metodologijske okolnosti koje su mogle utjecati na njihovu prognostičku vrijednost.The paper consists of two main parts. The first comprises a short presentation of the development of exit polls worldwide as well as a description of the most common methodological approaches and prognostic validity of this type of research. The second part analyses the validity of exit polls conducted to date in Croatia and evaluates them from the point of view of statistical prediction of election results as well as predicting the political outcome of the election. It is concluded that the results of previous exit polls, although relatively satisfactory in a statistical sense, mostly contained certain biases which, in close election races, resulted in a mistaken prognosis of the order of the leading electoral competitors. In addition, in all the research regarding election situations, the exit poll data were inadequately interpreted in public presentations because in projections of election results the important methodological circumstances that could influence their prognostic value were not taken into consideration.Die vorliegende Arbeit besteht aus zwei Teilen. Der erste Teil bringt eine kurze Darstellung zur internationalen Entwicklung von Wählerbefragungen sowie eine Beschreibung der üblichen methodologischen Ansätze und der prognostischen Validität solcher Umfragen. Im zweiten Teil analysieren die Verfasser die Resultate bisheriger Wählerbefragungen in Kroatien und werten die statistische Prädiktion der Wahlergebnisse sowie Prognosen zum politischen Fazit der Wahlen aus. Abschließend wird festgehalten, dass die Ergebnisse bisheriger Wählerbefragungen, auch wenn sie statistisch relativ zufriedenstellend waren, im Großen und Ganzen bestimmte Einseitigkeiten offenbarten, die sich im harten Kampf um die Wählerstimmen als verfehlte Prognosen erwiesen. Hinzu kommt, dass in allen untersuchten Fällen die Umfrageergebnisse auf unzutreffende Weise interpretiert wurden, da bei den Projektionen zu Wahlergebnissen bestimmte wesentliche methodologische Umstände nicht in Betracht gezogen wurden, die die prognostische Validität der Wählerbefragung hätten beeinflussen können

Communicating Public Opinion in Post-Fact Politics: Biased Processing of Public Opinion Reports and Potential Journalistic Correctives

People rely on polls and other representations of public opinion in the media to update their political cognitions and behaviors. However, individuals’ preexisting beliefs can color how they perceive opinion reports, and lead them to cherry-pick evidence that is congenial when presented with multiple options. Such biases result in distorted perceptions of public opinion, declining trust in journalism, and political polarization. Moreover, in today’s unprecedentedly polarized and contentious information environment, individuals often encounter contradictory messages from digital data-journalism and numerical evidence is regularly critiqued, fact-checked, or debunked on reasonable or unreasonable grounds. In such a cacophonous context, individuals’ biases in information processing might amplify. Through three large national survey experiments and one smaller study, this dissertation examines how news consumers’ attributes, the content of opinion reports and patterns of media coverage can trigger or mitigate biases in public perceptions. In the first part, I document that individuals process reports of public opinion in biased ways - when they evaluate issue polls, election polls in competitive contexts, and diverse metrics of public opinion. I also show that their levels of knowledge and education moderate the extent of these biases. In the second part, I find that the corrective potential of three journalistic remedies to reduce these biases are minimal and contingent upon individuals’ education levels. I discuss implications for political polarization, trust in the press and representatives, and democratic politics at large.PHDCommunicationUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/143952/1/okuru_1.pd

Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting has always been in the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The lack of a free-lunch theorem implies the need for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle an array of applications. This unique article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We offer a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts, including operations, economics, finance, energy, environment, and social good. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. The list was compiled based on the expertise and interests of the authors. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of the forecasting theory and practice

Total Recall? Examining the Accuracy of Poll Recall during an Election Campaign

Despite a considerable interest in the effects of polls published during election campaigns, we know little about how well people internalize and remember their results. This paper studies how accurately citizens recall poll results and factors potentially influencing this accuracy. Theoretically, we draw on research into the perception of polls and poll effects as well as into media effects on political knowledge in general. Empirically, we investigate recall accuracy based on a representative telephone survey conducted two weeks prior to the 2013 German national election. Respondents demonstrated reasonable accuracy in remembering poll results, when they had been exposed to them, and this did not tend to improve drastically with more exposure. Only in the case of recalling the relative poll ranks as opposed to vote shares was more exposure associated with better recall. Politically knowledgeable individuals were consistently better at recalling the polls, but greater interest in the election did not improve recall beyond this