The Weibull functional form for SEP event spectra

The evolution of the kinetic energy spectra of two Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events has been investigated through the Shannon's differential entropy during the different phases of the selected events, as proposed by [1]. Data from LET and HET instruments onboard the STEREO spacecraft were used to cover a wide energy range from ~ 4 MeV to 100 MeV, as well as EPAM and ERNE data, on board the ACE and SOHO spacecraft, respectively, in the range 1.6 ? 112 MeV. The spectral features were found to be consistent with the Weibull like shape, both during the main phase of the SEP events and over their whole duration. Comparison of results obtained for energetic particles accelerated at corotating interaction regions (CIRs) and transient-related interplanetary shocks are presented in the framework of shock acceleration

Who is going to walk? A review of the factors influencing walking recovery after spinal cord injury

The recovery of walking function is considered of extreme relevance both by patients and physicians. Consequently, in the recent years, recovery of locomotion become a major objective of new pharmacological and rehabilitative interventions. In the last decade, several pharmacological treatment and rehabilitative approaches have been initiated to enhance locomotion capacity of SCI patients. Basic science advances in regeneration of the central nervous system hold promise of further neurological and functional recovery to be studied in clinical trials. Therefore, a precise knowledge of the natural course of walking recovery after SCI and of the factors affecting the prognosis for recovery has become mandatory. In the present work we reviewed the prognostic factors for walking recovery, with particular attention paid to the clinical ones (neurological examination at admission, age, etiology gender, time course of recovery). The prognostic value of some instrumental examinations has also been reviewed. Based on these factors we suggest that a reliable prognosis for walking recovery is possible. Instrumental examinations, in particular evoked potentials could be useful to improve the prognosis

ON THE ORIGINS OF SOLAR EIT WAVES

Abstract : Approximately half of the large-scale coronal waves identified in images obtained by the Extreme-Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory from 1997 March to 1998 June were associated with small solar flares with soft X-ray intensities below C class. The probability of a given flare of this intensity having an associated EIT wave is low. For example, of ~8,000 B-class flares occurring during this 15 month period, only 1% were linked to EIT waves. These results indicate the need for a special condition that distinguishes flares with EIT waves from the vast majority of flares that lack wave association. Various lines of evidence, including the fact that EIT waves have recently been shown to be highly associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs), suggest that this special condition is a CME. A CME is not a sufficient condition for a detectable EIT wave, however, because we calculate that 5 times as many front-side CMEs as EIT waves occurred during this period, after taking the various visibility factors for both phenomena into account. In general, EIT wave association increases with CME speed and width

On Weibull's spectrum of non-relativistic Energetic Particles at ip shocks: observations and theoretical interpretation

Some interplanetary shocks are associated with short-term and sharp particle flux enhancements near the shock front. Such intensity enhancements, known as shock-spike events (SSEs), represent a class of relatively energetic phenomena as they may extend to energies of some tens of MeV or even beyond. Here we present an SSE case study in order to shed light on the nature of the particle acceleration involved in this kind of event. Our observations refer to an SSE registered on 2011 October 3 at 22:23 UT, by STEREO B instrumentation when, at a heliocentric distance of 1.08 au, the spacecraft was swept by a perpendicular shock moving away from the Sun. The main finding from the data analysis is that a Weibull distribution represents a good fitting function to the measured particle spectrum over the energy range from 0.1 to 30 MeV. To interpret such an observational result, we provide a theoretical derivation of the Weibull spectrum in the framework of the acceleration by “killed” stochastic processes exhibiting power-law growth in time of the velocity expectation, such as the classical Fermi process. We find an overall coherence between the experimental values of the Weibull spectrum parameters and their physical meaning within the above scenario. Hence, our approach based on the Weibull distribution proves to be useful for understanding SSEs. With regard to the present event, we also provide an alternative explanation of the Weibull spectrum in terms of shock-surfing acceleration

On Weibull's Spectrum of Nonrelativistic Energetic Particles at IP Shocks: Observations and Theoretical Interpretation

Some interplanetary shocks are associated with short-term and sharp particle flux enhancements near the shock front. Such intensity enhancements, known as shock-spike events (SSEs), represent a class of relatively energetic phenomena as they may extend to energies of some tens of MeV or even beyond. Here we present an SSE case study in order to shed light on the nature of the particle acceleration involved in this kind of event. Our observations refer to an SSE registered on 2011 October 3 at 22:23 UT, by STEREO B instrumentation when, at a heliocentric distance of 1.08 au, the spacecraft was swept by a perpendicular shock moving away from the Sun. The main finding from the data analysis is that a Weibull distribution represents a good fitting function to the measured particle spectrum over the energy range from 0.1 to 30 MeV. To interpret such an observational result, we provide a theoretical derivation of the Weibull spectrum in the framework of the acceleration by "killed" stochastic processes exhibiting power-law growth in time of the velocity expectation, such as the classical Fermi process. We find an overall coherence between the experimental values of the Weibull spectrum parameters and their physical meaning within the above scenario. Hence, our approach based on the Weibull distribution proves to be useful for understanding SSEs. With regard to the present event, we also provide an alternative explanation of the Weibull spectrum in terms of shock-surfing acceleration

Kramers-Moyal analysis of interplanetary magnetic field fluctuations at sub-ion scales

In the framework of statistical time series analysis of complex dynamics we present a multiscale characterization of solar wind turbulence in the near-Earth environment. The data analysis, based on the Markov-process theory, is meant to estimate the Kramers-Moyal coefficients associated with the measured magnetic field fluctuations. In fact, when the scale-to-scale dynamics can be successfully described as a Markov process, first- and second-order Kramers-Moyal coefficients provide a complete description of the dynamics in terms of Langevin stochastic process. The analysis is carried out by using high-resolution magnetic field measurements gathered by Cluster during a fast solar wind period on January 20, 2007. This analysis extends recent findings in the near-Sun environment with the aim of testing the universality of the Markovian nature of the magnetic field fluctuations in the sub-ion/kinetic domain

A Short-term ESPERTA-based Forecast Tool for Moderate-to-extreme Solar Proton Events

The ESPERTA (Empirical model for Solar Proton Event Real Time Alert) forecast tool has a Probability of Detection (POD) of 63% for all >10 MeV events with proton peak intensity ≥10 pfu (i.e., ≥S1 events, S1 referring to minor storms on the NOAA Solar Radiation Storms scale), from 1995 to 2014 with a false alarm rate (FAR) of 38% and a median (minimum) warning time (WT) of ∼4.8 (0.4) hr. The NOAA space weather scale includes four additional categories: moderate (S2), strong (S3), severe (S4), and extreme (S5). As S1 events have only minor impacts on HF radio propagation in the polar regions, the effective threshold for significant space radiation effects appears to be the S2 level (100 pfu), above which both biological and space operation impacts are observed along with increased effects on HF propagation in the polar regions. We modified the ESPERTA model to predict ≥S2 events and obtained a POD of 75% (41/55) and an FAR of 24% (13/54) for the 1995-2014 interval with a median (minimum) WT of ∼1.7 (0.2) hr based on predictions made at the time of the S1 threshold crossing. The improved performance of ESPERTA for ≥S2 events is a reflection of the big flare syndrome, which postulates that the measures of the various manifestations of eruptive solar flares increase as one considers increasingly larger events

A novel approach in magnetic cloud-driven Forbush decrease modeling

Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are large-scale solar wind disturbances propagating from the Sun and causing a depression of the galactic-cosmic ray (GCR) intensity known as Forbush decrease (FD). IC- MEs generally contain coherent plasma structures called magnetic clouds (MCs). A unique and powerful data analysis tool allowing for the study of the quasi-3-D configuration of a MC is the Grad-Shafranov (GS) recons - truction. The aim of this work is to investigate the role played by the MC configuration in the formation of a FD. A suited full-orbit test-particle simulation has been developed in order to evaluate FD amplitude and time pro- file produced by the MC obtained with the GS reconstruction. Particle trajectories are computed starting from an isotropic flux outside the MC region. In addition, particle diffusion has been modeled by superimposing a small-angle scattering over the unperturbed charged particle motion at each time step. The model allows us to investigate the MC effect on GCR propagation and to study the energy dependence of the physical processes in - volved, as it provides an estimate of ground-based GCR counts observations at different latitudes. A comparison between model results and both space-based cosmic-ray measurements in L1 and ground-based observations suggests a major role of drifts in producing the FD and a reduced contribution of GCR particle diffusion

QUASI-BIENNIAL MODULATION OF SOLAR NEUTRINO FLUX AND SOLAR AND GALACTIC COSMIC RAYS BY SOLAR CYCLIC ACTIVITY

Using some solar activity indicators such as sunspot areas and green-line coronal emission during the period 1974-2001, we find that the quasi-biennial periodicity is a fundamental mode of solar variability. We provide evidence for the quasi-biennial modulation of the solar neutrino flux, thus supporting the hypothesis of a connection between solar neutrinos and solar magnetic fields, probably through direct interaction with the neutrino magnetic moment. The same periodic modulation has been detected when fluxes of solar energetic protons and galactic cosmic rays are investigated. These modulation results significantly correlate to that of the neutrino flux. Finally, the superposition of the quasi-biennial cycle to the eleven-year cycle can explain the Gnevyshev Gap phenomenon