China�s exchange rate policy: the case against abandoning the dollar peg

This paper critically comments on the policy literature surrounding China�s exchange rate regime. It first seeks to expose as myths several popularly raised contentions regarding the dollar peg employed by China, including the belief that the RMB is clearly undervalued and that its value is a prominent cause of the U.S trade deficit. The paper then describes a consensus position that has emerged which argues that in the interests of better promoting its own macroeconomic stability, China should abandon the peg in favor of a more flexible exchange rate regime. We see numerous weaknesses in this position but a few stand out. Available data do not suggest that flexible regimes outperform fixed regimes in terms of inflationary outcomes. Moving to a flexible regime is also far from proximate policy response to the problems that are in evidence in China�s economy. Institutional realities that make moving to a flexible regime difficult also appear to have been seriously overlooked. The paper concludes by noting that in the longer term moving to a more flexible regime may be in China�s best interests. But for now, the focus needs to be firmly in the area of domestic financial reform.

The Persistence Characteristics of Output Growth in China: How Important is the Business Cycle?

Output growth volatility at the macroeconomic level reflects the impact of demand and supply-side shocks. These shocks differ in terms of the persistence of their impact on output growth with the former typically being responsible for cyclical fluctuations of the business cycle variety. This paper uses Spectral Density Analysis to decompose the persistence characteristics of output growth in China since 1953, including in its provinces and regions. An important finding is that the persistence characteristics of output growth changed dramatically in most provinces during the reform period to the extent that only a minority of output growth variance can be attributed to business cycle fluctuations. This finding points to a number of challenges for policy-makers, including questions over the expected effectiveness of using macroeconomic policies that are intended to smooth business cycle fluctuations when the nature of output growth volatility is considerably more complex.

Chinese Investment in Australia

Chinese investment in Australia is emerging as an important part of the Australia-China economic relationship. This paper overviews the major characteristics of Chinese investment in Australia up to the present - its volume, form, sectoral distribution and the major players. It then discusses the policies that have been driving recent increases and those that are likely to have a more profound impact over the longer term.

Economic Integration Between China And ASEAN

With the signing in November 2001 of a China-ASEAN free trade agreement due for completion in 2010, the question of the current degree of economic integration between China and ASEAN becomes important. This papers uses international parity conditions to investigate this issue. The results indicate that China is already highly integrated with ASEAN with respect to trade in goods and services. Financial integration however remains significantly incomplete. Given that external bodies such as the WTO will increasingly dictate the pace of China's future financial liberalization, the main implication of these findings is that complimentary reforms, such as the upgrading of prudential frameworks, need to be completed as a matter of urgency in both China and ASEAN.

The Impact of Stock Markets on China's Economic Development: Some Preliminary Assessments

The role that stock markets should be afforded in economic development policy in China is the subject of debate. Some argue that they are essential to reforming state-owned enterprises (SOE's) and overcoming deficiencies in China's credit markets. However, others claim they are not necessary institutions for achieving high levels of economic development and are more likely to be destabilizing. This paper seeks to shed light on the impact that stock markets have had on China's economic development to date. Available data suggests that listing SOE's has been important in terms of raising funds for their reform. However, the corporate governance impact has been ineffectual and stock markets were also an insignificant source of funding for non-state owned firms. Finally, on a macro-level, their impact on the overall level of savings mobilization and the allocative efficiency of capital has been negligible. The policy conclusions are that, firstly, the state should begin trading the shares that it controls, and secondly, non-state owned firms should also be allowed to list.

External Financial Liberalization and Foreign Debt in China

China has not been a large net capital importer during the reform period (1979-present). This is surprising because economic theory predicts it should have been in light of its low capital - labour ratio. One possible explanation with important policy implications is that foreign capital inflows may have been restricted due to the slow pace of external financial liberalization. The empirical analysis conducted in this paper lends support to this hypothesis. However, before policy makers in China can look upon external financial liberalization as a growth-inducing strategy, fiscal reform and greater levels of domestic financial liberalization are first needed.

Has minority foreign investment in China�s banks improved their cost efficiency?

Since 2001, foreign investors have been permitted to acquire minority ownership stakes in China�s banks. This paper assesses whether there is any evidence of a cost efficiency payoff in those banks that have taken on foreign investment. Data Envelopment Analysis is first used to generate measures of cost efficiency for China�s banks over the period 2001-2006. A second stage regression is then performed to determine whether foreign investment has an impact on cost efficiency. The results indicate a positive impact, although one that is only marginally significant. Policy implications are discussed.

The Impact of Stock Markets on China's Economic Development: Some Preliminary Assessments

The role that stock markets should be afforded in economic development policy in China is the subject of debate. Some argue that they are essential to reforming state-owned enterprises (SOE's) and overcoming deficiencies in China's credit markets. However, others claim they are not necessary institutions for achieving high levels of economic development and are more likely to be destabilizing. This paper seeks to shed light on the impact that stock markets have had on China's economic development to date. Available data suggests that listing SOE's has been important in terms of raising funds for their reform. However, the corporate governance impact has been ineffectual and stock markets were also an insignificant source of funding for non-state owned firms. Finally, on a macro-level, their impact on the overall level of savings mobilization and the allocative efficiency of capital has been negligible. The policy conclusions are that, firstly, the state should begin trading the shares that it controls, and secondly, non-state owned firms should also be allowed to list

Efficiency Amongst China’s Banks:A DEA Analysis Five Years after WTO Entry

WTO entry in 2001 heralded a new stage in the reform of China’s banking sector. With the reality that foreign banks would be extended national treatment by the end of 2006, China’s banks faced the imperative to reform in earnest. They began reforms from a variety of different starting points and have pursued a variety of different reform approaches. Five years on, this paper assesses efficiency levels in 11 of China’s most prominent banks. The results, obtained using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), suggest that differences in efficiency levels are actually quite small. On the one hand, this finding is encouraging because it suggests that few of China’s major banks lag behind the pack. On the other hand, it also implies that efficiency levels almost certainly do lag in China’s less prominent banks, which together still account for more than 40 per cent of total banking system assets.

The globalization of China's financial sector: Policies, consequences and lessons

The variety of country experiences with financial sector globalization has precipitated the emergence of a large literature discussing policies, consequences and lessons learned. China's policies and performance makes an important contribution to this discussion. In contrast to many of its neighbours, China maintains a relatively detailed system of capital controls. During the Asian financial crisis that sent most countries in the region into negative rates of growth, China continued to expand rapidly despite having a financial system that by most objective measures was the worst in Asia. This apparent contradiction has led many researchers to argue that an explanation must lie in China's usage of capital controls. This paper first reviews the policies that China has undertaken toward the globalization of its financial sector. The consequences of these policies are then summarised and policy implications are drawn for other countries embarking upon the path of financial sector globalization. It is emphasized that while China makes extensive use of capital controls, many have readily been circumvented resulting in considerable de-facto external financial liberalization. Therefore, the claim that capital controls are the reason behind China's impressive growth performance should not be over-stated