A new seismic stratigraphy for the Agulhas Plateau resembles major paleo-oceanographic changes in the Indian-Atlantic Ocean gateway since the late Miocene

The exchange of shallow and deep water masses between the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic constitutes an integral inter-ocean link in the global thermohaline circulation. In the gateway south of South Africa long-term changes in deep water flow during the Cenozoic have been initially studied using seismic reflection profiles. But the seismic stratigraphy was poorly constrained and not further resolved within the time period from the late Miocene to present. In particular, there were limited Pliocene records that could be used to investigate the influence of climatic (e.g. Antarctic ice volume) and tectonic (e.g. closure of the Central American seaway) on the deep-water variability. In 2016 the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 361 (“SAFARI”) recovered complete high-resolution Plio-/Pleistocene sediment sections at six drilling locations on the southeast African margin and in the Indian-Atlantic ocean gateway. Here, we present results from Site U1475 (Agulhas Plateau), a location proximal to the entrance of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) to the Southern Ocean and South Indian Ocean. The site is located over a sediment drift in 2669 m water depth and comprises a complete carbonate rich (74 – 85%) stratigraphic section of the last ~7 Ma. We edited high-resolution data sets of density, velocity and natural gamma radiation measured at Site U1475 and corrected them to in-situ conditions. Cross correlations show that acoustic impedance contrasts and thus the formation of seismic reflectors are mainly due to density changes that are caused by climate-induced variations in biogenic vs. terrigenous sediment input. The calculated synthetic seismograms show an excellent correlation of drilling results with the site survey seismic field record, provide an accurate traveltime to depth conversion, and allow preliminary age assignments (± 0.3 Ma) based on the shipboard bio- and magnetostratigraphy. The most prominent reflectors are associated with compositional changes related to late Pleistocene glacial/interglacial variability, the middle Pleistocene transition, and the onset of the northern hemisphere glaciation. Furthermore, a peculiar early Pliocene interval (~ 5.3 – 4.0 Ma) bounded by two reflectors is characterized by 3-fold elevated sedimentation rates (> 10 cm/ka) and the occurrence of sediment waves. We argue that this enhanced sediment transport to the Agulhas Plateau was caused by a reorganization of the bottom current circulation pattern due to maximized inflow of NADW. Rhythmic bedding within the Pliocene sediment wave sequence likely reflects the 100-kyr orbital cycle. On the other hand, colour reflectance and natural gamma radiation show highest variability in the precession band. The very regular response of the core logging data to orbital forcing suggests that the shipboard age model can be significantly improved by cyclostratigraphy

Competing risks analysis for neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio as a predictor of diabetic retinopathy incidence in the Scottish population

Background: Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is a major sight-threatening microvascular complication in individuals with diabetes. Systemic inflammation combined with oxidative stress is thought to capture most of the complexities involved in the pathology of diabetic retinopathy. A high level of neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is an indicator of abnormal immune system activity. Current estimates of the association of NLR with diabetes and its complications are almost entirely derived from cross-sectional studies, suggesting that the nature of the reported association may be more diagnostic than prognostic. Therefore, in the present study, we examined the utility of NLR as a biomarker to predict the incidence of DR in the Scottish population.Methods: The incidence of DR was defined as the time to the first diagnosis of R1 or above grade in the Scottish retinopathy grading scheme from type 2 diabetes diagnosis. The effect of NLR and its interactions were explored using a competing risks survival model adjusting for other risk factors and accounting for deaths. The Fine and Gray subdistribution hazard model (FGR) was used to predict the effect of NLR on the incidence of DR.Results: We analysed data from 23,531 individuals with complete covariate information. At 10 years, 8416 (35.8%) had developed DR and 2989 (12.7%) were lost to competing events (death) without developing DR and 12,126 individuals did not have DR. The median (interquartile range) level of NLR was 2.04 (1.5 to 2.7). The optimal NLR cut-off value to predict retinopathy incidence was 3.04. After accounting for competing risks at 10 years, the cumulative incidence of DR and deaths without DR were 50.7% and 21.9%, respectively. NLR was associated with incident DR in both Cause-specific hazard (CSH = 1.63; 95% CI: 1.28–2.07) and FGR models the subdistribution hazard (sHR = 2.24; 95% CI: 1.70–2.94). Both age and HbA 1c were found to modulate the association between NLR and the risk of DR.Conclusions: The current study suggests that NLR has a promising potential to predict DR incidence in the Scottish population, especially in individuals less than 65 years and in those with well-controlled glycaemic status.</p

Expedition 361 summary

International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 361 drilled six sites on the southeast African margin (southwest Indian Ocean) and in the Indian-Atlantic Ocean gateway, from 30 January to 31 March 2016. In total, 5175 m of core was recovered, with an average recovery of 102%, during 29.7 days of on-site operations. The sites, situated in the Mozambique Channel at locations directly influenced by discharge from the Zambezi and Limpopo River catchments, the Natal Valley, the Agulhas Plateau, and Cape Basin, were targeted to reconstruct the history of the greater Agulhas Current system over the past ~5 My. The Agulhas Current is the strongest western boundary current in the Southern Hemisphere, transporting some 70 Sv of warm, saline surface water from the tropical Indian Ocean along the East African margin to the tip of Africa. Exchanges of heat and moisture with the atmosphere influence southern African climates, including individual weather systems such as extratropical cyclone formation in the region and rainfall patterns. Recent ocean model and paleoceanographic data further point at a potential role of the Agulhas Current in controlling the strength and mode of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the Late Pleistocene. Spillage of saline Agulhas water into the South Atlantic stimulates buoyancy anomalies that may influence basin-wide AMOC, with implications for convective activity in the North Atlantic and global climate change. The main objectives of the expedition were to establish the role of the Agulhas Current in climatic changes during the Pliocene–Pleistocene, specifically to document the dynamics of the Indian-Atlantic Ocean gateway circulation during this time, to examine the connection of the Agulhas leakage and AMOC, and to address the influence of the Agulhas Current on African terrestrial climates and coincidences with human evolution. Additionally, the expedition set out to fulfill the needs of Ancillary Project Letter number 845, consisting of high-resolution interstitial water sampling to help constrain the temperature and salinity profiles of the ocean during the Last Glacial Maximum. The expedition made major strides toward fulfilling each of these objectives. The recovered sequences allowed generation of complete spliced stratigraphic sections that range from 0 to between ~0.13 and 7 Ma. This sediment will provide decadal- to millennial-scale climatic records that will allow answering the paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic questions set out in the drilling proposal